Yes, Gabon have taken 25 points over 11 CAF World Cup Qualifiers games in 2026, 8.25 more than the 16.75 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Gabon create 1.23 expected goals (xG) per game over 11 CAF World Cup Qualifiers games in 2026, 13.52 in all, and have scored 23 goals from those chances, 9.48 more than that xG would expect.
Gabon allow 0.99 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 11 CAF World Cup Qualifiers games in 2026, 10.92 in all, and have conceded 13 goals from those chances, 2.08 more than that xGA would expect.
Gabon have taken 8.3 points more than their chances warranted over 11 games: +9.5 goals against their xG, and -2.1 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/ | 11 | 13.52 | 23 | +9.48 | 10.92 | 13 | -2.08 | 16.75 | 25 | +8.25 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 11.98 | 21 | +9.02 | 9.91 | 12 | -2.09 | 15.01 | 22 | +6.99 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.84 | 11 | +5.16 | 4.57 | 7 | -2.43 | 7.92 | 10 | +2.08 |
| Home | 5 | 7.25 | 10 | +2.75 | 3.77 | 3 | +0.77 | 9.05 | 13 | +3.95 |
| Away | 6 | 6.27 | 13 | +6.73 | 7.15 | 10 | -2.85 | 7.70 | 12 | +4.30 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Nigeria (A) | 4-1 | 0.88 | 1.72 | 0.81 | 0 | L |
| 14 Oct | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Burundi (H) | 2-0 | 1.57 | 0.46 | 2.19 | 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Gambia (A) | 3-4 | 1.06 | 1.36 | 1.15 | 3 | L |
| 9 Sep | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Ivory Coast (H) | 0-0 | 0.98 | 0.97 | 1.35 | 1 | W |
| 3 Sep | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Seychelles (A) | 0-4 | 1.35 | 0.06 | 2.42 | 3 | W |
| 23 Mar | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Kenya (A) | 1-2 | 0.70 | 1.29 | 0.90 | 3 | L |
| 20 Mar | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Seychelles (H) | 3-0 | 2.46 | 0.56 | 2.52 | 3 | W |
| 11 Jun | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Gambia (H) | 3-2 | 0.70 | 0.77 | 1.25 | 3 | D |
| 7 Jun | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Ivory Coast (A) | 1-0 | 1.15 | 1.42 | 1.18 | 0 | L |
| 19 Nov | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Burundi (A) | 1-2 | 1.13 | 1.30 | 1.24 | 3 | L |
| 16 Nov | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Kenya (H) | 2-1 | 1.54 | 1.01 | 1.74 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denis Bouanga | attacker | 10 | 887 | 0.00 | 7 | +7.00 | 0.00 |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | attacker | 5 | 475 | 0.00 | 6 | +6.00 | 0.00 |
| Jim Allevinah | attacker | 6 | 425 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Mario Lemina | midfielder | 7 | 623 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Guélor Kanga | midfielder | 9 | 743 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tunisia | 10 | 16.3 | 22 | 9.3 | 0 | 17.6 | 28 | +10.4 |
| 2 | Congo DR | 11 | 13.2 | 16 | 10.7 | 6 | 16.7 | 25 | +8.3 |
| 3 | Gabon | 11 | 13.5 | 23 | 10.9 | 13 | 16.8 | 25 | +8.2 |
| 4 | Algeria | 10 | 13.4 | 24 | 8.6 | 8 | 16.9 | 25 | +8.1 |
| 5 | Ghana | 10 | 14.8 | 23 | 9.3 | 6 | 17.1 | 25 | +7.9 |
| 6 | Morocco | 8 | 14.6 | 22 | 4.7 | 2 | 17.3 | 24 | +6.7 |
| 7 | Cape Verde Islands | 10 | 13.1 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 16.6 | 23 | +6.4 |
| 8 | Senegal | 10 | 16.1 | 22 | 9.2 | 3 | 18 | 24 | +6 |
| 9 | Côte d'Ivoire | 10 | 17.7 | 25 | 5.7 | 0 | 20.2 | 26 | +5.8 |
| 10 | Madagascar | 10 | 11.2 | 17 | 11.7 | 12 | 13.4 | 19 | +5.6 |
| 11 | Egypt | 9 | 15.4 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 17.7 | 23 | +5.3 |
| 12 | Libya | 10 | 9.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | +4.5 |
| 13 | Niger | 7 | 7.4 | 8 | 11.1 | 10 | 7.6 | 12 | +4.4 |
| 14 | Burkina Faso | 10 | 15.5 | 23 | 10.5 | 8 | 16.9 | 21 | +4.1 |
| 15 | Mozambique | 9 | 8.4 | 11 | 10.2 | 16 | 10.9 | 15 | +4.1 |
| 16 | Benin | 10 | 10 | 12 | 9.4 | 11 | 13.7 | 17 | +3.3 |
| 17 | Sierra Leone | 8 | 8.5 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 10.7 | 14 | +3.3 |
| 18 | South Africa | 10 | 13.5 | 17 | 7.1 | 6 | 18.1 | 21 | +2.9 |
| 19 | Uganda | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 7.5 | 6 | 15.3 | 18 | +2.7 |
| 20 | Sudan | 10 | 10 | 8 | 13.4 | 6 | 11.2 | 13 | +1.8 |
| 21 | Liberia | 9 | 8.9 | 10 | 11.5 | 11 | 10.5 | 12 | +1.5 |
| 22 | Lesotho | 10 | 8 | 6 | 17.7 | 14 | 7.6 | 9 | +1.4 |
| 23 | Guinea | 10 | 11.7 | 11 | 10.1 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| 24 | Cameroon | 10 | 16.3 | 17 | 9.6 | 6 | 18.1 | 18 | -0.1 |
| 25 | Comoros | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 9.6 | 13 | 15.1 | 15 | -0.1 |
| 26 | Tanzania | 7 | 5.6 | 3 | 8.3 | 7 | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 |
| 27 | Central African Republic | 10 | 8.3 | 11 | 16.8 | 24 | 8.6 | 8 | -0.6 |
| 28 | Ethiopia | 9 | 8.7 | 9 | 14.3 | 14 | 9.1 | 8 | -1.1 |
| 29 | Rwanda | 9 | 8.9 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 12.2 | 11 | -1.2 |
| 30 | Equatorial Guinea | 7 | 9.5 | 8 | 5.2 | 6 | 12.4 | 11 | -1.4 |
| 31 | Nigeria | 10 | 15.1 | 17 | 7.6 | 9 | 18.6 | 17 | -1.6 |
| 32 | Burundi | 10 | 8.8 | 13 | 11.3 | 13 | 11.7 | 10 | -1.7 |
| 33 | Namibia | 9 | 11.2 | 10 | 8.4 | 10 | 13.8 | 12 | -1.8 |
| 34 | Malawi | 9 | 10 | 8 | 11.3 | 10 | 12.2 | 10 | -2.2 |
| 35 | Mauritius | 10 | 7 | 7 | 14.6 | 17 | 8.3 | 6 | -2.3 |
| 36 | Mali | 9 | 14.1 | 15 | 6.4 | 6 | 17.4 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 37 | South Sudan | 10 | 7.9 | 3 | 17.6 | 19 | 7.5 | 5 | -2.5 |
| 38 | Gambia | 10 | 14.1 | 27 | 10.9 | 18 | 15.6 | 13 | -2.6 |
| 39 | Botswana | 10 | 11.3 | 12 | 11.9 | 16 | 12.8 | 10 | -2.8 |
| 40 | Kenya | 10 | 13.2 | 18 | 9.8 | 14 | 15.3 | 12 | -3.3 |
| 41 | Congo | 5 | 4.9 | 4 | 9.3 | 15 | 4.3 | 1 | -3.3 |
| 42 | Guinea-Bissau | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 13.5 | 10 | -3.5 |
| 43 | Seychelles | 10 | 4.2 | 2 | 23.8 | 53 | 3.6 | 0 | -3.6 |
| 44 | Zambia | 7 | 10.4 | 7 | 9.5 | 10 | 10.2 | 6 | -4.2 |
| 45 | São Tomé and PrÃncipe | 10 | 7.8 | 5 | 18 | 26 | 7.4 | 3 | -4.4 |
| 46 | Angola | 9 | 12.7 | 9 | 7.9 | 8 | 15.5 | 11 | -4.5 |
| 47 | Zimbabwe | 10 | 10.1 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 5 | -6 |
| 48 | Chad | 9 | 6.9 | 5 | 13.9 | 22 | 7.7 | 1 | -6.7 |
| 49 | Mauritania | 10 | 11.3 | 4 | 11.1 | 13 | 13.8 | 7 | -6.8 |
| 50 | Somalia | 10 | 7.2 | 3 | 15.2 | 20 | 8.1 | 1 | -7.1 |
| 51 | Eswatini | 10 | 10.4 | 6 | 15.4 | 19 | 10.6 | 3 | -7.6 |
| 52 | Djibouti | 10 | 8.5 | 5 | 15.9 | 33 | 8.6 | 1 | -7.6 |
| 53 | Togo | 10 | 13.1 | 5 | 9.6 | 10 | 16.1 | 8 | -8.1 |