Yes, Modena have taken 13 points over their last 6 Serie B games, 2.09 more than the 10.91 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Modena create 1.79 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 6 Serie B games, 10.74 in all, and have scored 11 goals from those chances, 0.26 more than that xG would expect.
Modena allow 1.05 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 6 Serie B games, 6.31 in all, and have conceded 6 goals from those chances, 0.31 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Andrea Belotti has the most expected goals (xG) for Modena over their last 6 Serie B games, 0.52 xG in 3 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Giuseppe Caso is next with 0.47 xG.
Modena have taken 2.1 points more than their chances warranted over 6 games: +0.3 goals against their xG, and +0.3 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 6 | 10.74 | 11 | +0.26 | 6.31 | 6 | +0.31 | 10.91 | 13 | +2.09 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 8.78 | 9 | +0.22 | 5.07 | 5 | +0.07 | 9.07 | 10 | +0.93 |
| Home | 3 | 6.74 | 5 | -1.74 | 3.03 | 4 | -0.97 | 6.42 | 6 | -0.42 |
| Away | 3 | 4.00 | 6 | +2.00 | 3.28 | 2 | +1.28 | 4.49 | 7 | +2.51 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Serie B | Hellas Verona (H) | 3-2 | 2.09 | 1.92 | 1.49 | 3 | W |
| 20 Sep | Serie B | Empoli (H) | 2-1 | 2.22 | 0.68 | 2.35 | 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | Serie B | Südtirol (A) | 1-1 | 1.32 | 1.16 | 1.47 | 1 | W |
| 6 Sep | Serie B | Avellino (H) | 0-1 | 2.43 | 0.43 | 2.58 | 0 | W |
| 28 Aug | Serie B | Cremonese (A) | 0-3 | 0.72 | 0.88 | 1.18 | 3 | L |
| 22 Aug | Serie B | Benevento (A) | 1-2 | 1.96 | 1.24 | 1.84 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giuseppe Caso | midfielder | 6 | 480 | 0.47 | 3 | +2.53 | 0.09 |
| Giacomo Olzer | midfielder | 5 | 334 | 0.09 | 2 | +1.91 | 0.02 |
| Giuseppe Ambrosino | attacker | 6 | 530 | 0.29 | 2 | +1.71 | 0.05 |
| Andrea Belotti | attacker | 3 | 94 | 0.52 | 2 | +1.48 | 0.50 |
| Simone Santoro | midfielder | 6 | 386 | 0.20 | 1 | +0.80 | 0.05 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 6 | 12 | 14 | 8.1 | 7 | 10 | 16 | +6 |
| 2 | Mantova | 6 | 7.9 | 13 | 8.3 | 6 | 8.2 | 14 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Südtirol | 6 | 6.6 | 9 | 7.8 | 3 | 7.3 | 12 | +4.7 |
| 4 | Avellino | 6 | 6.5 | 11 | 7.8 | 7 | 7.5 | 10 | +2.5 |
| 5 | Modena | 6 | 10.7 | 11 | 6.3 | 6 | 10.9 | 13 | +2.1 |
| 6 | Ascoli | 6 | 10.4 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 8.9 | 11 | +2.1 |
| 7 | Benevento | 6 | 7.3 | 8 | 7.7 | 5 | 8.3 | 10 | +1.7 |
| 8 | Calcio Padova | 6 | 6.4 | 5 | 11.1 | 8 | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 |
| 9 | Empoli | 6 | 5.6 | 6 | 10.9 | 10 | 5.3 | 6 | +0.7 |
| 10 | Arezzo | 6 | 7.2 | 6 | 9.2 | 13 | 8 | 7 | -1 |
| 11 | Pisa | 6 | 11.3 | 11 | 6.8 | 8 | 11.1 | 10 | -1.1 |
| 12 | Cesena | 6 | 6.4 | 7 | 6.2 | 8 | 8.2 | 7 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Juve Stabia | 6 | 7.3 | 5 | 7.6 | 8 | 8.1 | 6 | -2.1 |
| 14 | Virtus Entella | 6 | 6.6 | 8 | 6.4 | 7 | 8.3 | 6 | -2.3 |
| 15 | Cremonese | 6 | 6.7 | 5 | 6.2 | 7 | 8.4 | 6 | -2.4 |
| 16 | Vicenza | 6 | 7.8 | 7 | 9.1 | 13 | 7.4 | 5 | -2.4 |
| 17 | Carrarese | 6 | 6.8 | 4 | 8.1 | 6 | 7.1 | 4 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Catanzaro | 6 | 7.5 | 6 | 10.2 | 12 | 6.9 | 3 | -3.9 |
| 19 | Sampdoria | 6 | 8.4 | 6 | 8.1 | 13 | 8.5 | 4 | -4.5 |
| 20 | Hellas Verona | 6 | 13.4 | 12 | 6.9 | 10 | 11.6 | 7 | -4.6 |