Yes, Madagascar have taken 19 points over 10 CAF World Cup Qualifiers games in 2026, 5.57 more than the 13.43 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Madagascar create 1.12 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 CAF World Cup Qualifiers games in 2026, 11.23 in all, and have scored 17 goals from those chances, 5.77 more than that xG would expect.
Madagascar allow 1.17 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 CAF World Cup Qualifiers games in 2026, 11.74 in all, and have conceded 12 goals from those chances, 0.26 more than that xGA would expect.
Madagascar have taken 5.6 points more than their chances warranted over 10 games: +5.8 goals against their xG, and -0.3 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/ | 10 | 11.23 | 17 | +5.77 | 11.74 | 12 | -0.26 | 13.43 | 19 | +5.57 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.31 | 8 | +3.69 | 4.36 | 9 | -4.64 | 6.70 | 9 | +2.30 |
| Home | 5 | 4.53 | 7 | +2.47 | 5.53 | 5 | +0.53 | 6.24 | 10 | +3.76 |
| Away | 5 | 6.70 | 10 | +3.30 | 6.21 | 7 | -0.79 | 7.19 | 9 | +1.81 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Mali (A) | 4-1 | 0.56 | 0.87 | 1.04 | 0 | L |
| 8 Oct | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Comoros (A) | 1-2 | 1.10 | 1.47 | 1.11 | 3 | L |
| 8 Sep | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Chad (H) | 3-1 | 1.14 | 0.56 | 1.82 | 3 | W |
| 4 Sep | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Central African Republic (H) | 2-0 | 0.56 | 0.26 | 1.57 | 3 | D |
| 24 Mar | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Ghana (H) | 0-3 | 0.95 | 1.20 | 1.16 | 0 | L |
| 19 Mar | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Central African Republic (A) | 1-4 | 1.92 | 1.04 | 1.96 | 3 | W |
| 11 Jun | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Mali (H) | 0-0 | 0.90 | 2.05 | 0.67 | 1 | L |
| 7 Jun | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Comoros (H) | 2-1 | 0.98 | 1.46 | 1.02 | 3 | L |
| 20 Nov | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Chad (A) | 0-3 | 1.64 | 0.62 | 2.11 | 3 | W |
| 17 Nov | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Ghana (A) | 1-0 | 1.48 | 2.21 | 0.97 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayan Raveloson | midfielder | 10 | 894 | 0.00 | 5 | +5.00 | 0.00 |
| Njiva Tsilavina Martin Rakotoharimalala | attacker | 5 | 216 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Warren Caddy | attacker | 6 | 401 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Arnaud Randrianantenaina | attacker | 6 | 386 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| El Hadary Raheriniaina | attacker | 6 | 359 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Loïc André Terry Lapoussin | midfielder | 6 | 441 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clément Couturier | midfielder | 9 | 679 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Johan N'zi | midfielder | 3 | 101 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tunisia | 10 | 16.3 | 22 | 9.3 | 0 | 17.6 | 28 | +10.4 |
| 2 | Congo DR | 11 | 13.2 | 16 | 10.7 | 6 | 16.7 | 25 | +8.3 |
| 3 | Gabon | 11 | 13.5 | 23 | 10.9 | 13 | 16.8 | 25 | +8.2 |
| 4 | Algeria | 10 | 13.4 | 24 | 8.6 | 8 | 16.9 | 25 | +8.1 |
| 5 | Ghana | 10 | 14.8 | 23 | 9.3 | 6 | 17.1 | 25 | +7.9 |
| 6 | Morocco | 8 | 14.6 | 22 | 4.7 | 2 | 17.3 | 24 | +6.7 |
| 7 | Cape Verde Islands | 10 | 13.1 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 16.6 | 23 | +6.4 |
| 8 | Senegal | 10 | 16.1 | 22 | 9.2 | 3 | 18 | 24 | +6 |
| 9 | Côte d'Ivoire | 10 | 17.7 | 25 | 5.7 | 0 | 20.2 | 26 | +5.8 |
| 10 | Madagascar | 10 | 11.2 | 17 | 11.7 | 12 | 13.4 | 19 | +5.6 |
| 11 | Egypt | 9 | 15.4 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 17.7 | 23 | +5.3 |
| 12 | Libya | 10 | 9.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | +4.5 |
| 13 | Niger | 7 | 7.4 | 8 | 11.1 | 10 | 7.6 | 12 | +4.4 |
| 14 | Burkina Faso | 10 | 15.5 | 23 | 10.5 | 8 | 16.9 | 21 | +4.1 |
| 15 | Mozambique | 9 | 8.4 | 11 | 10.2 | 16 | 10.9 | 15 | +4.1 |
| 16 | Benin | 10 | 10 | 12 | 9.4 | 11 | 13.7 | 17 | +3.3 |
| 17 | Sierra Leone | 8 | 8.5 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 10.7 | 14 | +3.3 |
| 18 | South Africa | 10 | 13.5 | 17 | 7.1 | 6 | 18.1 | 21 | +2.9 |
| 19 | Uganda | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 7.5 | 6 | 15.3 | 18 | +2.7 |
| 20 | Sudan | 10 | 10 | 8 | 13.4 | 6 | 11.2 | 13 | +1.8 |
| 21 | Liberia | 9 | 8.9 | 10 | 11.5 | 11 | 10.5 | 12 | +1.5 |
| 22 | Lesotho | 10 | 8 | 6 | 17.7 | 14 | 7.6 | 9 | +1.4 |
| 23 | Guinea | 10 | 11.7 | 11 | 10.1 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| 24 | Cameroon | 10 | 16.3 | 17 | 9.6 | 6 | 18.1 | 18 | -0.1 |
| 25 | Comoros | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 9.6 | 13 | 15.1 | 15 | -0.1 |
| 26 | Tanzania | 7 | 5.6 | 3 | 8.3 | 7 | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 |
| 27 | Central African Republic | 10 | 8.3 | 11 | 16.8 | 24 | 8.6 | 8 | -0.6 |
| 28 | Ethiopia | 9 | 8.7 | 9 | 14.3 | 14 | 9.1 | 8 | -1.1 |
| 29 | Rwanda | 9 | 8.9 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 12.2 | 11 | -1.2 |
| 30 | Equatorial Guinea | 7 | 9.5 | 8 | 5.2 | 6 | 12.4 | 11 | -1.4 |
| 31 | Nigeria | 10 | 15.1 | 17 | 7.6 | 9 | 18.6 | 17 | -1.6 |
| 32 | Burundi | 10 | 8.8 | 13 | 11.3 | 13 | 11.7 | 10 | -1.7 |
| 33 | Namibia | 9 | 11.2 | 10 | 8.4 | 10 | 13.8 | 12 | -1.8 |
| 34 | Malawi | 9 | 10 | 8 | 11.3 | 10 | 12.2 | 10 | -2.2 |
| 35 | Mauritius | 10 | 7 | 7 | 14.6 | 17 | 8.3 | 6 | -2.3 |
| 36 | Mali | 9 | 14.1 | 15 | 6.4 | 6 | 17.4 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 37 | South Sudan | 10 | 7.9 | 3 | 17.6 | 19 | 7.5 | 5 | -2.5 |
| 38 | Gambia | 10 | 14.1 | 27 | 10.9 | 18 | 15.6 | 13 | -2.6 |
| 39 | Botswana | 10 | 11.3 | 12 | 11.9 | 16 | 12.8 | 10 | -2.8 |
| 40 | Kenya | 10 | 13.2 | 18 | 9.8 | 14 | 15.3 | 12 | -3.3 |
| 41 | Congo | 5 | 4.9 | 4 | 9.3 | 15 | 4.3 | 1 | -3.3 |
| 42 | Guinea-Bissau | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 13.5 | 10 | -3.5 |
| 43 | Seychelles | 10 | 4.2 | 2 | 23.8 | 53 | 3.6 | 0 | -3.6 |
| 44 | Zambia | 7 | 10.4 | 7 | 9.5 | 10 | 10.2 | 6 | -4.2 |
| 45 | São Tomé and PrÃncipe | 10 | 7.8 | 5 | 18 | 26 | 7.4 | 3 | -4.4 |
| 46 | Angola | 9 | 12.7 | 9 | 7.9 | 8 | 15.5 | 11 | -4.5 |
| 47 | Zimbabwe | 10 | 10.1 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 5 | -6 |
| 48 | Chad | 9 | 6.9 | 5 | 13.9 | 22 | 7.7 | 1 | -6.7 |
| 49 | Mauritania | 10 | 11.3 | 4 | 11.1 | 13 | 13.8 | 7 | -6.8 |
| 50 | Somalia | 10 | 7.2 | 3 | 15.2 | 20 | 8.1 | 1 | -7.1 |
| 51 | Eswatini | 10 | 10.4 | 6 | 15.4 | 19 | 10.6 | 3 | -7.6 |
| 52 | Djibouti | 10 | 8.5 | 5 | 15.9 | 33 | 8.6 | 1 | -7.6 |
| 53 | Togo | 10 | 13.1 | 5 | 9.6 | 10 | 16.1 | 8 | -8.1 |