Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 11 October 2026, after the last game
Hellas Verona have the biggest shortfall in the Serie B: 7 points from chances worth 11.6 xPts, a gap of 4.6. At the other end, Palermo have taken 16 points from an xPts figure of 10.0, 6.0 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hellas Verona | 3 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | +5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 |
| 2 | Benevento | 4 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 | +3 | 1.7 | +1.3 | 7 | 6.7 | +0.3 |
| 3 | Modena | 3 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | +1 | 3.7 | -2.7 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 |
| 4 | Avellino | 4 | 9 | 5.3 | +3.7 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | +5 | 1.1 | +3.9 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 |
| 5 | Ascoli | 3 | 5 | 5.7 | -0.7 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | +3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | 7 | 5.7 | +1.3 |
| 6 | Südtirol | 4 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 | +3 | 0.4 | +2.6 | 8 | 5.5 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Palermo | 3 | 6 | 5.1 | +0.9 | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | +4 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 9 | 5.4 | +3.6 |
| 8 | Pisa | 3 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 | -3 | 1.6 | -4.6 | 3 | 5.1 | -2.1 |
| 9 | Cesena | 3 | 4 | 4.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 2.7 | +1.3 | +0 | 1.3 | -1.3 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 |
| 10 | Cremonese | 3 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | -1 | 1.2 | -2.2 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 |
| 11 | Arezzo | 3 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | 7 | 3.8 | +3.2 | -4 | 0.5 | -4.5 | 1 | 4.6 | -3.6 |
| 12 | Virtus Entella | 3 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | -1 | -0.2 | -0.8 | 2 | 3.9 | -1.9 |
| 13 | Mantova | 3 | 7 | 3.6 | +3.4 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | +4 | -0.6 | +4.6 | 7 | 3.9 | +3.1 |
| 14 | Sampdoria | 2 | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 | +0 | 1.3 | -1.3 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 |
| 15 | Carrarese | 3 | 1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | -3 | -0.8 | -2.2 | 0 | 3.4 | -3.4 |
| 16 | Vicenza | 3 | 4 | 3.8 | +0.2 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | -2 | -1.6 | -0.4 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 |
| 17 | Catanzaro | 2 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | 3 | 3.0 | +0.0 | -1 | 0.0 | -1.0 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 |
| 18 | Empoli | 3 | 3 | 3.7 | -0.7 | 5 | 6.5 | -1.5 | -2 | -2.8 | +0.8 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 |
| 19 | Calcio Padova | 3 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | 3 | 5.0 | -2.0 | -1 | -2.0 | +1.0 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 |
| 20 | Juve Stabia | 2 | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 | 4 | 2.9 | +1.1 | -3 | -0.5 | -2.5 | 1 | 2.4 | -1.4 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pisa | 3 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 | 2 | 3.1 | -1.1 | +6 | 2.9 | +3.1 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 2 | Juve Stabia | 4 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 | +0 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 |
| 3 | Sampdoria | 4 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 10 | 5.6 | +4.4 | -7 | -1.1 | -5.9 | 1 | 4.8 | -3.8 |
| 4 | Hellas Verona | 3 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | 7 | 4.0 | +3.0 | -3 | 0.8 | -3.8 | 1 | 4.7 | -3.7 |
| 5 | Palermo | 3 | 8 | 6.9 | +1.1 | 5 | 5.0 | +0.0 | +3 | 1.8 | +1.2 | 7 | 4.6 | +2.4 |
| 6 | Modena | 3 | 6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | 2 | 3.3 | -1.3 | +4 | 0.7 | +3.3 | 7 | 4.5 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Virtus Entella | 3 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | 2 | 3.2 | -1.2 | +2 | 0.4 | +1.6 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 8 | Vicenza | 3 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | 7 | 3.6 | +3.4 | -4 | 0.4 | -4.4 | 1 | 4.4 | -3.4 |
| 9 | Mantova | 3 | 6 | 4.3 | +1.7 | 3 | 4.0 | -1.0 | +3 | 0.2 | +2.8 | 7 | 4.3 | +2.7 |
| 10 | Catanzaro | 4 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | 9 | 7.2 | +1.8 | -5 | -2.7 | -2.3 | 0 | 3.9 | -3.9 |
| 11 | Carrarese | 3 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 | 2 | 4.8 | -2.8 | +1 | -0.6 | +1.6 | 4 | 3.7 | +0.3 |
| 12 | Cremonese | 3 | 2 | 2.5 | -0.5 | 3 | 3.2 | -0.2 | -1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 2 | 3.5 | -1.5 |
| 13 | Arezzo | 3 | 3 | 2.9 | +0.1 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | -3 | -2.5 | -0.5 | 6 | 3.4 | +2.6 |
| 14 | Cesena | 3 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | -1 | -1.1 | +0.1 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 |
| 15 | Ascoli | 3 | 2 | 4.7 | -2.7 | 2 | 6.7 | -4.7 | +0 | -2.0 | +2.0 | 4 | 3.2 | +0.8 |
| 16 | Calcio Padova | 3 | 3 | 3.4 | -0.4 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | -2 | -2.7 | +0.7 | 3 | 2.5 | +0.5 |
| 17 | Empoli | 3 | 3 | 1.9 | +1.1 | 5 | 4.3 | +0.7 | -2 | -2.4 | +0.4 | 3 | 2.4 | +0.6 |
| 18 | Südtirol | 2 | 5 | 2.2 | +2.8 | 2 | 3.9 | -1.9 | +3 | -1.7 | +4.7 | 4 | 1.8 | +2.2 |
| 19 | Benevento | 2 | 1 | 1.2 | -0.2 | 1 | 3.3 | -2.3 | +0 | -2.1 | +2.1 | 3 | 1.6 | +1.4 |
| 20 | Avellino | 2 | 2 | 1.2 | +0.8 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | -1 | -2.4 | +1.4 | 3 | 1.3 | +1.7 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hellas Verona | 5 | 11 | 10.0 | +1.0 | 8 | 5.1 | +2.9 | +3 | 4.8 | -1.8 | 7 | 9.4 | -2.4 |
| 2 | Pisa | 5 | 11 | 9.3 | +1.7 | 7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | +4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | 10 | 9.3 | +0.7 |
| 3 | Modena | 5 | 9 | 8.8 | +0.2 | 5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | +4 | 3.7 | +0.3 | 10 | 9.1 | +0.9 |
| 4 | Palermo | 5 | 13 | 10.7 | +2.3 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | +6 | 3.6 | +2.4 | 13 | 8.5 | +4.5 |
| 5 | Ascoli | 5 | 5 | 8.7 | -3.7 | 3 | 6.5 | -3.5 | +2 | 2.1 | -0.1 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 |
| 6 | Benevento | 5 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | 3 | 5.7 | -2.7 | +4 | 0.3 | +3.7 | 10 | 7.3 | +2.7 |
| 7 | Sampdoria | 5 | 5 | 7.3 | -2.3 | 12 | 7.1 | +4.9 | -7 | 0.2 | -7.2 | 3 | 7.1 | -4.1 |
| 8 | Cesena | 5 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 7 | 5.1 | +1.9 | -1 | 0.3 | -1.3 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 |
| 9 | Juve Stabia | 5 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | -2 | 0.0 | -2.0 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 |
| 10 | Cremonese | 5 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 | -1 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 |
| 11 | Virtus Entella | 5 | 8 | 5.7 | +2.3 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 | +2 | -0.1 | +2.1 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 |
| 12 | Avellino | 5 | 10 | 5.7 | +4.3 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | +5 | -0.5 | +5.5 | 10 | 6.7 | +3.3 |
| 13 | Mantova | 5 | 11 | 6.5 | +4.5 | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 | +6 | -0.9 | +6.9 | 11 | 6.4 | +4.6 |
| 14 | Carrarese | 5 | 3 | 6.0 | -3.0 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | -1 | -0.8 | -0.2 | 4 | 6.2 | -2.2 |
| 15 | Südtirol | 5 | 8 | 6.0 | +2.0 | 3 | 6.9 | -3.9 | +5 | -1.0 | +6.0 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 |
| 16 | Arezzo | 5 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | 12 | 8.4 | +3.6 | -8 | -2.9 | -5.1 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 |
| 17 | Catanzaro | 5 | 4 | 5.9 | -1.9 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 | -5 | -1.9 | -3.1 | 3 | 5.9 | -2.9 |
| 18 | Vicenza | 5 | 4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | 11 | 7.5 | +3.5 | -7 | -2.0 | -5.0 | 2 | 5.6 | -3.6 |
| 19 | Calcio Padova | 5 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 9.2 | -1.2 | -4 | -4.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 4.4 | -0.4 |
| 20 | Empoli | 5 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | 10 | 9.8 | +0.2 | -5 | -5.0 | +0.0 | 3 | 4.2 | -1.2 |
Mantova are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Serie B in 2026/2027, with 13 goals from chances worth 7.9 xG, a gap of 5.1. Avellino are next on 4.5.
Ascoli are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Serie B in 2026/2027, with 7 goals from chances worth 10.4 xG, a shortfall of 3.4. Carrarese are next on 2.8.
Palermo are the luckiest side in the Serie B in 2026/2027, with 16 points from performances worth 10.0 xPts, 6.0 more than their chances deserved. Mantova are next on 5.8.
Hellas Verona are the unluckiest side in the Serie B in 2026/2027, with 7 points from performances worth 11.6 xPts, 4.6 short of what they deserved. Sampdoria are next on 4.5.
Hellas Verona would be top of the Serie B in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 11.6 xPts from 13.4 xG created and 6.9 conceded across six matches. Pisa are next on 11.1.
Hellas Verona have created the most xG in the Serie B in 2026/2027, 13.4 from six matches, 2.2 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Palermo are next on 12.0.
Empoli have created the least xG in the Serie B in 2026/2027, 5.6 from six matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Cesena and Calcio Padova are next on 6.4.
Calcio Padova have conceded the most xG in the Serie B in 2026/2027, 11.1 from six matches, 1.9 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Empoli are next on 10.9.
Cremonese and Cesena have conceded the least xG in the Serie B in 2026/2027, both on 6.2 from six matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Modena are next on 6.3.
Serie B teams have averaged 1.36 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 60 matches played, and have scored 1.34 goals a game from it.
Serie B teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.48 a game against 1.23 away, a home advantage of +0.24.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hellas Verona | 6 | 12 | 13.4 | -1.4 | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 | +2 | 6.5 | -4.5 | 7 | 11.6 | -4.6 |
| 2 | Pisa | 6 | 11 | 11.3 | -0.3 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | +3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 10 | 11.1 | -1.1 |
| 3 | Modena | 6 | 11 | 10.7 | +0.3 | 6 | 6.3 | -0.3 | +5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 13 | 10.9 | +2.1 |
| 4 | Palermo | 6 | 14 | 12.0 | +2.0 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 | +7 | 3.9 | +3.1 | 16 | 10.0 | +6.0 |
| 5 | Ascoli | 6 | 7 | 10.4 | -3.4 | 4 | 10.0 | -6.0 | +3 | 0.5 | +2.5 | 11 | 8.9 | +2.1 |
| 6 | Sampdoria | 6 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 | 13 | 8.1 | +4.9 | -7 | 0.3 | -7.3 | 4 | 8.5 | -4.5 |
| 7 | Cremonese | 6 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | 7 | 6.2 | +0.8 | -2 | 0.5 | -2.5 | 6 | 8.4 | -2.4 |
| 8 | Virtus Entella | 6 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | +1 | 0.2 | +0.8 | 6 | 8.3 | -2.3 |
| 9 | Benevento | 6 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 | +3 | -0.4 | +3.4 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 |
| 10 | Cesena | 6 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | -1 | 0.2 | -1.2 | 7 | 8.2 | -1.2 |
| 11 | Mantova | 6 | 13 | 7.9 | +5.1 | 6 | 8.3 | -2.3 | +7 | -0.4 | +7.4 | 14 | 8.2 | +5.8 |
| 12 | Juve Stabia | 6 | 5 | 7.3 | -2.3 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 | -3 | -0.2 | -2.8 | 6 | 8.1 | -2.1 |
| 13 | Arezzo | 6 | 6 | 7.2 | -1.2 | 13 | 9.2 | +3.8 | -7 | -2.0 | -5.0 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 |
| 14 | Avellino | 6 | 11 | 6.5 | +4.5 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 | +4 | -1.3 | +5.3 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 |
| 15 | Vicenza | 6 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 | 13 | 9.1 | +3.9 | -6 | -1.2 | -4.8 | 5 | 7.4 | -2.4 |
| 16 | Südtirol | 6 | 9 | 6.6 | +2.4 | 3 | 7.8 | -4.8 | +6 | -1.2 | +7.2 | 12 | 7.3 | +4.7 |
| 17 | Carrarese | 6 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | 6 | 8.1 | -2.1 | -2 | -1.4 | -0.6 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Catanzaro | 6 | 6 | 7.5 | -1.5 | 12 | 10.2 | +1.8 | -6 | -2.7 | -3.3 | 3 | 6.9 | -3.9 |
| 19 | Calcio Padova | 6 | 5 | 6.4 | -1.4 | 8 | 11.1 | -3.1 | -3 | -4.8 | +1.8 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 |
| 20 | Empoli | 6 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | 10 | 10.9 | -0.9 | -4 | -5.3 | +1.3 | 6 | 5.3 | +0.7 |