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Brooklyn Nets vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 11

Updated Nov 10, with the latest lineups and odds

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NOP

Statz pick

New Orleans Pelicans to win

We give the New Orleans Pelicans a 62% chance, against 38% for the Brooklyn Nets. See the full projection →

62%
NOP to win
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The Statz model favours the New Orleans Pelicans at 62% to beat the Brooklyn Nets, with a model line of -4.0 and a projected total of 228.1. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market price to compare. The injury that matters most is Zion Williamson, listed day-to-day after a rest day.

The Brooklyn Nets visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday 11 November, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Pelicans the favourite at 62% and sets its line at -4.0. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline yet, so the market side of the picture is still empty.

How the teams arrive

New Orleans is 4-6 over its last 10 and arrives on a three-game losing run. The sequence is lopsided in both directions. The Pelicans lost 138-87 at Golden State and 139-123 at the Clippers in their last two, then won four straight before that, including a 135-134 escape at Memphis and a 121-99 home win over Atlanta. They have scored 117.2 a game and allowed 122.3 across the 10. Scoring has rarely been the problem. Defence has. They also lost 115-109 at home to Minnesota, so the home floor has not been a safe edge.

Brooklyn is 2-8 over its last 10 and has lost its last two. The Nets lost 130-93 at Dallas and 124-121 at Atlanta, after beating Charlotte 114-104 at home. They have averaged 106.7 points and conceded 115.7. Close losses at Boston (125-124) and Cleveland (125-121) show they can hang around, but the Dallas result shows how badly it can go. This is a road game for a team that has struggled to score.

Team news and lineups

New Orleans has the longer list, but most of it is day-to-day. Zion Williamson sat the Golden State game for rest and should be back. Trey Murphy III missed that game with bilateral patellar tendinopathy and has this game as his next chance to play. Trendon Watford is listed day-to-day with an ankle sprain and his timeline is uncertain. Yves Missi is out with a knee injury and has no timetable.

The Murphy and Williamson statuses matter most. If both play, the Pelicans have their full wing and forward rotation back. If Murphy sits again, minutes shift to Herbert Jones, Saddiq Bey and Bennedict Mathurin, which thins out the shooting. Missi's absence leaves the centre rotation short.

For Brooklyn, Mikel Brown Jr. is listed day-to-day. The rookie had logged five straight double-digit scoring games before his last absence. If he is out, Terance Mann should see more bench minutes and Keon Ellis could get involved. Egor Demin is out with a right leg bone bruise and was set for re-evaluation in a week. Grant Nelson signed a two-way deal and is expected to spend most of his time in the G League.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Zion Williamson

Zion Williamson is projected for 17.3 points, 4.6 rebounds and 2.4 assists. He is the Pelicans' main source of interior pressure, and his status decides how the offence is built.

Jeremiah Fears

Jeremiah Fears is projected for 15.5 points, 3.9 rebounds and 3.9 assists, with 1.4 threes. He drives the guard play and is the likeliest creator if the wings are thin.

Dejounte Murray

Dejounte Murray is projected for 14.9 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.1 assists. His rebounding and passing give New Orleans a second ball handler who can steady the pace.

Michael Porter Jr.

Michael Porter Jr. leads the Nets with a projected 21.5 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.9 threes. Brooklyn's scoring has been thin, so his shooting is the clearest route to staying close.

Julius Randle

Julius Randle is projected for 19.3 points, 6.1 rebounds and 4.4 assists. He is the Nets' second option and their main playmaker among the forwards.

Danny Wolf

Danny Wolf is projected for 10.2 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.3 assists. His minutes in the frontcourt matter against a Pelicans side that may be missing size.

Statz prediction

The model takes the New Orleans Pelicans. It gives them a 62% win probability and a line of -4.0, with projected scoring of 116.1 for New Orleans and 112.0 for the Brooklyn Nets. The model total is 228.1.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make because the market is missing. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total, so we cannot say whether the number offers value or lean over or under against a posted total. Wait for a price before acting on the model line.

The case for the Pelicans rests on form, not dominance. They have the better last 10 (4-6 against 2-8) and score more per game, while the Nets have struggled at both ends. The risk is their recent defence and the open status of Murphy and Williamson.

Statz pick: New Orleans Pelicans, model line -4.0, 62% win probability.

Lines move before tip, and the injury news above can shift them, so check the latest NBA odds before you decide.

BKN @ NOP questions

Who is favoured in Brooklyn Nets vs New Orleans Pelicans?
The Statz model favours the New Orleans Pelicans at 62%, with the Brooklyn Nets at 38%. The model line is Pelicans -4.0, and projected scoring is 116.1 to 112.0. No market line has been posted yet.
What time is Nets vs Pelicans on 11 November?
Tip is at 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday 11 November, in New Orleans. The Pelicans are the home team and the Brooklyn Nets are the visitors.
What is the model total for Nets vs Pelicans?
The model projects a total of 228.1 points, split 116.1 for the Pelicans and 112.0 for the Nets. No bookmaker total is posted yet, so there is no market number to compare it against.
Which Pelicans players are injured?
Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III and Trendon Watford are all day-to-day, and Yves Missi is out with a knee injury. Williamson sat a recent game for rest and was expected to be available for this one.
How have the Nets played recently?
Brooklyn is 2-8 over its last 10 and has lost its last two, 130-93 at Dallas and 124-121 at Atlanta. The Nets are averaging 106.7 points and conceding 115.7 over that stretch.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Brooklyn Nets or New Orleans Pelicans?

The Statz model favours the New Orleans Pelicans with a 62% win probability, leaving the Brooklyn Nets at 38%. Over their last five games the New Orleans Pelicans are 2-3 and the Brooklyn Nets are 2-3. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans?

No spread or total is posted yet for Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans?

For Brooklyn Nets at New Orleans Pelicans, the model projects Zion Williamson for 17.3 points and Jeremiah Fears for 15.5 points for the New Orleans Pelicans. For the Brooklyn Nets it projects Michael Porter Jr. for 21.5 points and Julius Randle for 19.3 points.