Yes, Senegal have taken 24 points over 10 CAF World Cup Qualifiers games in 2026, 5.96 more than the 18.04 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Senegal create 1.61 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 CAF World Cup Qualifiers games in 2026, 16.11 in all, and have scored 22 goals from those chances, 5.89 more than that xG would expect.
Senegal allow 0.92 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 CAF World Cup Qualifiers games in 2026, 9.22 in all, and have conceded 3 goals from those chances, 6.22 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Senegal have taken 6.0 points more than their chances warranted over 10 games: +5.9 goals against their xG, and +6.2 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/ | 10 | 16.11 | 22 | +5.89 | 9.22 | 3 | +6.22 | 18.04 | 24 | +5.96 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.05 | 16 | +8.95 | 3.95 | 2 | +1.95 | 8.98 | 15 | +6.02 |
| Home | 5 | 8.28 | 13 | +4.72 | 4.20 | 1 | +3.20 | 9.23 | 13 | +3.77 |
| Away | 5 | 7.83 | 9 | +1.17 | 5.02 | 2 | +3.02 | 8.81 | 11 | +2.19 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Mauritania (H) | 4-0 | 1.90 | 1.00 | 1.97 | 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | South Sudan (A) | 0-5 | 1.57 | 0.38 | 2.26 | 3 | W |
| 9 Sep | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | DR Congo (A) | 2-3 | 1.62 | 1.07 | 1.75 | 3 | W |
| 5 Sep | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Sudan (H) | 2-0 | 1.33 | 0.81 | 1.75 | 3 | W |
| 25 Mar | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Togo (H) | 2-0 | 0.63 | 0.69 | 1.25 | 3 | D |
| 22 Mar | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Sudan (A) | 0-0 | 2.09 | 0.85 | 2.18 | 1 | W |
| 9 Jun | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Mauritania (A) | 0-1 | 1.30 | 1.25 | 1.40 | 3 | W |
| 6 Jun | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | DR Congo (H) | 1-1 | 1.46 | 1.11 | 1.62 | 1 | W |
| 21 Nov | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | Togo (A) | 0-0 | 1.25 | 1.47 | 1.22 | 1 | L |
| 18 Nov | CAF World Cup Qualifiers | South Sudan (H) | 4-0 | 2.96 | 0.59 | 2.64 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sadio Mané | attacker | 8 | 642 | 0.00 | 5 | +5.00 | 0.00 |
| Pape Matar Sarr | midfielder | 10 | 649 | 0.00 | 5 | +5.00 | 0.00 |
| Habib Diallo | attacker | 5 | 330 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Jackson | attacker | 7 | 348 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismaïla Sarr | attacker | 7 | 518 | 0.00 | 2 | +2.00 | 0.00 |
| Kalidou Koulibaly | defender | 10 | 900 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Iliman Ndiaye | attacker | 8 | 612 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Lamine Camara | midfielder | 6 | 361 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Pape Gueye | midfielder | 5 | 319 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tunisia | 10 | 16.3 | 22 | 9.3 | 0 | 17.6 | 28 | +10.4 |
| 2 | Congo DR | 11 | 13.2 | 16 | 10.7 | 6 | 16.7 | 25 | +8.3 |
| 3 | Gabon | 11 | 13.5 | 23 | 10.9 | 13 | 16.8 | 25 | +8.2 |
| 4 | Algeria | 10 | 13.4 | 24 | 8.6 | 8 | 16.9 | 25 | +8.1 |
| 5 | Ghana | 10 | 14.8 | 23 | 9.3 | 6 | 17.1 | 25 | +7.9 |
| 6 | Morocco | 8 | 14.6 | 22 | 4.7 | 2 | 17.3 | 24 | +6.7 |
| 7 | Cape Verde Islands | 10 | 13.1 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 16.6 | 23 | +6.4 |
| 8 | Senegal | 10 | 16.1 | 22 | 9.2 | 3 | 18 | 24 | +6 |
| 9 | Côte d'Ivoire | 10 | 17.7 | 25 | 5.7 | 0 | 20.2 | 26 | +5.8 |
| 10 | Madagascar | 10 | 11.2 | 17 | 11.7 | 12 | 13.4 | 19 | +5.6 |
| 11 | Egypt | 9 | 15.4 | 19 | 7 | 2 | 17.7 | 23 | +5.3 |
| 12 | Libya | 10 | 9.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | +4.5 |
| 13 | Niger | 7 | 7.4 | 8 | 11.1 | 10 | 7.6 | 12 | +4.4 |
| 14 | Burkina Faso | 10 | 15.5 | 23 | 10.5 | 8 | 16.9 | 21 | +4.1 |
| 15 | Mozambique | 9 | 8.4 | 11 | 10.2 | 16 | 10.9 | 15 | +4.1 |
| 16 | Benin | 10 | 10 | 12 | 9.4 | 11 | 13.7 | 17 | +3.3 |
| 17 | Sierra Leone | 8 | 8.5 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 10.7 | 14 | +3.3 |
| 18 | South Africa | 10 | 13.5 | 17 | 7.1 | 6 | 18.1 | 21 | +2.9 |
| 19 | Uganda | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 7.5 | 6 | 15.3 | 18 | +2.7 |
| 20 | Sudan | 10 | 10 | 8 | 13.4 | 6 | 11.2 | 13 | +1.8 |
| 21 | Liberia | 9 | 8.9 | 10 | 11.5 | 11 | 10.5 | 12 | +1.5 |
| 22 | Lesotho | 10 | 8 | 6 | 17.7 | 14 | 7.6 | 9 | +1.4 |
| 23 | Guinea | 10 | 11.7 | 11 | 10.1 | 8 | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| 24 | Cameroon | 10 | 16.3 | 17 | 9.6 | 6 | 18.1 | 18 | -0.1 |
| 25 | Comoros | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 9.6 | 13 | 15.1 | 15 | -0.1 |
| 26 | Tanzania | 7 | 5.6 | 3 | 8.3 | 7 | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 |
| 27 | Central African Republic | 10 | 8.3 | 11 | 16.8 | 24 | 8.6 | 8 | -0.6 |
| 28 | Ethiopia | 9 | 8.7 | 9 | 14.3 | 14 | 9.1 | 8 | -1.1 |
| 29 | Rwanda | 9 | 8.9 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 12.2 | 11 | -1.2 |
| 30 | Equatorial Guinea | 7 | 9.5 | 8 | 5.2 | 6 | 12.4 | 11 | -1.4 |
| 31 | Nigeria | 10 | 15.1 | 17 | 7.6 | 9 | 18.6 | 17 | -1.6 |
| 32 | Burundi | 10 | 8.8 | 13 | 11.3 | 13 | 11.7 | 10 | -1.7 |
| 33 | Namibia | 9 | 11.2 | 10 | 8.4 | 10 | 13.8 | 12 | -1.8 |
| 34 | Malawi | 9 | 10 | 8 | 11.3 | 10 | 12.2 | 10 | -2.2 |
| 35 | Mauritius | 10 | 7 | 7 | 14.6 | 17 | 8.3 | 6 | -2.3 |
| 36 | Mali | 9 | 14.1 | 15 | 6.4 | 6 | 17.4 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 37 | South Sudan | 10 | 7.9 | 3 | 17.6 | 19 | 7.5 | 5 | -2.5 |
| 38 | Gambia | 10 | 14.1 | 27 | 10.9 | 18 | 15.6 | 13 | -2.6 |
| 39 | Botswana | 10 | 11.3 | 12 | 11.9 | 16 | 12.8 | 10 | -2.8 |
| 40 | Kenya | 10 | 13.2 | 18 | 9.8 | 14 | 15.3 | 12 | -3.3 |
| 41 | Congo | 5 | 4.9 | 4 | 9.3 | 15 | 4.3 | 1 | -3.3 |
| 42 | Guinea-Bissau | 10 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 13.5 | 10 | -3.5 |
| 43 | Seychelles | 10 | 4.2 | 2 | 23.8 | 53 | 3.6 | 0 | -3.6 |
| 44 | Zambia | 7 | 10.4 | 7 | 9.5 | 10 | 10.2 | 6 | -4.2 |
| 45 | São Tomé and PrÃncipe | 10 | 7.8 | 5 | 18 | 26 | 7.4 | 3 | -4.4 |
| 46 | Angola | 9 | 12.7 | 9 | 7.9 | 8 | 15.5 | 11 | -4.5 |
| 47 | Zimbabwe | 10 | 10.1 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 11 | 5 | -6 |
| 48 | Chad | 9 | 6.9 | 5 | 13.9 | 22 | 7.7 | 1 | -6.7 |
| 49 | Mauritania | 10 | 11.3 | 4 | 11.1 | 13 | 13.8 | 7 | -6.8 |
| 50 | Somalia | 10 | 7.2 | 3 | 15.2 | 20 | 8.1 | 1 | -7.1 |
| 51 | Eswatini | 10 | 10.4 | 6 | 15.4 | 19 | 10.6 | 3 | -7.6 |
| 52 | Djibouti | 10 | 8.5 | 5 | 15.9 | 33 | 8.6 | 1 | -7.6 |
| 53 | Togo | 10 | 13.1 | 5 | 9.6 | 10 | 16.1 | 8 | -8.1 |