Ethiopia host Senegal on 29 September 2026 at 14:00 in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications. Ethiopia's last five results: W W W D L (3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss). Senegal's last five: L L W L D (1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses).
Ethiopia vs Senegal kicks off at 14:00 UK time on Tuesday 29 September 2026 in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications.
Ethiopia's last five results read W W W D L (oldest to newest): 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss.
Senegal's last five results read L L W L D (oldest to newest): 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses.
Bereket Desta leads Ethiopia with 3 goals across their last 10 games.
Ismaïla Sarr leads Senegal with 5 goals across their last 10 games.
Willy Stephane Ngah is the referee for Ethiopia vs Senegal.
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Ethiopia and Senegal are on the Lineups tab of this page, and update to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
Statz's projection model makes Senegal the favourite with a 69% chance of winning, against 11% for Ethiopia and 20% for the draw. Projected goals are Ethiopia 0.6 - 1.9 Senegal.
The most likely scoreline is 0-1, a Senegal win, at 15%. Both teams to score is 39% likely and over 2.5 goals 47%. Every scoreline's chance is on the Projections tab of this page.
Statz AI projects goals, shots, fouls, cards and more for every player and both teams in the Projections tab, and the Bets tab prices the best bet builder picks against bet365.
Statz's projection model expects Ethiopia 0.6 - 1.9 Senegal in goals. It gives Ethiopia a 11% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Senegal 69%. Both teams to score is 39% likely, over 1.5 goals 72% and over 2.5 goals 47%. The most likely scorelines are 0-1 (15%), 0-2 (15%), 0-3 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%).
| Score | Result | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Senegal win | 15% |
| 0-2 | Senegal win | 15% |
| 0-3 | Senegal win | 9% |
| 1-1 | Draw | 9% |
| 1-2 | Senegal win | 9% |
Statz's predicted starting XIs for Ethiopia vs Senegal, updated to the confirmed teams around an hour before kick-off.
| # | Ethiopia | Fouls committed | Senegal | Fouls committed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L. Camara | 12 | ||
| 2 | N. Jackson | 12 | ||
| 3 | E. Diouf | 12 | ||
| 4 | P. Gueye | 10 | ||
| 5 | S. Mané | 8 |
| # | Ethiopia | Shots | Senegal | Shots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | I. Sarr | 21 | ||
| 2 | P. Gueye | 14 | ||
| 3 | N. Jackson | 14 | ||
| 4 | S. Mané | 9 | ||
| 5 | P. Sarr | 7 |
| # | Ethiopia | Shots on target | Senegal | Shots on target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | N. Jackson | 8 | ||
| 2 | I. Sarr | 7 | ||
| 3 | P. Gueye | 5 | ||
| 4 | S. Mané | 5 | ||
| 5 | I. Ndiaye | 4 |
| # | Ethiopia | Goals | Senegal | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B. Desta | 3 | I. Sarr | 5 |
| 2 | R. James | 1 | H. Diarra | 2 |
| 3 | B. Ayten | 1 | I. Mbaye | 2 |
| 4 | P. Gueye | 2 | ||
| 5 | S. Mané | 2 |
| # | Ethiopia | Yellow cards | Senegal | Yellow cards |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | S. Hamid | 1 | L. Camara | 4 |
| 2 | F. Getahun | 1 | P. Gueye | 2 |
| 3 | R. James | 1 | E. Mendy | 1 |
| 4 | K. Jemma | 1 | I. Sarr | 1 |
| 5 | G. Panom | 1 | E. Diouf | 1 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 1 | 36 of 58 |
| Goals against | 1.4 | 39 of 58 |
| Shots | 6.5 | 38 of 58 |
| Shots on target | 2 | 49 of 58 |
| Fouls | 8.7 | 51 of 58 |
| Passes | 0 | 51 of 58 |
| Corners | 3.1 | 40 of 58 |
| Stat | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for | 2.4 | 7 of 58 |
| Goals against | 0.3 | 6 of 58 |
| Shots | 11 | 9 of 58 |
| Shots on target | 5.5 | 5 of 58 |
| Fouls | 11.2 | 39 of 58 |
| Passes | 1.5 | 23 of 58 |
| Corners | 4.8 | 23 of 58 |