No, Accrington have taken 11 points over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 3.43 fewer than the 14.43 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Accrington create 1.54 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 15.43 in all, and have scored 13 goals from those chances, 2.43 fewer than that xG would expect.
Accrington allow 1.49 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 14.88 in all, and have conceded 14 goals from those chances, 0.88 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Charlie Caton has the most expected goals (xG) for Accrington over 10 League Two games in 2026/2027, 3.48 xG in 7 appearances, and has scored 5 goals; Josh Woods is next with 3.38 xG.
Accrington have taken 3.4 points fewer than their chances warranted over 10 games: -2.4 goals against their xG, and +0.9 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 15.43 | 13 | -2.43 | 14.88 | 14 | +0.88 | 14.43 | 11 | -3.43 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.30 | 4 | -2.30 | 5.27 | 3 | +2.27 | 7.61 | 6 | -1.61 |
| Home | 5 | 9.24 | 9 | -0.24 | 5.89 | 6 | -0.11 | 8.96 | 9 | +0.04 |
| Away | 5 | 6.19 | 4 | -2.19 | 8.99 | 8 | +0.99 | 5.47 | 2 | -3.47 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League Two | Oldham (A) | 0-0 | 0.80 | 0.27 | 1.80 | 1 | W |
| 3 Oct | League Two | Cheltenham (H) | 2-0 | 2.40 | 0.48 | 2.54 | 3 | W |
| 26 Sep | League Two | Swindon (A) | 1-1 | 1.57 | 1.43 | 1.47 | 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | League Two | Newport (H) | 0-0 | 0.81 | 0.82 | 1.32 | 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | League Two | Barnet (A) | 2-1 | 0.72 | 2.27 | 0.48 | 0 | L |
| 5 Sep | League Two | Crawley (H) | 3-2 | 1.97 | 1.41 | 1.74 | 3 | W |
| 1 Sep | League Two | Grimsby (H) | 2-2 | 1.83 | 2.31 | 1.13 | 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | League Two | Walsall (A) | 3-2 | 2.37 | 2.63 | 1.27 | 0 | L |
| 22 Aug | League Two | Exeter City (A) | 2-0 | 0.73 | 2.39 | 0.45 | 0 | L |
| 15 Aug | League Two | Colchester (H) | 2-2 | 2.23 | 0.87 | 2.23 | 1 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Caton | attacker | 7 | 497 | 3.48 | 5 | +1.52 | 0.63 |
| Charlie Warren | attacker | 5 | 198 | 1.59 | 2 | +0.41 | 0.72 |
| Tyler Walton | midfielder | 8 | 569 | 0.88 | 1 | +0.12 | 0.14 |
| Stefan Mols | midfielder | 7 | 431 | 1.05 | 1 | -0.05 | 0.22 |
| Devon Matthews | defender | 9 | 794 | 1.09 | 1 | -0.09 | 0.12 |
| Josh Woods | attacker | 9 | 786 | 3.38 | 3 | -0.38 | 0.39 |
| Shaun Whalley | attacker | 6 | 360 | 0.63 | 0 | -0.63 | 0.16 |
| Alex Henderson | midfielder | 9 | 345 | 0.98 | 0 | -0.98 | 0.26 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 8 | 15.1 | 20 | 11.9 | 11 | 12.9 | 18 | +5.1 |
| 2 | Rochdale | 10 | 9.1 | 11 | 15.7 | 12 | 9.4 | 14 | +4.6 |
| 3 | Cheltenham Town | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 10.5 | 15 | +4.5 |
| 4 | Crewe Alexandra | 10 | 13.2 | 12 | 12.8 | 7 | 13.8 | 18 | +4.2 |
| 5 | Salford City | 10 | 12.9 | 15 | 11.1 | 10 | 14.9 | 19 | +4.1 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 10 | 12.3 | 15 | 14.4 | 10 | 12.8 | 16 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Swindon Town | 10 | 9.9 | 9 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +2 |
| 8 | Walsall | 9 | 15.2 | 12 | 13.6 | 6 | 13.5 | 15 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 12 | 10 | 16.8 | 11 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Tranmere Rovers | 10 | 13.2 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 12.2 | 12 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Newport County | 10 | 12.3 | 13 | 12.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 13 | -1.1 |
| 12 | York City | 9 | 17.3 | 17 | 11.7 | 11 | 16.2 | 15 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Colchester United | 9 | 12.8 | 10 | 15.2 | 13 | 11.2 | 10 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 18.4 | 15 | 12.9 | 17 | 16.4 | 15 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 10 | 11.7 | 6 | 12.2 | 6 | 13.4 | 12 | -1.4 |
| 16 | Northampton Town | 8 | 6.1 | 4 | 8.7 | 7 | 9.2 | 7 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury Town | 10 | 11.7 | 9 | 11.2 | 15 | 14.1 | 11 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 15.4 | 13 | 14.9 | 14 | 14.4 | 11 | -3.4 |
| 19 | Grimsby Town | 10 | 18.2 | 13 | 13.1 | 11 | 17.2 | 13 | -4.2 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 8 | 10.7 | 4 | 7.7 | 9 | 12.4 | 8 | -4.4 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 8 | 12.6 | 8 | 16.6 | 15 | 9.5 | 5 | -4.5 |
| 22 | Chesterfield | 10 | 22 | 17 | 12.2 | 14 | 19.6 | 15 | -4.6 |
| 23 | Rotherham United | 10 | 14.6 | 12 | 12.8 | 16 | 14.6 | 10 | -4.6 |
| 24 | Oldham Athletic | 9 | 12.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |