No, Colchester have taken 24 points over their last 20 League Two games, within 2.59 of the 26.59 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Colchester create 1.40 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 League Two games, 27.98 in all, and have scored 22 goals from those chances, 5.98 fewer than that xG would expect.
Colchester allow 1.50 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 League Two games, 30.02 in all, and have conceded 23 goals from those chances, 7.02 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Harry Anderson has the most expected goals (xG) for Colchester over their last 20 League Two games, 5.91 xG in 20 appearances, and has scored 5 goals; Jack Payne is next with 4.35 xG.
Colchester's results and their chances agree, within 2.6 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 27.98 | 22 | -5.98 | 30.02 | 23 | +7.02 | 26.59 | 24 | -2.59 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 14.13 | 14 | -0.13 | 16.83 | 14 | +2.83 | 12.34 | 13 | +0.66 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.98 | 5 | -1.98 | 8.80 | 8 | +0.80 | 5.85 | 3 | -2.85 |
| Home | 10 | 15.43 | 12 | -3.43 | 11.16 | 9 | +2.16 | 16.57 | 16 | -0.57 |
| Away | 10 | 12.55 | 10 | -2.55 | 18.86 | 14 | +4.86 | 10.02 | 8 | -2.02 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League Two | Newport (A) | 1-0 | 0.79 | 1.78 | 0.71 | 0 | L |
| 26 Sep | League Two | Shrewsbury (A) | 2-2 | 1.64 | 1.68 | 1.36 | 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | League Two | Cheltenham (H) | 1-1 | 0.72 | 1.95 | 0.59 | 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | League Two | Crewe (H) | 1-1 | 1.55 | 0.67 | 2.01 | 1 | W |
| 5 Sep | League Two | Swindon (A) | 3-1 | 2.28 | 2.72 | 1.18 | 0 | L |
| 1 Sep | League Two | Bristol Rovers (A) | 2-0 | 1.12 | 2.64 | 0.58 | 0 | L |
| 29 Aug | League Two | Rochdale (H) | 1-0 | 1.38 | 1.11 | 1.56 | 3 | W |
| 22 Aug | League Two | Oldham (H) | 2-1 | 2.48 | 0.42 | 2.60 | 3 | W |
| 15 Aug | League Two | Accrington (A) | 2-2 | 0.87 | 2.23 | 0.59 | 1 | L |
| 2 May | League Two | Cheltenham (A) | 1-4 | 1.30 | 1.63 | 1.16 | 3 | L |
| 25 Apr | League Two | Notts County (H) | 0-1 | 0.49 | 2.41 | 0.31 | 0 | L |
| 18 Apr | League Two | Harrogate Town (A) | 1-0 | 0.97 | 1.16 | 1.21 | 0 | L |
| 14 Apr | League Two | Accrington (H) | 2-1 | 2.34 | 0.97 | 2.22 | 3 | W |
| 10 Apr | League Two | Swindon (H) | 3-0 | 2.38 | 0.17 | 2.72 | 3 | W |
| 6 Apr | League Two | Tranmere (A) | 0-1 | 1.57 | 1.18 | 1.64 | 3 | W |
| 3 Apr | League Two | Oldham (H) | 1-3 | 1.27 | 1.40 | 1.28 | 0 | L |
| 28 Mar | League Two | Walsall (H) | 1-1 | 1.48 | 1.12 | 1.62 | 1 | W |
| 21 Mar | League Two | Bromley (A) | 1-0 | 1.37 | 2.48 | 0.78 | 0 | L |
| 18 Mar | League Two | MK Dons (A) | 1-0 | 0.64 | 1.36 | 0.81 | 0 | L |
| 13 Mar | League Two | Crawley (H) | 0-0 | 1.34 | 0.94 | 1.66 | 1 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moses Sesay | midfielder | 8 | 589 | 1.97 | 3 | +1.03 | 0.30 |
| Arthur Read | midfielder | 11 | 949 | 1.14 | 2 | +0.86 | 0.11 |
| Will Goodwin | attacker | 9 | 507 | 1.32 | 2 | +0.68 | 0.23 |
| Rob Hunt | defender | 19 | 1410 | 0.36 | 1 | +0.64 | 0.02 |
| Finley Barbrook | midfielder | 9 | 470 | 0.60 | 1 | +0.40 | 0.12 |
| Ellis Iandolo | defender | 15 | 1277 | 0.65 | 1 | +0.35 | 0.05 |
| Kylian Kouassi | attacker | 5 | 351 | 0.83 | 1 | +0.17 | 0.21 |
| Samson Tovide | attacker | 9 | 385 | 0.85 | 1 | +0.15 | 0.20 |
| Jaden Williams | attacker | 16 | 437 | 1.31 | 1 | -0.31 | 0.27 |
| Oscar Thorn | attacker | 9 | 600 | 0.62 | 0 | -0.62 | 0.09 |
| Owura Edwards | attacker | 10 | 396 | 0.67 | 0 | -0.67 | 0.15 |
| Harry Anderson | attacker | 20 | 1639 | 5.91 | 5 | -0.91 | 0.32 |
| Jack Tucker | defender | 20 | 1800 | 0.94 | 0 | -0.94 | 0.05 |
| B. Ihionvien | attacker | 8 | 360 | 1.00 | 0 | -1.00 | 0.25 |
| Kyreece Lisbie | attacker | 10 | 616 | 2.14 | 1 | -1.14 | 0.31 |
| Romeo Akachukwu | midfielder | 9 | 152 | 1.29 | 0 | -1.29 | 0.76 |
| Jack Payne | midfielder | 20 | 1668 | 4.35 | 2 | -2.35 | 0.23 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 8 | 15.1 | 20 | 11.9 | 11 | 12.9 | 18 | +5.1 |
| 2 | Rochdale | 10 | 9.1 | 11 | 15.7 | 12 | 9.4 | 14 | +4.6 |
| 3 | Cheltenham Town | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 10.5 | 15 | +4.5 |
| 4 | Crewe Alexandra | 10 | 13.2 | 12 | 12.8 | 7 | 13.8 | 18 | +4.2 |
| 5 | Salford City | 10 | 12.9 | 15 | 11.1 | 10 | 14.9 | 19 | +4.1 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 10 | 12.3 | 15 | 14.4 | 10 | 12.8 | 16 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Swindon Town | 10 | 9.9 | 9 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +2 |
| 8 | Walsall | 9 | 15.2 | 12 | 13.6 | 6 | 13.5 | 15 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 12 | 10 | 16.8 | 11 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Tranmere Rovers | 10 | 13.2 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 12.2 | 12 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Newport County | 10 | 12.3 | 13 | 12.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 13 | -1.1 |
| 12 | York City | 9 | 17.3 | 17 | 11.7 | 11 | 16.2 | 15 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Colchester United | 9 | 12.8 | 10 | 15.2 | 13 | 11.2 | 10 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 18.4 | 15 | 12.9 | 17 | 16.4 | 15 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 10 | 11.7 | 6 | 12.2 | 6 | 13.4 | 12 | -1.4 |
| 16 | Northampton Town | 8 | 6.1 | 4 | 8.7 | 7 | 9.2 | 7 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury Town | 10 | 11.7 | 9 | 11.2 | 15 | 14.1 | 11 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 15.4 | 13 | 14.9 | 14 | 14.4 | 11 | -3.4 |
| 19 | Grimsby Town | 10 | 18.2 | 13 | 13.1 | 11 | 17.2 | 13 | -4.2 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 8 | 10.7 | 4 | 7.7 | 9 | 12.4 | 8 | -4.4 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 8 | 12.6 | 8 | 16.6 | 15 | 9.5 | 5 | -4.5 |
| 22 | Chesterfield | 10 | 22 | 17 | 12.2 | 14 | 19.6 | 15 | -4.6 |
| 23 | Rotherham United | 10 | 14.6 | 12 | 12.8 | 16 | 14.6 | 10 | -4.6 |
| 24 | Oldham Athletic | 9 | 12.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |