First Touchdown Scorer Betting: NFL First TD Odds Explained

Published October 17, 2026 by Statz NFL.

First touchdown scorer betting explained: how NFL first TD bets settle, why the odds are so long, what drives them and how to research them with Statz NFL stats.

First touchdown scorer betting asks you to name the player who scores the first touchdown of an NFL game. The prices are long and the margin is heavy, so it pays to understand the market before you bet it. This guide explains how first TD bets settle, how to turn the odds into a probability, what decides who scores first, the bet types on offer and the Statz NFL stats that help you research it.

What is a first touchdown scorer bet?

A first touchdown scorer bet is a wager on which player scores the first touchdown of the game, for either team. Pick the right man and you are paid at long odds, often somewhere between +500 and +1500 for the main scoring threats. Pick anyone else, or see the first score go to a player you did not back, and the bet loses.

It is one of the most popular NFL props because it is quick, it usually settles early, and a small stake can return a lot. It is also one of the hardest to beat. In the anytime touchdown market a player has the whole game to score; a first touchdown bet needs him to score before anyone else on either team does. Below are the season's prop leaders, including the players who score the most touchdowns, each linked to his game log.

The 2026 prop leaders

Regular season, so far. Each name opens that player's game-by-game log for the market. Touchdowns count rushing and receiving scores, the ones an anytime scorer bet pays on.

How first touchdown scorer bets are settled

The rules vary more between books in this market than in almost any other, so read your book's rules page before you bet. The common patterns:

• Only the player who scores counts. A quarterback who throws the first touchdown does not win a first scorer bet; the receiver who catches it does.
• Field goals and safeties do not count. The bet is on the first touchdown, however many field goals come before it.
• Defensive and special-teams touchdowns count. If an interception return or a kick return is the first touchdown, the player who scored it wins and every offensive selection loses.
• Overtime counts at most books if no touchdown has been scored in regulation.
• If your player does not take the field, the bet is usually void. If he plays only after the first touchdown has been scored, some books still settle it as a loser, so check the wording.
• If no touchdown is scored at all, bets on players lose, unless your book offers a no touchdown selection and you backed it.

Why first touchdown odds are so long

Every player in a first touchdown market is up against everyone else in the game, defences and special teams included. A lead running back who scores in about half his games might still score the first touchdown in only one game in seven or eight, because his team has to score first and he has to be the one who finishes that drive.

A rough way to think about it: his chance of scoring first is his team's chance of scoring the game's first touchdown, times his share of his team's touchdowns. If his team scores first a little over half the time and he scores about a quarter of its touchdowns, his first touchdown chance is around 14%, fair odds of about +600 (7.00). Turn every price into a probability the same way: +600 is 14.3%, +900 is 10% and +1000 is 9.1%.

Add up the implied probabilities of every player in a first touchdown market and the total runs well past 100%, far further than on a two-way prop. That excess is the bookmaker's margin, and it is why first touchdown bets are best kept to a small part of any betting plan. Our guide to reading NFL odds explains the margin.

What influences who scores the first touchdown

Who scores first comes down to role, team and the first few drives. These are the factors that matter most:

• Red-zone and goal-line role: the player his team trusts inside the ten-yard line has the clearest path. A back who takes the goal-line carries, or a big receiver or tight end targeted near the line, matters more than total yards.
• His team's chance of scoring first: the stronger offence in a mismatch is more likely to score first. The spread and the game total point the way.
• Who has the ball first: the team receiving the opening kickoff has the first chance to score, and many teams that win the toss choose to defer.
• The opposing defence: Best Matchups shows which defences have allowed the most to each position.
• Injuries and depth charts: a scratched starter moves the goal-line work to someone else. The injury report carries every designation.

First touchdown stats that matter

Start with touchdown volume and role, not first touchdowns. A player's first touchdown count over a season is a small number, and small numbers swing: a few first scores can come from a few lucky bounces. His total touchdowns, his red-zone touches and his goal-line carries or targets say more about his chances.

Then look at his team: how often has it scored the first touchdown of its games? A team that tends to start fast gives each of its scorers a better shot.

Finally, compare a player's first touchdown price with his anytime price and his team's chance of scoring first. If the first touchdown price looks short against both, the market may be pricing his name rather than his role.

How to research first touchdown bets with Statz NFL

Statz NFL does not price first touchdown scorer bets, and our projections do not produce a first touchdown chance. What we have is the research. Every running back, receiver and tight end has a first TD page showing how often he has scored the game's first touchdown, game by game, and every team has a first TD page showing how often it has scored first and which of its players did.

The anytime touchdown market is priced: every bet365 anytime scorer prop is measured against the projections, and the Props Tool shows our chance beside the price. A player's chance of scoring first can never be higher than his chance of scoring at all, so that figure is a useful ceiling for any first touchdown view; our guide to anytime touchdown predictions covers it in full. The touchdown leaders board ranks the season's top scorers, the game projections give each team's projected points and the odds board carries every spread and total.

First touchdown bet types explained

Books offer a family of scorer markets around the first touchdown. Statz NFL prices only the anytime market among them:

• First touchdown scorer: the first touchdown of the game, either team. The classic market.
• First team touchdown scorer: the first touchdown by one named team, which removes the need for that team to score first.
• Last touchdown scorer: the final touchdown of the game, overtime usually included.
• Anytime touchdown scorer: a touchdown at any point in the game. Priced on Statz NFL against the projections.
• First scoring play specials: the team to score first, or whether the first score is a touchdown, a field goal or a safety.
• Touchdown parlays: several scorers in one bet. Our touchdown parlays combine anytime scorers from different games.

First touchdown scorer betting tips

A few habits help most in a market this wide:

• Keep stakes small. Long odds mean long losing runs, even for a sound approach.
• Back roles, not names. The goal-line back or the red-zone tight end can be a better first touchdown bet than the star receiver at a shorter price.
• Wait for the news. Inactives are announced about 90 minutes before kickoff, and a late scratch changes who gets the goal-line work.
• Shop the price. First touchdown odds vary widely between books, and a few points on a long price add up.

Common first touchdown betting mistakes

The errors that cost first touchdown bettors most:

• Treating a season's first touchdown count as a skill. It is mostly role plus chance.
• Forgetting defensive and special-teams touchdowns, which beat every offensive selection.
• Backing the quarterback for a touchdown he throws. Only the scorer counts.
• Ignoring the margin. A first touchdown market carries far more of it than a two-way prop.

First touchdown scorer by player

Every running back, receiver and tight end has a first TD page with his first scores, game by game. Running backs: Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson and Kyren Williams.

Receivers and tight ends: Ja'Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Travis Kelce and Brock Bowers. Find anyone else on the players page.

First touchdown scorer by team

Every team has a first TD page showing how often it has scored the game's first touchdown and which of its players scored them. AFC: Bills, Dolphins, Jets, Patriots, Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Jaguars, Texans, Titans, Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs and Raiders.

NFC: Commanders, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Bears, Lions, Packers, Vikings, Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers, Saints, 49ers, Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks.

Final word: a small, informed bet

First touchdown scorer betting is fun, quick and hard to beat over time. Treat it as a small, occasional bet, back the player with the goal-line role on the team likely to score first, and use his anytime chance as a ceiling for what the first touchdown price should be. Check the inactives and shop the price.

Put it to work

• Anytime touchdown props Our chance beside every bet365 scorer price
• Touchdown leaders The season's top scorers, in total and per game
• NFL Game Projections Each team's projected points, every game

More NFL betting guides

• AI Anytime Touchdown Predictions: NFL TD Scorer Picks
• NFL Player Props, Explained
• How to Read NFL Odds
• NFL Rushing Yards Props: Carries, Game Script and Lines
• Same-Game Parlays: Why the Quoted Price Lies
• NFL Interception Props: QB Interceptions and Defensive Picks
• NFL Kicker Props: Field Goals and Kicking Points Explained
• NFL Passing Touchdowns Props: How to Bet QB TD Lines