NFL Passing Touchdowns Props: How to Bet QB TD Lines

Published October 17, 2026 by Statz NFL.

NFL passing touchdowns props explained: how QB touchdown lines at 0.5, 1.5 and 2.5 settle, what drives them, how to read the price, and how to research them.

NFL passing touchdowns props ask one question: how many touchdown passes will a quarterback throw? The lines are short, usually 0.5, 1.5 or 2.5, and the real bet is often in the price rather than the number. This guide explains how passing touchdowns props settle, what drives a quarterback's touchdown count, how to read the price, the bet types on offer, and how to research every line with the Statz NFL projections and Props Tool.

What are NFL passing touchdowns props?

A passing touchdowns prop is a bet on how many touchdown passes a quarterback throws in one game. The line is almost always a half number: over 1.5 means two or more, under 1.5 means one or none. Lines of 0.5 and 2.5 appear for quarterbacks the market rates well below or well above average.

Because the line rarely moves off those few numbers, books adjust the price instead. One quarterback's over 1.5 might be -150, another's +130. Two players with the same line can carry very different chances, so with passing touchdowns the price is the part of the bet that needs most attention.

Passing touchdowns also tie several markets together. A quarterback's touchdown passes are his receivers' touchdowns, so a view on one feeds the anytime touchdown market for the other, and both follow the game total and the spread. Below are the season's passing leaders, with passing yards, passing touchdowns and quarterback rushing yards, each linked to his game log.

The 2026 passing leaders

How passing touchdowns props are settled

Passing touchdowns props settle on the official league statistics. Books differ on the detail, so read your book's rules page. As a general pattern:

• Only touchdown passes count. If the quarterback runs one in himself, or catches one on a trick play, it does not count towards his passing touchdowns.
• A forward pass caught behind the line and carried in is a touchdown pass. A backward pitch that goes for a score is a rushing touchdown.
• Two-point conversion passes do not count.
• Overtime counts at most books.
• If the quarterback does not play, the bet is usually void. Once he has taken a snap it normally stands, even if he leaves early.

What influences passing touchdowns

Touchdown passes are rarer and lumpier than yards, so a handful of inputs carry most of the weight:

• His team's expected points: a quarterback on a team projected for 28 points has far more chances to throw a touchdown than one projected for 17. The spread and the total together give a team's implied total.
• Red-zone habits: some offences throw near the goal line and others hand off. A team with a powerful short-yardage back can turn a quarterback's drives into rushing touchdowns.
• His own legs: running quarterbacks score some of their team's touchdowns on the ground, which can take a passing touchdown away. See our QB rushing props guide.
• The opposing defence: Best Matchups shows what each defence has allowed by position.
• Receivers: a big target near the goal line makes a difference, and losing one shows on the injury report.
• Weather: wind and heavy rain lower totals, and touchdown passes with them.
• Game script: a quarterback chasing the game throws more, including in the red zone.

Passing touchdowns stats that matter and how to read the price

Start with how often he has thrown two or more. A quarterback averaging 1.8 touchdown passes may throw two or more in only a little over half his games, because a few three and four-touchdown days lift the average. As with yards, check the hit rate at the line, not the average.

Then read the price, because that is where the bet lives. Over 1.5 at -150 (1.67) needs to win 60% of the time to break even. At -110 (1.91) it needs 52.4%, and at +150 (2.50) it needs 40%. Compare your view of the chance with the price, not just the line. Our guide to reading NFL odds covers the conversion.

Touchdown counts are small numbers, and small numbers swing. A quarterback can play well and throw none if his team scores on the ground three times. Judge a line over many games, and treat a run of multi-touchdown games with caution: it is often a few red-zone bounces, not a new level.

Last, compare the price with a projection that knows the opponent and the injury news. If bet365 has a quarterback at -150 to throw two or more, the price says 60%. If the projection puts his chance nearer 50%, it leans under; nearer 70%, it leans over. Where the two sit close together, the market has it priced and there is little to bet.

How to bet passing touchdowns props with Statz NFL

Statz NFL projects every quarterback in every game, passing touchdowns included. The projections run daily and update with injuries, depth charts and line moves, and a game's projections are frozen at kickoff. Every bet365 passing touchdowns prop is measured against them, and the Props Tool shows our chance on each side beside the price.

Each quarterback has a passing touchdowns page with his projection, the current line and his last ten games against it. Hit Rates shows how often he has cleared his line over five games, ten games and the season, Streaks tracks the players on active runs over a line, Prop Picks ranks the week's props in one table, and the passing touchdowns leaders board ranks the season's top passers. The game projections give each team's projected points, the best single guide to touchdown chances.

Passing touchdowns bet types explained

Statz NFL prices the main passing touchdowns line. These are the other markets you will meet:

• Over/under 0.5, 1.5 or 2.5: the main line, usually with uneven prices on the two sides.
• Alternate lines and milestones: three or four touchdown passes at longer odds. These are not priced on Statz NFL; see alternate lines.
• Interceptions thrown: the other half of a quarterback's scoring line. Not priced on Statz NFL; our guide to interception props covers it.
• Longest touchdown pass: the length of his longest scoring throw.
• First-half passing touchdowns: a line on the first two quarters only.
• A touchdown for one of his receivers: in practice the receiver's anytime touchdown market, which the Props Tool prices. See anytime touchdown predictions.
• Season-long markets: the passing touchdowns leader and season totals.

Passing touchdowns tips and tactics

A few habits help most with touchdown lines:

• Start with the implied team total. Work it out from the spread and the total, or read the projected points on the game projections.
• Know who finishes drives. If a team's short-yardage back or its quarterback scores most goal-line touchdowns, the passing over needs more.
• Price beats line. Shop for the best price at 1.5 as hard as you would shop a yardage line.
• Check the weather and the venue. A dome with a high total is a different bet from a windy afternoon outdoors.
• Watch the quarterback's own health. A passer carrying a knock, or one likely to sit late in a blowout, has a smaller window to reach two.
• Be wary of stacking. A quarterback's touchdowns and his receivers' touchdowns come from the same drives; see same-game parlays and correlation.

Common passing touchdowns mistakes

The errors that cost touchdown bettors most:

• Reading the line and ignoring the price. Over 1.5 at -150 and over 1.5 at +130 are very different bets.
• Chasing a streak of three-touchdown games, which is often red-zone luck.
• Forgetting the running quarterback: his own touchdown runs do not count.
• Ignoring the goal-line back who takes short scores away from the passing game.
• Backing the over in a low-total game because of a quarterback's name.

Passing touchdowns props by player

Every quarterback has a passing touchdowns page with his game log, his hit rate and his projection. Start with Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford.

Then Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix. Find any other passer on the players page, or compare two with Player Compare.

Passing touchdowns props by team

Every team has a passing touchdowns page with its season total, its game-by-game figures and its leading passer. AFC: Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots, Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Jaguars, Texans, Titans, Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs and Raiders.

NFC: Commanders, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Bears, Lions, Packers, Vikings, Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers, Saints, 49ers, Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks.

Final word: price the touchdowns, not the name

Passing touchdowns props look simple because the line barely moves, but that is exactly why the price matters. Start with the team's expected points, ask who finishes its drives, check the weather and the receivers, then compare your chance with the price and with the projection. Where they clearly disagree, you have a lean, not a certainty. The same model's NFL Best Bets are graded in public on the Best Bets tracker, win or lose.

Put it to work

• Passing touchdowns props Our chance beside every bet365 passing touchdowns price
• NFL Game Projections Each team's projected points, every game
• Passing touchdowns leaders Season touchdown passes, in total and per game

More NFL betting guides

• NFL Passing Yards Props: How to Bet QB Yardage Lines
• QB Rushing Props: How to Bet Quarterback Rushing Yards
• NFL Interception Props: QB Interceptions and Defensive Picks
• AI Anytime Touchdown Predictions: NFL TD Scorer Picks
• NFL Player Props, Explained
• First Touchdown Scorer Betting: NFL First TD Odds Explained
• NFL Kicker Props: Field Goals and Kicking Points Explained
• NFL Receiving Yards Props: How to Read and Bet the Lines