Yes, Tunisia have taken 28 points over 10 CAF World Cup Qualifiers games in 2026, 10.37 more than the 17.63 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Tunisia create 1.63 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 CAF World Cup Qualifiers games in 2026, 16.26 in all, and have scored 22 goals from those chances, 5.74 more than that xG would expect.
Tunisia allow 0.93 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 CAF World Cup Qualifiers games in 2026, 9.25 in all, and have conceded 0 goals from those chances, 9.25 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Tunisia have taken 10.4 points more than their chances warranted over 10 games: +5.7 goals against their xG, and +9.3 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/ | 10 | 16.26 | 22 | +5.74 | 9.25 | 0 | +9.25 | 17.63 | 28 | +10.37 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 9.02 | 15 | +5.98 | 4.51 | 0 | +4.51 | 9.31 | 15 | +5.69 |
| Home | 5 | 9.76 | 13 | +3.24 | 4.48 | 0 | +4.48 | 9.98 | 15 | +5.02 |
| Away | 5 | 6.50 | 9 | +2.50 | 4.77 | 0 | +4.77 | 7.65 | 13 | +5.35 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Namibia (H) | 3-0 | 1.12 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | São Tomé and PrÃncipe (A) | 0-6 | 2.45 | 0.92 | 2.29 | 3 | W |
| 8 Sep | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Equatorial Guinea (A) | 0-1 | 0.50 | 0.82 | 1.01 | 3 | L |
| 4 Sep | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Liberia (H) | 3-0 | 1.95 | 0.72 | 2.20 | 3 | W |
| 24 Mar | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Malawi (H) | 2-0 | 3.00 | 0.78 | 2.56 | 3 | W |
| 19 Mar | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Liberia (A) | 0-1 | 1.19 | 1.16 | 1.38 | 3 | W |
| 9 Jun | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Namibia (A) | 0-0 | 0.61 | 0.92 | 1.05 | 1 | L |
| 5 Jun | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Equatorial Guinea (H) | 1-0 | 1.21 | 0.89 | 1.60 | 3 | W |
| 21 Nov | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Malawi (A) | 0-1 | 1.75 | 0.95 | 1.92 | 3 | W |
| 17 Nov | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | São Tomé and PrÃncipe (H) | 4-0 | 2.48 | 0.82 | 2.37 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane | midfielder | 5 | 203 | 0.00 | 4 | +4.00 | 0.00 |
| Elias Saad | attacker | 6 | 295 | 0.00 | 3 | +3.00 | 0.00 |
| Ferjani Sassi | midfielder | 6 | 347 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Hazem Mastouri | attacker | 6 | 398 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Ali Abdi | defender | 8 | 719 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Yassine Meriah | defender | 5 | 450 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Hamza Rafia | midfielder | 3 | 239 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Elias Achouri | attacker | 6 | 453 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Hannibal | midfielder | 6 | 433 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Firas Chaouat | attacker | 4 | 117 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismaël Gharbi | attacker | 4 | 175 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tunisia | 10 | 16.3 | 22 | 9.3 | 0 | 17.6 | 28 | +10.4 |
| 2 | Congo DR | 11 | 13.2 | 16 | 10.7 | 6 | 16.7 | 25 | +8.3 |
| 3 | Gabon | 11 | 13.5 | 23 | 10.9 | 13 | 16.8 | 25 | +8.2 |
| 4 | Algeria | 10 | 13.4 | 24 | 8.6 | 8 | 16.9 | 25 | +8.1 |
| 5 | Ghana | 10 | 14.8 | 23 | 9.3 | 6 | 17.1 | 25 | +7.9 |
| 6 | Morocco | 8 | 14.6 | 22 | 4.7 | 2 | 17.3 | 24 | +6.7 |
| 7 | Cape Verde Islands | 10 | 13.1 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 16.6 | 23 | +6.4 |
| 8 | Senegal | 10 | 16.1 | 22 | 9.2 | 3 | 18 | 24 | +6 |
| 9 | Côte d'Ivoire | 10 | 17.7 | 25 | 5.7 | 0 | 20.2 | 26 | +5.8 |
| 10 | Madagascar | 10 | 11.2 | 17 | 11.7 | 12 | 13.4 | 19 | +5.6 |
| 11 | Egypt | 9 | 15.4 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 17.7 | 23 | +5.3 |
| 12 | Libya | 10 | 9.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | +4.5 |
| 13 | Niger | 7 | 7.4 | 8 | 11.1 | 10 | 7.6 | 12 | +4.4 |
| 14 | Burkina Faso | 10 | 15.5 | 23 | 10.5 | 8 | 16.9 | 21 | +4.1 |
| 15 | Mozambique | 9 | 8.4 | 11 | 10.2 | 16 | 10.9 | 15 | +4.1 |
| 16 | Benin | 10 | 10 | 12 | 9.4 | 11 | 13.7 | 17 | +3.3 |
| 17 | Sierra Leone | 8 | 8.5 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 10.7 | 14 | +3.3 |
| 18 | South Africa | 10 | 13.5 | 17 | 7.1 | 6 | 18.1 | 21 | +2.9 |
| 19 | Uganda | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 7.5 | 6 | 15.3 | 18 | +2.7 |
| 20 | Sudan | 10 | 10 | 8 | 13.4 | 6 | 11.2 | 13 | +1.8 |
| 21 | Liberia | 9 | 8.9 | 10 | 11.5 | 11 | 10.5 | 12 | +1.5 |
| 22 | Lesotho | 10 | 8 | 6 | 17.7 | 14 | 7.6 | 9 | +1.4 |
| 23 | Guinea | 10 | 11.7 | 11 | 10.1 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| 24 | Cameroon | 10 | 16.3 | 17 | 9.6 | 6 | 18.1 | 18 | -0.1 |
| 25 | Comoros | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 9.6 | 13 | 15.1 | 15 | -0.1 |
| 26 | Tanzania | 7 | 5.6 | 3 | 8.3 | 7 | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 |
| 27 | Central African Republic | 10 | 8.3 | 11 | 16.8 | 24 | 8.6 | 8 | -0.6 |
| 28 | Ethiopia | 9 | 8.7 | 9 | 14.3 | 14 | 9.1 | 8 | -1.1 |
| 29 | Rwanda | 9 | 8.9 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 12.2 | 11 | -1.2 |
| 30 | Equatorial Guinea | 7 | 9.5 | 8 | 5.2 | 6 | 12.4 | 11 | -1.4 |
| 31 | Nigeria | 10 | 15.1 | 17 | 7.6 | 9 | 18.6 | 17 | -1.6 |
| 32 | Burundi | 10 | 8.8 | 13 | 11.3 | 13 | 11.7 | 10 | -1.7 |
| 33 | Namibia | 9 | 11.2 | 10 | 8.4 | 10 | 13.8 | 12 | -1.8 |
| 34 | Malawi | 9 | 10 | 8 | 11.3 | 10 | 12.2 | 10 | -2.2 |
| 35 | Mauritius | 10 | 7 | 7 | 14.6 | 17 | 8.3 | 6 | -2.3 |
| 36 | Mali | 9 | 14.1 | 15 | 6.4 | 6 | 17.4 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 37 | South Sudan | 10 | 7.9 | 3 | 17.6 | 19 | 7.5 | 5 | -2.5 |
| 38 | Gambia | 10 | 14.1 | 27 | 10.9 | 18 | 15.6 | 13 | -2.6 |
| 39 | Botswana | 10 | 11.3 | 12 | 11.9 | 16 | 12.8 | 10 | -2.8 |
| 40 | Kenya | 10 | 13.2 | 18 | 9.8 | 14 | 15.3 | 12 | -3.3 |
| 41 | Congo | 5 | 4.9 | 4 | 9.3 | 15 | 4.3 | 1 | -3.3 |
| 42 | Guinea-Bissau | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 13.5 | 10 | -3.5 |
| 43 | Seychelles | 10 | 4.2 | 2 | 23.8 | 53 | 3.6 | 0 | -3.6 |
| 44 | Zambia | 7 | 10.4 | 7 | 9.5 | 10 | 10.2 | 6 | -4.2 |
| 45 | São Tomé and PrÃncipe | 10 | 7.8 | 5 | 18 | 26 | 7.4 | 3 | -4.4 |
| 46 | Angola | 9 | 12.7 | 9 | 7.9 | 8 | 15.5 | 11 | -4.5 |
| 47 | Zimbabwe | 10 | 10.1 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 5 | -6 |
| 48 | Chad | 9 | 6.9 | 5 | 13.9 | 22 | 7.7 | 1 | -6.7 |
| 49 | Mauritania | 10 | 11.3 | 4 | 11.1 | 13 | 13.8 | 7 | -6.8 |
| 50 | Somalia | 10 | 7.2 | 3 | 15.2 | 20 | 8.1 | 1 | -7.1 |
| 51 | Eswatini | 10 | 10.4 | 6 | 15.4 | 19 | 10.6 | 3 | -7.6 |
| 52 | Djibouti | 10 | 8.5 | 5 | 15.9 | 33 | 8.6 | 1 | -7.6 |
| 53 | Togo | 10 | 13.1 | 5 | 9.6 | 10 | 16.1 | 8 | -8.1 |