No, AC Milan have taken 29 points over their last 20 Serie A games, within 0.42 of the 29.42 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
AC Milan create 1.44 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Serie A games, 28.86 in all, and have scored 24 goals from those chances, 4.86 fewer than that xG would expect.
AC Milan allow 1.26 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Serie A games, 25.17 in all, and have conceded 22 goals from those chances, 3.17 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Rafael Leão has the most expected goals (xG) for AC Milan over their last 20 Serie A games, 3.72 xG in 12 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Christian Pulisic is next with 3.25 xG.
AC Milan's results and their chances agree, within 0.4 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 28.86 | 24 | -4.86 | 25.17 | 22 | +3.17 | 29.42 | 29 | -0.42 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 15.00 | 16 | +1.00 | 14.21 | 13 | +1.21 | 14.26 | 15 | +0.74 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.51 | 9 | +2.49 | 5.56 | 4 | +1.56 | 7.36 | 9 | +1.64 |
| Home | 10 | 15.74 | 13 | -2.74 | 12.63 | 12 | +0.63 | 15.77 | 14 | -1.77 |
| Away | 10 | 13.12 | 11 | -2.12 | 12.54 | 10 | +2.54 | 13.65 | 15 | +1.35 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | Serie A | Sassuolo (A) | 1-1 | 1.27 | 1.14 | 1.46 | 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | Serie A | Lecce (H) | 3-0 | 1.29 | 0.31 | 2.15 | 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | Serie A | Lazio (A) | 2-2 | 1.40 | 1.71 | 1.18 | 1 | L |
| 6 Sep | Serie A | Juventus (A) | 1-1 | 0.11 | 1.37 | 0.35 | 1 | L |
| 28 Aug | Serie A | Venezia (H) | 2-0 | 2.44 | 1.03 | 2.22 | 3 | W |
| 23 Aug | Serie A | Torino (A) | 1-2 | 2.54 | 1.13 | 2.21 | 3 | W |
| 24 May | Serie A | Cagliari (H) | 1-2 | 1.77 | 2.53 | 0.99 | 0 | L |
| 17 May | Serie A | Genoa (A) | 1-2 | 1.79 | 1.55 | 1.53 | 3 | W |
| 10 May | Serie A | Atalanta (H) | 2-3 | 2.02 | 1.24 | 1.87 | 0 | W |
| 3 May | Serie A | Sassuolo (A) | 2-0 | 0.37 | 2.20 | 0.30 | 0 | L |
| 26 Apr | Serie A | Juventus (H) | 0-0 | 0.58 | 0.51 | 1.34 | 1 | D |
| 19 Apr | Serie A | Hellas Verona (A) | 0-1 | 0.57 | 0.80 | 1.09 | 3 | D |
| 11 Apr | Serie A | Udinese (H) | 0-3 | 2.38 | 1.50 | 1.90 | 0 | W |
| 6 Apr | Serie A | Napoli (A) | 1-0 | 0.58 | 1.05 | 0.94 | 0 | L |
| 21 Mar | Serie A | Torino (H) | 3-2 | 1.73 | 2.45 | 1.01 | 3 | L |
| 15 Mar | Serie A | Lazio (A) | 1-0 | 1.99 | 0.50 | 2.38 | 0 | W |
| 8 Mar | Serie A | Inter (H) | 1-0 | 0.92 | 1.18 | 1.16 | 3 | L |
| 1 Mar | Serie A | Cremonese (A) | 0-2 | 2.50 | 1.09 | 2.21 | 3 | W |
| 22 Feb | Serie A | Parma (H) | 0-1 | 1.93 | 0.84 | 2.10 | 0 | W |
| 18 Feb | Serie A | Como (H) | 1-1 | 0.68 | 1.04 | 1.03 | 1 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Moreira | midfielder | 4 | 216 | 0.74 | 3 | +2.26 | 0.31 |
| Adrien Rabiot | midfielder | 18 | 1476 | 3.15 | 5 | +1.85 | 0.19 |
| Alphadjo Cissè | midfielder | 5 | 243 | 0.40 | 2 | +1.60 | 0.15 |
| Strahinja Pavlović | defender | 20 | 1694 | 2.08 | 3 | +0.92 | 0.11 |
| Pervis Estupiñán | defender | 13 | 681 | 0.44 | 1 | +0.56 | 0.06 |
| Zachary Athekame | defender | 12 | 482 | 0.47 | 1 | +0.53 | 0.09 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers | midfielder | 17 | 1143 | 1.13 | 1 | -0.13 | 0.09 |
| Youssouf Fofana | midfielder | 13 | 777 | 1.40 | 1 | -0.40 | 0.16 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek | midfielder | 11 | 325 | 0.54 | 0 | -0.54 | 0.15 |
| Samuel Chukwueze | attacker | 6 | 471 | 0.62 | 0 | -0.62 | 0.12 |
| Christopher Nkunku | attacker | 14 | 467 | 2.65 | 2 | -0.65 | 0.51 |
| Santiago Gimenez | attacker | 7 | 270 | 0.76 | 0 | -0.76 | 0.25 |
| Niclas Füllkrug | attacker | 12 | 412 | 0.98 | 0 | -0.98 | 0.21 |
| Koni De Winter | defender | 16 | 1312 | 1.04 | 0 | -1.04 | 0.07 |
| Gonçalo Ramos | attacker | 6 | 535 | 2.67 | 1 | -1.67 | 0.45 |
| Rafael Leão | attacker | 12 | 779 | 3.72 | 2 | -1.72 | 0.43 |
| Christian Pulisic | attacker | 16 | 909 | 3.25 | 1 | -2.25 | 0.32 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cagliari | 6 | 5.3 | 6 | 10.7 | 3 | 5.4 | 13 | +7.6 |
| 2 | Lazio | 6 | 9 | 11 | 8.4 | 4 | 8.9 | 16 | +7.1 |
| 3 | Frosinone | 6 | 9 | 9 | 13.5 | 7 | 5.9 | 10 | +4.1 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 6 | 6.7 | 8 | 11.2 | 8 | 5.7 | 9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | Inter | 6 | 16.8 | 18 | 6.7 | 8 | 13.4 | 16 | +2.6 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 6 | 9.1 | 11 | 6.7 | 5 | 9.6 | 12 | +2.4 |
| 7 | Roma | 6 | 13.5 | 14 | 6.7 | 3 | 11.8 | 14 | +2.2 |
| 8 | Como | 6 | 10.9 | 9 | 9.2 | 6 | 9.5 | 11 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Lecce | 6 | 6.3 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 4.8 | 6 | +1.2 |
| 10 | Torino | 6 | 6.4 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 6.1 | 7 | +0.9 |
| 11 | Napoli | 6 | 10.6 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 9.8 | 10 | +0.2 |
| 12 | Parma | 6 | 4.6 | 4 | 10.2 | 10 | 4.8 | 4 | -0.8 |
| 13 | Sassuolo | 6 | 10.2 | 10 | 8.6 | 10 | 9.2 | 8 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Juventus | 6 | 9.7 | 9 | 3.6 | 5 | 12.6 | 11 | -1.6 |
| 15 | Udinese | 6 | 7.3 | 9 | 10.3 | 13 | 6.6 | 4 | -2.6 |
| 16 | Genoa | 6 | 5.8 | 5 | 7.5 | 11 | 6.8 | 4 | -2.8 |
| 17 | Bologna | 6 | 8.5 | 5 | 5.7 | 7 | 9.8 | 5 | -4.8 |
| 18 | Monza | 6 | 9.9 | 9 | 8.1 | 15 | 9.3 | 4 | -5.3 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 6 | 9.8 | 7 | 8.7 | 14 | 9.3 | 4 | -5.3 |
| 20 | Venezia | 6 | 10.2 | 5 | 12.7 | 16 | 7.1 | 0 | -7.1 |