No, Nigeria have taken 17 points over 10 CAF World Cup Qualifiers games in 2026, 1.56 fewer than the 18.56 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Nigeria create 1.51 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 CAF World Cup Qualifiers games in 2026, 15.08 in all, and have scored 17 goals from those chances, 1.92 more than that xG would expect.
Nigeria allow 0.76 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 CAF World Cup Qualifiers games in 2026, 7.58 in all, and have conceded 9 goals from those chances, 1.42 more than that xGA would expect.
Nigeria have taken 1.6 points fewer than their chances warranted over 10 games: +1.9 goals against their xG, and -1.4 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/ | 10 | 15.08 | 17 | +1.92 | 7.58 | 9 | -1.42 | 18.56 | 17 | -1.56 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.21 | 12 | +4.79 | 3.64 | 3 | +0.64 | 9.17 | 13 | +3.83 |
| Home | 6 | 10.16 | 12 | +1.84 | 4.71 | 4 | +0.71 | 11.82 | 12 | +0.18 |
| Away | 4 | 4.92 | 5 | +0.08 | 2.87 | 5 | -2.13 | 6.74 | 5 | -1.74 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Nov | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Gabon (H) | 4-1 | 1.72 | 0.88 | 1.95 | 3 | W |
| 14 Oct | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Benin (H) | 4-0 | 0.94 | 0.91 | 1.36 | 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Lesotho (A) | 1-2 | 2.19 | 0.55 | 2.42 | 3 | W |
| 9 Sep | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | South Africa (A) | 1-1 | 0.69 | 0.66 | 1.33 | 1 | D |
| 6 Sep | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Rwanda (H) | 1-0 | 1.67 | 0.64 | 2.11 | 3 | W |
| 25 Mar | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Zimbabwe (H) | 1-1 | 2.16 | 0.83 | 2.22 | 1 | W |
| 10 Jun | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Benin (A) | 2-1 | 1.01 | 0.90 | 1.43 | 0 | W |
| 7 Jun | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | South Africa (H) | 1-1 | 1.42 | 1.01 | 1.66 | 1 | W |
| 19 Nov | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Zimbabwe (A) | 1-1 | 1.03 | 0.76 | 1.56 | 1 | W |
| 16 Nov | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Lesotho (H) | 1-1 | 2.25 | 0.44 | 2.52 | 1 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Osimhen | attacker | 5 | 408 | 0.00 | 6 | +6.00 | 0.00 |
| Akor Adams | attacker | 3 | 185 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Semi Ajayi | defender | 6 | 441 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Frank Onyeka | midfielder | 5 | 218 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Kelechi Iheanacho | attacker | 3 | 201 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Calvin Bassey | defender | 10 | 930 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru | midfielder | 3 | 166 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Raphael Onyedika | midfielder | 3 | 112 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| William Troost-Ekong | defender | 5 | 240 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Tolu Arokodare | attacker | 6 | 194 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tunisia | 10 | 16.3 | 22 | 9.3 | 0 | 17.6 | 28 | +10.4 |
| 2 | Congo DR | 11 | 13.2 | 16 | 10.7 | 6 | 16.7 | 25 | +8.3 |
| 3 | Gabon | 11 | 13.5 | 23 | 10.9 | 13 | 16.8 | 25 | +8.2 |
| 4 | Algeria | 10 | 13.4 | 24 | 8.6 | 8 | 16.9 | 25 | +8.1 |
| 5 | Ghana | 10 | 14.8 | 23 | 9.3 | 6 | 17.1 | 25 | +7.9 |
| 6 | Morocco | 8 | 14.6 | 22 | 4.7 | 2 | 17.3 | 24 | +6.7 |
| 7 | Cape Verde Islands | 10 | 13.1 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 16.6 | 23 | +6.4 |
| 8 | Senegal | 10 | 16.1 | 22 | 9.2 | 3 | 18 | 24 | +6 |
| 9 | Côte d'Ivoire | 10 | 17.7 | 25 | 5.7 | 0 | 20.2 | 26 | +5.8 |
| 10 | Madagascar | 10 | 11.2 | 17 | 11.7 | 12 | 13.4 | 19 | +5.6 |
| 11 | Egypt | 9 | 15.4 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 17.7 | 23 | +5.3 |
| 12 | Libya | 10 | 9.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | +4.5 |
| 13 | Niger | 7 | 7.4 | 8 | 11.1 | 10 | 7.6 | 12 | +4.4 |
| 14 | Burkina Faso | 10 | 15.5 | 23 | 10.5 | 8 | 16.9 | 21 | +4.1 |
| 15 | Mozambique | 9 | 8.4 | 11 | 10.2 | 16 | 10.9 | 15 | +4.1 |
| 16 | Benin | 10 | 10 | 12 | 9.4 | 11 | 13.7 | 17 | +3.3 |
| 17 | Sierra Leone | 8 | 8.5 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 10.7 | 14 | +3.3 |
| 18 | South Africa | 10 | 13.5 | 17 | 7.1 | 6 | 18.1 | 21 | +2.9 |
| 19 | Uganda | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 7.5 | 6 | 15.3 | 18 | +2.7 |
| 20 | Sudan | 10 | 10 | 8 | 13.4 | 6 | 11.2 | 13 | +1.8 |
| 21 | Liberia | 9 | 8.9 | 10 | 11.5 | 11 | 10.5 | 12 | +1.5 |
| 22 | Lesotho | 10 | 8 | 6 | 17.7 | 14 | 7.6 | 9 | +1.4 |
| 23 | Guinea | 10 | 11.7 | 11 | 10.1 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| 24 | Cameroon | 10 | 16.3 | 17 | 9.6 | 6 | 18.1 | 18 | -0.1 |
| 25 | Comoros | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 9.6 | 13 | 15.1 | 15 | -0.1 |
| 26 | Tanzania | 7 | 5.6 | 3 | 8.3 | 7 | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 |
| 27 | Central African Republic | 10 | 8.3 | 11 | 16.8 | 24 | 8.6 | 8 | -0.6 |
| 28 | Ethiopia | 9 | 8.7 | 9 | 14.3 | 14 | 9.1 | 8 | -1.1 |
| 29 | Rwanda | 9 | 8.9 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 12.2 | 11 | -1.2 |
| 30 | Equatorial Guinea | 7 | 9.5 | 8 | 5.2 | 6 | 12.4 | 11 | -1.4 |
| 31 | Nigeria | 10 | 15.1 | 17 | 7.6 | 9 | 18.6 | 17 | -1.6 |
| 32 | Burundi | 10 | 8.8 | 13 | 11.3 | 13 | 11.7 | 10 | -1.7 |
| 33 | Namibia | 9 | 11.2 | 10 | 8.4 | 10 | 13.8 | 12 | -1.8 |
| 34 | Malawi | 9 | 10 | 8 | 11.3 | 10 | 12.2 | 10 | -2.2 |
| 35 | Mauritius | 10 | 7 | 7 | 14.6 | 17 | 8.3 | 6 | -2.3 |
| 36 | Mali | 9 | 14.1 | 15 | 6.4 | 6 | 17.4 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 37 | South Sudan | 10 | 7.9 | 3 | 17.6 | 19 | 7.5 | 5 | -2.5 |
| 38 | Gambia | 10 | 14.1 | 27 | 10.9 | 18 | 15.6 | 13 | -2.6 |
| 39 | Botswana | 10 | 11.3 | 12 | 11.9 | 16 | 12.8 | 10 | -2.8 |
| 40 | Kenya | 10 | 13.2 | 18 | 9.8 | 14 | 15.3 | 12 | -3.3 |
| 41 | Congo | 5 | 4.9 | 4 | 9.3 | 15 | 4.3 | 1 | -3.3 |
| 42 | Guinea-Bissau | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 13.5 | 10 | -3.5 |
| 43 | Seychelles | 10 | 4.2 | 2 | 23.8 | 53 | 3.6 | 0 | -3.6 |
| 44 | Zambia | 7 | 10.4 | 7 | 9.5 | 10 | 10.2 | 6 | -4.2 |
| 45 | São Tomé and PrÃncipe | 10 | 7.8 | 5 | 18 | 26 | 7.4 | 3 | -4.4 |
| 46 | Angola | 9 | 12.7 | 9 | 7.9 | 8 | 15.5 | 11 | -4.5 |
| 47 | Zimbabwe | 10 | 10.1 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 5 | -6 |
| 48 | Chad | 9 | 6.9 | 5 | 13.9 | 22 | 7.7 | 1 | -6.7 |
| 49 | Mauritania | 10 | 11.3 | 4 | 11.1 | 13 | 13.8 | 7 | -6.8 |
| 50 | Somalia | 10 | 7.2 | 3 | 15.2 | 20 | 8.1 | 1 | -7.1 |
| 51 | Eswatini | 10 | 10.4 | 6 | 15.4 | 19 | 10.6 | 3 | -7.6 |
| 52 | Djibouti | 10 | 8.5 | 5 | 15.9 | 33 | 8.6 | 1 | -7.6 |
| 53 | Togo | 10 | 13.1 | 5 | 9.6 | 10 | 16.1 | 8 | -8.1 |