Brooklyn Nets vs New York Knicks Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 2

The Knicks sit at 2-4 after six games, and the run reads L W W L L L, most recent first. They lost 93-98 at Philadelphia on their last outing. Before that came a 133-127 win at Chicago and a 111-97 home win over Detroit. At Madison Square Garden they have lost to Orlando 102-111 and to Philadelphia 100-106. They are scoring 107.0 and conceding 107.7 on average, so the margin is thin. A 13.1-point projected margin therefore rests on the opponent more than on New York's own form.

The Nets are 0-5, five straight losses, and they travel after a game at Indiana on Sunday 1 November. The defence is the problem: they concede 121.2 a game against 110.2 scored. They lost 109-136 at home to Indiana and 94-110 at home to Detroit. They have been close twice, falling 124-125 at Boston and 121-125 at Cleveland. That shows the offence can compete. It has not been enough to cover for a leaky defence.

The Knicks list Jose Alvarado as out with a left ankle sprain. He has missed four straight games and is considered week-to-week, with a return date of 4 November. Tyler Kolek is expected to keep seeing extra minutes at guard. That is a bench reshuffle rather than a hit to the main rotation, and it barely changes the model's view of New York.

The Nets list six players as out. Egor Demin has a right leg bone bruise and is due to be re-evaluated, with a return date of 7 November. Tyler Bilodeau is a two-way player whose absence should not affect the rotation. Joshua Jefferson, Grant Nelson and Ben Saraf are on G League duty.

The one to watch is Mikel Brown Jr. He sat out Sunday with back injury management, and reporting says he should return for this game, with a listed return date of 2 November. His status is still shown as out, so check it before tip. If he is missing, minutes shift to Nolan Traoré and Terance Mann. On the second night of a back-to-back, that would stretch a thin backcourt further.

The model takes the Knicks. It gives them 83% to win, with a model line of -13.1 and a projected score of 117.1 to 104.1. The projected total is 221.2.

There is no market line to compare it with. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total, so the model-versus-market check cannot be made, and there is no total lean until a number appears. When a line is posted, the question is whether the market gives the Nets a cushion larger or smaller than 13.1 points. A line well short of 13.1 would suggest value on New York. A line near or beyond it would remove that edge.

The case for the Knicks is straightforward. The Nets are 0-5 and concede 121.2 a game, and several guards are out or in doubt. The caution is that New York's own form is mixed, at 2-4 with a margin of only 107.0 to 107.7.

Statz pick: New York Knicks, 83% win probability, model line -13.1.

Lines move before tip, and Brown's status could shift the price, so check the NBA odds page again closer to the game.