Yes, Uganda have taken 18 points over their last 9 CAF World Cup Qualifiers games, 2.74 more than the 15.26 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Uganda create 1.28 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 9 CAF World Cup Qualifiers games, 11.51 in all, and have scored 13 goals from those chances, 1.49 more than that xG would expect.
Uganda allow 0.83 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 9 CAF World Cup Qualifiers games, 7.49 in all, and have conceded 6 goals from those chances, 1.49 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Uganda have taken 2.7 points more than their chances warranted over 9 games: +1.5 goals against their xG, and +1.5 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 9 | 9 | 11.51 | 13 | +1.49 | 7.49 | 6 | +1.49 | 15.26 | 18 | +2.74 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.81 | 9 | +2.19 | 4.07 | 2 | +2.07 | 8.89 | 12 | +3.11 |
| Home | 5 | 7.28 | 9 | +1.72 | 3.63 | 2 | +1.63 | 9.50 | 12 | +2.50 |
| Away | 4 | 4.23 | 4 | -0.23 | 3.86 | 4 | -0.14 | 5.76 | 6 | +0.24 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Algeria (A) | 2-1 | 0.94 | 1.49 | 0.98 | 0 | L |
| 9 Oct | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Botswana (A) | 0-1 | 1.07 | 0.42 | 1.89 | 3 | W |
| 8 Sep | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Somalia (H) | 2-0 | 1.62 | 0.69 | 2.04 | 3 | W |
| 5 Sep | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Mozambique (H) | 4-0 | 1.52 | 0.52 | 2.11 | 3 | W |
| 25 Mar | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Guinea (H) | 1-0 | 1.66 | 0.95 | 1.87 | 3 | W |
| 10 Jun | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Algeria (H) | 1-2 | 1.08 | 0.82 | 1.55 | 0 | W |
| 7 Jun | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Botswana (H) | 1-0 | 1.40 | 0.65 | 1.93 | 3 | W |
| 21 Nov | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Somalia (A) | 0-1 | 1.57 | 0.66 | 2.03 | 3 | W |
| 17 Nov | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Guinea (A) | 2-1 | 0.65 | 1.29 | 0.86 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogers Mato | attacker | 7 | 582 | 0.00 | 3 | +3.00 | 0.00 |
| Allan Okello | midfielder | 5 | 405 | 0.00 | 3 | +3.00 | 0.00 |
| Fahad Bayo | attacker | 4 | 304 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Travis Mutyaba | midfielder | 6 | 449 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Elio Capradossi | defender | 6 | 540 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Muhammad Shaban | attacker | 3 | 117 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Steven Mukwala | attacker | 5 | 351 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Jude Ssemugabi | attacker | 4 | 255 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tunisia | 10 | 16.3 | 22 | 9.3 | 0 | 17.6 | 28 | +10.4 |
| 2 | Congo DR | 11 | 13.2 | 16 | 10.7 | 6 | 16.7 | 25 | +8.3 |
| 3 | Gabon | 11 | 13.5 | 23 | 10.9 | 13 | 16.8 | 25 | +8.2 |
| 4 | Algeria | 10 | 13.4 | 24 | 8.6 | 8 | 16.9 | 25 | +8.1 |
| 5 | Ghana | 10 | 14.8 | 23 | 9.3 | 6 | 17.1 | 25 | +7.9 |
| 6 | Morocco | 8 | 14.6 | 22 | 4.7 | 2 | 17.3 | 24 | +6.7 |
| 7 | Cape Verde Islands | 10 | 13.1 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 16.6 | 23 | +6.4 |
| 8 | Senegal | 10 | 16.1 | 22 | 9.2 | 3 | 18 | 24 | +6 |
| 9 | Côte d'Ivoire | 10 | 17.7 | 25 | 5.7 | 0 | 20.2 | 26 | +5.8 |
| 10 | Madagascar | 10 | 11.2 | 17 | 11.7 | 12 | 13.4 | 19 | +5.6 |
| 11 | Egypt | 9 | 15.4 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 17.7 | 23 | +5.3 |
| 12 | Libya | 10 | 9.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | +4.5 |
| 13 | Niger | 7 | 7.4 | 8 | 11.1 | 10 | 7.6 | 12 | +4.4 |
| 14 | Burkina Faso | 10 | 15.5 | 23 | 10.5 | 8 | 16.9 | 21 | +4.1 |
| 15 | Mozambique | 9 | 8.4 | 11 | 10.2 | 16 | 10.9 | 15 | +4.1 |
| 16 | Benin | 10 | 10 | 12 | 9.4 | 11 | 13.7 | 17 | +3.3 |
| 17 | Sierra Leone | 8 | 8.5 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 10.7 | 14 | +3.3 |
| 18 | South Africa | 10 | 13.5 | 17 | 7.1 | 6 | 18.1 | 21 | +2.9 |
| 19 | Uganda | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 7.5 | 6 | 15.3 | 18 | +2.7 |
| 20 | Sudan | 10 | 10 | 8 | 13.4 | 6 | 11.2 | 13 | +1.8 |
| 21 | Liberia | 9 | 8.9 | 10 | 11.5 | 11 | 10.5 | 12 | +1.5 |
| 22 | Lesotho | 10 | 8 | 6 | 17.7 | 14 | 7.6 | 9 | +1.4 |
| 23 | Guinea | 10 | 11.7 | 11 | 10.1 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| 24 | Cameroon | 10 | 16.3 | 17 | 9.6 | 6 | 18.1 | 18 | -0.1 |
| 25 | Comoros | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 9.6 | 13 | 15.1 | 15 | -0.1 |
| 26 | Tanzania | 7 | 5.6 | 3 | 8.3 | 7 | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 |
| 27 | Central African Republic | 10 | 8.3 | 11 | 16.8 | 24 | 8.6 | 8 | -0.6 |
| 28 | Ethiopia | 9 | 8.7 | 9 | 14.3 | 14 | 9.1 | 8 | -1.1 |
| 29 | Rwanda | 9 | 8.9 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 12.2 | 11 | -1.2 |
| 30 | Equatorial Guinea | 7 | 9.5 | 8 | 5.2 | 6 | 12.4 | 11 | -1.4 |
| 31 | Nigeria | 10 | 15.1 | 17 | 7.6 | 9 | 18.6 | 17 | -1.6 |
| 32 | Burundi | 10 | 8.8 | 13 | 11.3 | 13 | 11.7 | 10 | -1.7 |
| 33 | Namibia | 9 | 11.2 | 10 | 8.4 | 10 | 13.8 | 12 | -1.8 |
| 34 | Malawi | 9 | 10 | 8 | 11.3 | 10 | 12.2 | 10 | -2.2 |
| 35 | Mauritius | 10 | 7 | 7 | 14.6 | 17 | 8.3 | 6 | -2.3 |
| 36 | Mali | 9 | 14.1 | 15 | 6.4 | 6 | 17.4 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 37 | South Sudan | 10 | 7.9 | 3 | 17.6 | 19 | 7.5 | 5 | -2.5 |
| 38 | Gambia | 10 | 14.1 | 27 | 10.9 | 18 | 15.6 | 13 | -2.6 |
| 39 | Botswana | 10 | 11.3 | 12 | 11.9 | 16 | 12.8 | 10 | -2.8 |
| 40 | Kenya | 10 | 13.2 | 18 | 9.8 | 14 | 15.3 | 12 | -3.3 |
| 41 | Congo | 5 | 4.9 | 4 | 9.3 | 15 | 4.3 | 1 | -3.3 |
| 42 | Guinea-Bissau | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 13.5 | 10 | -3.5 |
| 43 | Seychelles | 10 | 4.2 | 2 | 23.8 | 53 | 3.6 | 0 | -3.6 |
| 44 | Zambia | 7 | 10.4 | 7 | 9.5 | 10 | 10.2 | 6 | -4.2 |
| 45 | São Tomé and PrÃncipe | 10 | 7.8 | 5 | 18 | 26 | 7.4 | 3 | -4.4 |
| 46 | Angola | 9 | 12.7 | 9 | 7.9 | 8 | 15.5 | 11 | -4.5 |
| 47 | Zimbabwe | 10 | 10.1 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 5 | -6 |
| 48 | Chad | 9 | 6.9 | 5 | 13.9 | 22 | 7.7 | 1 | -6.7 |
| 49 | Mauritania | 10 | 11.3 | 4 | 11.1 | 13 | 13.8 | 7 | -6.8 |
| 50 | Somalia | 10 | 7.2 | 3 | 15.2 | 20 | 8.1 | 1 | -7.1 |
| 51 | Eswatini | 10 | 10.4 | 6 | 15.4 | 19 | 10.6 | 3 | -7.6 |
| 52 | Djibouti | 10 | 8.5 | 5 | 15.9 | 33 | 8.6 | 1 | -7.6 |
| 53 | Togo | 10 | 13.1 | 5 | 9.6 | 10 | 16.1 | 8 | -8.1 |