No, Newport have taken 13 points over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, within 1.11 of the 14.11 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Newport create 1.22 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 12.24 in all, and have scored 13 goals from those chances, 0.76 more than that xG would expect.
Newport allow 1.29 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 12.91 in all, and have conceded 12 goals from those chances, 0.91 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Christian Doidge has the most expected goals (xG) for Newport over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 2.16 xG in 8 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Shaquille Gwengwe is next with 1.61 xG.
Newport's results and their chances agree, within 1.1 points of xPts over 10 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 12.24 | 13 | +0.76 | 12.91 | 12 | +0.91 | 14.11 | 13 | -1.11 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.83 | 4 | -3.83 | 5.09 | 2 | +3.09 | 8.71 | 9 | +0.29 |
| Home | 5 | 8.85 | 9 | +0.15 | 5.68 | 4 | +1.68 | 9.06 | 11 | +1.94 |
| Away | 5 | 3.39 | 4 | +0.61 | 7.23 | 8 | -0.77 | 5.05 | 2 | -3.05 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League Two | Colchester (H) | 1-0 | 1.78 | 0.79 | 2.06 | 3 | W |
| 3 Oct | League Two | Gillingham (A) | 0-0 | 1.40 | 0.33 | 2.21 | 1 | W |
| 26 Sep | League Two | Grimsby (H) | 2-1 | 1.22 | 1.94 | 0.93 | 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | League Two | Accrington (A) | 0-0 | 0.82 | 0.81 | 1.33 | 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | League Two | Fleetwood (H) | 1-1 | 2.61 | 1.22 | 2.18 | 1 | W |
| 5 Sep | League Two | Northampton (A) | 1-0 | 0.31 | 0.43 | 1.10 | 0 | D |
| 1 Sep | League Two | Salford (A) | 2-1 | 0.27 | 2.39 | 0.21 | 0 | L |
| 29 Aug | League Two | Tranmere (H) | 2-2 | 1.76 | 1.51 | 1.54 | 1 | W |
| 22 Aug | League Two | Bristol Rovers (A) | 5-3 | 0.59 | 3.27 | 0.20 | 0 | L |
| 15 Aug | League Two | Rochdale (H) | 3-0 | 1.48 | 0.22 | 2.35 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaquille Gwengwe | attacker | 9 | 659 | 1.61 | 5 | +3.39 | 0.22 |
| Harrison Biggins | midfielder | 10 | 891 | 0.97 | 2 | +1.03 | 0.10 |
| Yahya Bamba | attacker | 9 | 512 | 0.88 | 1 | +0.12 | 0.15 |
| Kyle Cameron | defender | 10 | 900 | 1.13 | 1 | -0.13 | 0.11 |
| Christian Doidge | attacker | 8 | 550 | 2.16 | 2 | -0.16 | 0.35 |
| Cameron Norman | defender | 10 | 881 | 0.72 | 0 | -0.72 | 0.07 |
| Lee Jenkins | defender | 10 | 900 | 1.03 | 0 | -1.03 | 0.10 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 8 | 15.1 | 20 | 11.9 | 11 | 12.9 | 18 | +5.1 |
| 2 | Rochdale | 10 | 9.1 | 11 | 15.7 | 12 | 9.4 | 14 | +4.6 |
| 3 | Cheltenham Town | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 10.5 | 15 | +4.5 |
| 4 | Crewe Alexandra | 10 | 13.2 | 12 | 12.8 | 7 | 13.8 | 18 | +4.2 |
| 5 | Salford City | 10 | 12.9 | 15 | 11.1 | 10 | 14.9 | 19 | +4.1 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 10 | 12.3 | 15 | 14.4 | 10 | 12.8 | 16 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Swindon Town | 10 | 9.9 | 9 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +2 |
| 8 | Walsall | 9 | 15.2 | 12 | 13.6 | 6 | 13.5 | 15 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 12 | 10 | 16.8 | 11 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Tranmere Rovers | 10 | 13.2 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 12.2 | 12 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Newport County | 10 | 12.3 | 13 | 12.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 13 | -1.1 |
| 12 | York City | 9 | 17.3 | 17 | 11.7 | 11 | 16.2 | 15 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Colchester United | 9 | 12.8 | 10 | 15.2 | 13 | 11.2 | 10 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 18.4 | 15 | 12.9 | 17 | 16.4 | 15 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 10 | 11.7 | 6 | 12.2 | 6 | 13.4 | 12 | -1.4 |
| 16 | Northampton Town | 8 | 6.1 | 4 | 8.7 | 7 | 9.2 | 7 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury Town | 10 | 11.7 | 9 | 11.2 | 15 | 14.1 | 11 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 15.4 | 13 | 14.9 | 14 | 14.4 | 11 | -3.4 |
| 19 | Grimsby Town | 10 | 18.2 | 13 | 13.1 | 11 | 17.2 | 13 | -4.2 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 8 | 10.7 | 4 | 7.7 | 9 | 12.4 | 8 | -4.4 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 8 | 12.6 | 8 | 16.6 | 15 | 9.5 | 5 | -4.5 |
| 22 | Chesterfield | 10 | 22 | 17 | 12.2 | 14 | 19.6 | 15 | -4.6 |
| 23 | Rotherham United | 10 | 14.6 | 12 | 12.8 | 16 | 14.6 | 10 | -4.6 |
| 24 | Oldham Athletic | 9 | 12.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |