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GSW2.74HOU1.57via Polymarket

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 11

Updated Nov 10, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

HOU

Statz pick

Houston Rockets to win

We give the Houston Rockets a 64% chance, against 36% for the Golden State Warriors. See the full projection →

64%
HOU to win
Polymarket1.57

The Statz model favours the Houston Rockets at home with a 64% win probability and a model line of -4.7 against the Golden State Warriors. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market spread to compare. The injury that matters is Houston's centre depth, with Clint Capela and Steven Adams out.

The Golden State Warriors visit the Houston Rockets on Wednesday 11 November, with tip at 9:30 PM ET. The Statz model makes Houston the favourite at 64%, with a model line of -4.7. The market has not spoken yet: no bookmaker has posted a line for this game.

How the teams arrive

Houston are 7-3 over their last 10, all of them this season. They average 114.2 points for and concede 106.0. The run has swings. They beat Milwaukee 132-100 on the road and Denver 110-100 at home on Monday. They also lost 99-102 at Phoenix and 107-117 to Minnesota at home. The Rockets are solid rather than steady.

Golden State are 8-2 over the same window and have won their last eight. They average 121.9 points for and allow 109.6. Their latest result was a 138-87 win over New Orleans, and they beat Orlando 126-119 before that. Seven of the ten games were at home, so this is a harder test on the road. The two losses were 122-131 at Phoenix and 108-111 to Memphis, both early in the season.

Team news and lineups

Houston's issue is the centre spot. Clint Capela is out with an ankle sprain and could return on 15 or 16 November. Steven Adams is out with a soleus strain and may be back on 15 November. Oscar Tshiebwe is listed day-to-day. He has filled in for six straight games at 6.8 minutes a night. If all three backup centres are unavailable, Houston's forwards will play small-ball minutes at the five behind the starter. That costs rebounding and rim protection in the bench units.

Golden State have more names on the list, but most are long-term. Kristaps Porzingis has stepped away from basketball. Jimmy Butler is recovering from a torn ACL and Moses Moody from a patellar tendon rupture. Neither is close to a return. The wing rotation is thin as a result.

The near-term items are the day-to-day ones. Gary Payton II (knee) rested on Monday and has Wednesday as his next chance to play. Brandon Williams left Monday's game with a left hamstring injury and is day-to-day. Will Richard is out with a torn thumb UCL and is weighing surgery or a splint. Any absence at guard puts more minutes on the rest of the backcourt.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant is projected for 20.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists. He leads Houston's scoring and is the clearest source of offence against a Golden State side missing wing depth.

Alperen Sengun

Alperen Sengun is projected for 19.2 points, 8.4 rebounds and 5.9 assists. With Houston's centre reserves out, his minutes and his passing from the post carry extra weight.

Jabari Smith Jr.

Jabari Smith Jr. is projected for 15.1 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.3 threes. He is the forward most likely to be asked to cover some centre minutes.

Stephen Curry

Stephen Curry is projected for 21.4 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 3.4 threes. The three-point volume is what keeps Golden State within range on the road.

Yaxel Lendeborg

Yaxel Lendeborg is projected for 17.6 points and 6.0 rebounds. With Butler and Moody out, he is the main secondary scorer.

Brandin Podziemski

Brandin Podziemski is projected for 14.5 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.1 assists. He adds playmaking and 2.0 threes, and his role grows if either day-to-day guard sits.

Statz prediction

The model takes Houston. It gives the Rockets a 64% win probability and projects a home margin that translates to a line of -4.7, with Golden State at +4.7 and a 36% chance. It projects 113.6 points for Houston and 108.9 for Golden State, a total of 222.4.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make, because the market is missing. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so there is no total lean either. Check the NBA odds page once lines appear. The model's -4.7 and 222.4 are the numbers to measure them against.

The case for Houston rests on home court and a defence that concedes 106.0 a game. The case against is that Golden State have won eight straight and score 121.9 a game, with Curry's threes keeping them live. Houston's thin centre depth is the main risk to the pick.

Statz pick: Houston Rockets, model line -4.7, 64% win probability.

Lines move before tip, so recheck the injury reports and any posted price.

GSW @ HOU questions

Who does the Statz model favour in Warriors at Rockets?
The model favours the Houston Rockets with a 64% win probability, against 36% for the Golden State Warriors. Its line is Rockets -4.7, which makes Houston the clear but not overwhelming home favourite for Wednesday 11 November.
What is the model total for Warriors vs Rockets?
The model projects a total of 222.4 points, with the Houston Rockets at 113.6 and the Golden State Warriors at 108.9. No market total has been posted, so there is no over or under lean to give yet.
What time is Warriors at Rockets?
Tip is at 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday 11 November 2026, in Houston. The Rockets are the home side and the Golden State Warriors are the visitors.
Has a market line been posted for this game?
No. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline yet, so Statz cannot compare the model line against the market. The model line of Rockets -4.7 is the reference point once prices appear.
Which injuries matter most for Houston?
Clint Capela (ankle) and Steven Adams (calf) are out, and Oscar Tshiebwe is day-to-day. That leaves the Rockets short of centres, so forwards may play small-ball minutes at the five behind Alperen Sengun.
How have the Warriors played recently?
Golden State are 8-2 over their last 10 and have won eight straight. They average 121.9 points for and 109.6 against, and their latest result was a 138-87 home win over New Orleans.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Golden State Warriors or Houston Rockets?

The Statz model favours the Houston Rockets with a 64% win probability, leaving the Golden State Warriors at 36%. Over their last five games the Houston Rockets are 3-2 and the Golden State Warriors are 5-0. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets?

No spread or total is posted yet for Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets?

For Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets, the model projects Kevin Durant for 20.8 points and Alperen Sengun for 19.2 points for the Houston Rockets. For the Golden State Warriors it projects Stephen Curry for 21.4 points and Yaxel Lendeborg for 17.6 points.