No, Grimsby have taken 13 points over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 4.23 fewer than the 17.23 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Grimsby create 1.82 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 18.24 in all, and have scored 13 goals from those chances, 5.24 fewer than that xG would expect.
Grimsby allow 1.30 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 13.04 in all, and have conceded 11 goals from those chances, 2.04 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Andy Cook has the most expected goals (xG) for Grimsby over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 3.72 xG in 9 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Iwan Morgan is next with 2.67 xG.
Grimsby have taken 4.2 points fewer than their chances warranted over 10 games: -5.2 goals against their xG, and +2.0 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 18.24 | 13 | -5.24 | 13.04 | 11 | +2.04 | 17.23 | 13 | -4.23 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 9.08 | 6 | -3.08 | 6.34 | 5 | +1.34 | 8.83 | 6 | -2.83 |
| Home | 5 | 10.50 | 8 | -2.50 | 4.58 | 4 | +0.58 | 10.38 | 10 | -0.38 |
| Away | 5 | 7.74 | 5 | -2.74 | 8.46 | 7 | +1.46 | 6.85 | 3 | -3.85 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League Two | Port Vale (A) | 1-0 | 0.67 | 3.08 | 0.26 | 0 | L |
| 3 Oct | League Two | Shrewsbury (H) | 1-2 | 1.88 | 0.66 | 2.21 | 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | League Two | Newport (A) | 2-1 | 1.94 | 1.22 | 1.85 | 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | League Two | Crawley (H) | 2-0 | 3.73 | 1.26 | 2.50 | 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | League Two | Bristol Rovers (H) | 2-0 | 0.86 | 0.12 | 2.01 | 3 | W |
| 5 Sep | League Two | Cheltenham (A) | 2-2 | 1.66 | 1.26 | 1.64 | 1 | W |
| 1 Sep | League Two | Accrington (A) | 2-2 | 2.31 | 1.83 | 1.67 | 1 | W |
| 29 Aug | League Two | Fleetwood (H) | 2-2 | 2.40 | 1.18 | 2.11 | 1 | W |
| 22 Aug | League Two | Walsall (A) | 0-0 | 1.16 | 1.07 | 1.43 | 1 | W |
| 15 Aug | League Two | Exeter City (H) | 1-0 | 1.63 | 1.36 | 1.55 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieran Green | midfielder | 10 | 880 | 1.48 | 3 | +1.52 | 0.15 |
| Mark Shelton | midfielder | 4 | 222 | 0.39 | 1 | +0.61 | 0.16 |
| Harvey Rodgers | defender | 10 | 878 | 0.54 | 1 | +0.46 | 0.06 |
| Géza Dávid Turi | midfielder | 8 | 720 | 0.64 | 1 | +0.36 | 0.08 |
| Finley Cartwright | midfielder | 6 | 265 | 0.90 | 1 | +0.10 | 0.31 |
| Cian Doyle | midfielder | 8 | 366 | 0.95 | 1 | +0.05 | 0.23 |
| Justin Amaluzor | attacker | 6 | 381 | 0.53 | 0 | -0.53 | 0.12 |
| Sonny Finch | attacker | 7 | 343 | 1.09 | 0 | -1.09 | 0.29 |
| Iwan Morgan | attacker | 10 | 386 | 2.67 | 1 | -1.67 | 0.62 |
| Andy Cook | attacker | 9 | 653 | 3.72 | 2 | -1.72 | 0.51 |
| Charles Vernam | attacker | 10 | 712 | 1.96 | 0 | -1.96 | 0.25 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 8 | 15.1 | 20 | 11.9 | 11 | 12.9 | 18 | +5.1 |
| 2 | Rochdale | 10 | 9.1 | 11 | 15.7 | 12 | 9.4 | 14 | +4.6 |
| 3 | Cheltenham Town | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 10.5 | 15 | +4.5 |
| 4 | Crewe Alexandra | 10 | 13.2 | 12 | 12.8 | 7 | 13.8 | 18 | +4.2 |
| 5 | Salford City | 10 | 12.9 | 15 | 11.1 | 10 | 14.9 | 19 | +4.1 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 10 | 12.3 | 15 | 14.4 | 10 | 12.8 | 16 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Swindon Town | 10 | 9.9 | 9 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +2 |
| 8 | Walsall | 9 | 15.2 | 12 | 13.6 | 6 | 13.5 | 15 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 12 | 10 | 16.8 | 11 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Tranmere Rovers | 10 | 13.2 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 12.2 | 12 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Newport County | 10 | 12.3 | 13 | 12.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 13 | -1.1 |
| 12 | York City | 9 | 17.3 | 17 | 11.7 | 11 | 16.2 | 15 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Colchester United | 9 | 12.8 | 10 | 15.2 | 13 | 11.2 | 10 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 18.4 | 15 | 12.9 | 17 | 16.4 | 15 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 10 | 11.7 | 6 | 12.2 | 6 | 13.4 | 12 | -1.4 |
| 16 | Northampton Town | 8 | 6.1 | 4 | 8.7 | 7 | 9.2 | 7 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury Town | 10 | 11.7 | 9 | 11.2 | 15 | 14.1 | 11 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 15.4 | 13 | 14.9 | 14 | 14.4 | 11 | -3.4 |
| 19 | Grimsby Town | 10 | 18.2 | 13 | 13.1 | 11 | 17.2 | 13 | -4.2 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 8 | 10.7 | 4 | 7.7 | 9 | 12.4 | 8 | -4.4 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 8 | 12.6 | 8 | 16.6 | 15 | 9.5 | 5 | -4.5 |
| 22 | Chesterfield | 10 | 22 | 17 | 12.2 | 14 | 19.6 | 15 | -4.6 |
| 23 | Rotherham United | 10 | 14.6 | 12 | 12.8 | 16 | 14.6 | 10 | -4.6 |
| 24 | Oldham Athletic | 9 | 12.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |