No, Lorient have taken 25 points over their last 20 Ligue 1 games, within 0.68 of the 25.68 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Lorient create 1.25 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Ligue 1 games, 25.08 in all, and have scored 27 goals from those chances, 1.92 more than that xG would expect.
Lorient allow 1.41 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Ligue 1 games, 28.24 in all, and have conceded 26 goals from those chances, 2.24 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Bamba Dieng has the most expected goals (xG) for Lorient over their last 20 Ligue 1 games, 6.31 xG in 14 appearances, and has scored 7 goals; Jean-Victor Makengo is next with 3.59 xG.
Lorient's results and their chances agree, within 0.7 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 25.08 | 27 | +1.92 | 28.24 | 26 | +2.24 | 25.68 | 25 | -0.68 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 12.34 | 14 | +1.66 | 14.39 | 13 | +1.39 | 12.77 | 12 | -0.77 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.21 | 6 | +0.79 | 6.92 | 6 | +0.92 | 5.61 | 7 | +1.39 |
| Home | 10 | 13.67 | 15 | +1.33 | 14.05 | 13 | +1.05 | 13.49 | 15 | +1.51 |
| Away | 10 | 11.41 | 12 | +0.59 | 14.19 | 13 | +1.19 | 12.19 | 10 | -2.19 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Ligue 1 | Paris (H) | 1-0 | 0.73 | 0.95 | 1.14 | 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | Ligue 1 | Le Mans (A) | 2-1 | 0.82 | 1.15 | 1.09 | 0 | L |
| 12 Sep | Ligue 1 | Toulouse (H) | 2-2 | 1.03 | 1.57 | 1.00 | 1 | L |
| 5 Sep | Ligue 1 | Lens (A) | 0-1 | 1.22 | 1.18 | 1.39 | 3 | W |
| 29 Aug | Ligue 1 | Troyes (H) | 1-2 | 1.41 | 2.07 | 0.99 | 0 | L |
| 22 Aug | Ligue 1 | Nice (A) | 0-0 | 1.33 | 1.07 | 1.55 | 1 | W |
| 17 May | Ligue 1 | Le Havre (H) | 0-2 | 1.41 | 0.95 | 1.70 | 0 | W |
| 10 May | Ligue 1 | Metz (A) | 0-4 | 1.39 | 0.73 | 1.86 | 3 | W |
| 2 May | Ligue 1 | PSG (A) | 2-2 | 0.83 | 3.13 | 0.31 | 1 | L |
| 26 Apr | Ligue 1 | Strasbourg (H) | 2-3 | 2.17 | 1.59 | 1.74 | 0 | W |
| 18 Apr | Ligue 1 | Marseille (H) | 2-0 | 1.24 | 2.04 | 0.90 | 3 | L |
| 12 Apr | Ligue 1 | Lyon (A) | 2-0 | 1.30 | 1.11 | 1.50 | 0 | W |
| 5 Apr | Ligue 1 | Paris (H) | 1-1 | 1.15 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1 | L |
| 21 Mar | Ligue 1 | Toulouse (A) | 1-0 | 0.72 | 1.05 | 1.07 | 0 | L |
| 14 Mar | Ligue 1 | Lens (H) | 2-1 | 2.04 | 1.64 | 1.63 | 3 | W |
| 8 Mar | Ligue 1 | Lille (A) | 1-1 | 0.59 | 0.64 | 1.25 | 1 | D |
| 1 Mar | Ligue 1 | Auxerre (H) | 2-2 | 1.21 | 1.19 | 1.37 | 1 | W |
| 22 Feb | Ligue 1 | Nice (A) | 3-3 | 2.52 | 2.13 | 1.61 | 1 | W |
| 15 Feb | Ligue 1 | Angers (H) | 2-0 | 1.28 | 0.77 | 1.75 | 3 | W |
| 7 Feb | Ligue 1 | Brest (A) | 2-0 | 0.69 | 2.00 | 0.56 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Doriann Cadiou | midfielder | 19 | 1704 | 1.63 | 3 | +1.37 | 0.09 |
| Arthur Avom | midfielder | 19 | 1121 | 0.66 | 2 | +1.34 | 0.05 |
| Pablo Pagis | attacker | 11 | 787 | 3.06 | 4 | +0.94 | 0.35 |
| Noah Mbamba | midfielder | 3 | 142 | 0.15 | 1 | +0.85 | 0.10 |
| Isak Jensen | attacker | 5 | 152 | 0.26 | 1 | +0.74 | 0.16 |
| Bamba Dieng | attacker | 14 | 916 | 6.31 | 7 | +0.69 | 0.62 |
| Panos Katseris | midfielder | 18 | 793 | 0.36 | 1 | +0.64 | 0.04 |
| Ibrahima Baldé | attacker | 4 | 181 | 0.59 | 1 | +0.41 | 0.29 |
| Gabin Bernardeau | midfielder | 6 | 357 | 0.60 | 1 | +0.40 | 0.15 |
| Mamadou Koné | attacker | 6 | 315 | 1.12 | 1 | -0.12 | 0.32 |
| Aiyegun Tosin | attacker | 15 | 399 | 2.27 | 2 | -0.27 | 0.51 |
| Jean-Victor Makengo | midfielder | 20 | 1424 | 3.59 | 3 | -0.59 | 0.23 |
| Théo Le Bris | midfielder | 14 | 912 | 0.85 | 0 | -0.85 | 0.08 |
| Montassar Talbi | defender | 16 | 1440 | 0.89 | 0 | -0.89 | 0.06 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 7.2 | 10 | 8.8 | 5 | 7.3 | 14 | +6.7 |
| 2 | LOSC Lille | 6 | 7.2 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 6.8 | 13 | +6.2 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 11 | 12 | 11.1 | 10 | 8.4 | 13 | +4.6 |
| 4 | Strasbourg | 6 | 7.4 | 11 | 11.6 | 12 | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 |
| 5 | Nice | 6 | 5.9 | 5 | 8.2 | 7 | 6.8 | 8 | +1.2 |
| 6 | Lorient | 6 | 6.5 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7.2 | 8 | +0.8 |
| 7 | Olympique Lyonnais | 6 | 10.7 | 11 | 6.5 | 4 | 10.6 | 11 | +0.4 |
| 8 | Paris | 6 | 9.5 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 9 | Angers SCO | 6 | 9.3 | 7 | 10.9 | 10 | 7.4 | 7 | -0.4 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 6 | 7.6 | 8 | 11.8 | 16 | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 |
| 11 | Le Mans | 6 | 9.7 | 10 | 12.6 | 12 | 7.2 | 6 | -1.2 |
| 12 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 14.7 | 11 | 6.6 | 8 | 12.3 | 11 | -1.3 |
| 13 | Olympique Marseille | 6 | 9.3 | 9 | 11.6 | 8 | 7.7 | 6 | -1.7 |
| 14 | Lens | 6 | 11.9 | 11 | 10.9 | 10 | 8.9 | 7 | -1.9 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 10.9 | 9 | 10.6 | 11 | 8.9 | 6 | -2.9 |
| 16 | Troyes | 6 | 8.4 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 4 | -3 |
| 17 | Brest | 6 | 13.2 | 12 | 7.1 | 9 | 11.2 | 8 | -3.2 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 9.9 | 4 | 9.5 | 8 | 8.6 | 2 | -6.6 |