No, Marseille have taken 26 points over their last 20 Ligue 1 games, within 2.59 of the 28.59 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Marseille create 1.56 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Ligue 1 games, 31.28 in all, and have scored 26 goals from those chances, 5.28 fewer than that xG would expect.
Marseille allow 1.59 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Ligue 1 games, 31.76 in all, and have conceded 31 goals from those chances, 0.76 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Amine Gouiri has the most expected goals (xG) for Marseille over their last 20 Ligue 1 games, 4.99 xG in 18 appearances, and has scored 8 goals; Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is next with 4.75 xG.
Marseille's results and their chances agree, within 2.6 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 31.28 | 26 | -5.28 | 31.76 | 31 | +0.76 | 28.59 | 26 | -2.59 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 16.60 | 14 | -2.60 | 19.79 | 13 | +6.79 | 12.81 | 13 | +0.19 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.14 | 5 | -2.14 | 11.37 | 8 | +3.37 | 5.14 | 3 | -2.14 |
| Home | 10 | 17.62 | 21 | +3.38 | 16.35 | 14 | +2.35 | 15.47 | 17 | +1.53 |
| Away | 10 | 13.66 | 5 | -8.66 | 15.41 | 17 | -1.59 | 13.12 | 9 | -4.12 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Ligue 1 | Troyes (A) | 0-2 | 1.20 | 1.07 | 1.45 | 3 | W |
| 20 Sep | Ligue 1 | PSG (H) | 1-2 | 1.55 | 4.52 | 0.30 | 0 | L |
| 11 Sep | Ligue 1 | Rennes (A) | 1-0 | 1.00 | 1.89 | 0.81 | 0 | L |
| 6 Sep | Ligue 1 | Paris (H) | 2-3 | 1.71 | 2.69 | 0.88 | 0 | L |
| 30 Aug | Ligue 1 | Monaco (A) | 2-0 | 1.68 | 1.20 | 1.70 | 0 | W |
| 21 Aug | Ligue 1 | Strasbourg (H) | 4-0 | 2.17 | 0.26 | 2.60 | 3 | W |
| 17 May | Ligue 1 | Rennes (H) | 3-1 | 2.87 | 2.53 | 1.57 | 3 | W |
| 10 May | Ligue 1 | Le Havre (A) | 0-1 | 1.11 | 1.53 | 1.08 | 3 | L |
| 2 May | Ligue 1 | Nantes (A) | 3-0 | 1.50 | 2.72 | 0.76 | 0 | L |
| 26 Apr | Ligue 1 | Nice (H) | 1-1 | 1.81 | 1.38 | 1.66 | 1 | W |
| 18 Apr | Ligue 1 | Lorient (A) | 2-0 | 2.04 | 1.24 | 1.89 | 0 | W |
| 10 Apr | Ligue 1 | Metz (H) | 3-1 | 2.39 | 0.33 | 2.63 | 3 | W |
| 5 Apr | Ligue 1 | Monaco (A) | 2-1 | 1.92 | 0.93 | 2.03 | 0 | W |
| 22 Mar | Ligue 1 | Lille (H) | 1-2 | 0.84 | 1.24 | 1.04 | 0 | L |
| 13 Mar | Ligue 1 | Auxerre (H) | 1-0 | 1.14 | 0.39 | 1.98 | 3 | W |
| 7 Mar | Ligue 1 | Toulouse (A) | 0-1 | 0.70 | 0.97 | 1.11 | 3 | L |
| 1 Mar | Ligue 1 | Lyon (H) | 3-2 | 2.05 | 1.30 | 1.85 | 3 | W |
| 20 Feb | Ligue 1 | Brest (A) | 2-0 | 1.67 | 0.83 | 1.96 | 0 | W |
| 14 Feb | Ligue 1 | Strasbourg (H) | 2-2 | 1.09 | 1.71 | 0.96 | 1 | L |
| 8 Feb | Ligue 1 | PSG (A) | 5-0 | 0.84 | 3.03 | 0.33 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amine Gouiri | attacker | 18 | 1278 | 4.99 | 8 | +3.01 | 0.35 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | midfielder | 19 | 1684 | 2.07 | 3 | +0.93 | 0.11 |
| Ethan Nwaneri | midfielder | 7 | 198 | 0.35 | 1 | +0.65 | 0.16 |
| Amine Harit | attacker | 6 | 479 | 0.54 | 1 | +0.46 | 0.10 |
| Keyliane Abdallah | attacker | 6 | 147 | 0.62 | 1 | +0.38 | 0.38 |
| Himad Abdelli | midfielder | 14 | 604 | 1.03 | 1 | -0.03 | 0.15 |
| Igor Paixão | attacker | 18 | 1247 | 2.19 | 2 | -0.19 | 0.16 |
| Hamed Junior Traoré | attacker | 8 | 359 | 1.19 | 1 | -0.19 | 0.30 |
| Angel Gomes | midfielder | 6 | 460 | 1.32 | 1 | -0.32 | 0.26 |
| Nayef Aguerd | defender | 9 | 658 | 0.63 | 0 | -0.63 | 0.09 |
| Neal Maupay | attacker | 5 | 141 | 0.66 | 0 | -0.66 | 0.42 |
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | attacker | 12 | 932 | 4.75 | 4 | -0.75 | 0.46 |
| Timothy Weah | midfielder | 17 | 1462 | 0.75 | 0 | -0.75 | 0.05 |
| Leonardo Balerdi | defender | 11 | 911 | 0.86 | 0 | -0.86 | 0.09 |
| Quinten Timber | midfielder | 14 | 1007 | 1.17 | 0 | -1.17 | 0.10 |
| Mason Greenwood | attacker | 13 | 990 | 4.56 | 3 | -1.56 | 0.41 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 7.2 | 10 | 8.8 | 5 | 7.3 | 14 | +6.7 |
| 2 | LOSC Lille | 6 | 7.2 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 6.8 | 13 | +6.2 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 11 | 12 | 11.1 | 10 | 8.4 | 13 | +4.6 |
| 4 | Strasbourg | 6 | 7.4 | 11 | 11.6 | 12 | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 |
| 5 | Nice | 6 | 5.9 | 5 | 8.2 | 7 | 6.8 | 8 | +1.2 |
| 6 | Lorient | 6 | 6.5 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7.2 | 8 | +0.8 |
| 7 | Olympique Lyonnais | 6 | 10.7 | 11 | 6.5 | 4 | 10.6 | 11 | +0.4 |
| 8 | Paris | 6 | 9.5 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 9 | Angers SCO | 6 | 9.3 | 7 | 10.9 | 10 | 7.4 | 7 | -0.4 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 6 | 7.6 | 8 | 11.8 | 16 | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 |
| 11 | Le Mans | 6 | 9.7 | 10 | 12.6 | 12 | 7.2 | 6 | -1.2 |
| 12 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 14.7 | 11 | 6.6 | 8 | 12.3 | 11 | -1.3 |
| 13 | Olympique Marseille | 6 | 9.3 | 9 | 11.6 | 8 | 7.7 | 6 | -1.7 |
| 14 | Lens | 6 | 11.9 | 11 | 10.9 | 10 | 8.9 | 7 | -1.9 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 10.9 | 9 | 10.6 | 11 | 8.9 | 6 | -2.9 |
| 16 | Troyes | 6 | 8.4 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 4 | -3 |
| 17 | Brest | 6 | 13.2 | 12 | 7.1 | 9 | 11.2 | 8 | -3.2 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 9.9 | 4 | 9.5 | 8 | 8.6 | 2 | -6.6 |