Published October 7, 2026 by Statz NFL.
Backing a team on the spread or the moneyline is one opinion at two prices. How to convert between them, and when each one pays more for your view.
Same opinion, two prices
Say you fancy a team favoured by three points. You can lay the points at −3 (−110), which asks them to win by more than a field goal, or take the moneyline at something like −160, which only asks them to win. Both bets say the same thing — this side is better — but they settle on different outcomes and pay different amounts, so choosing between them is a pricing question, not a matter of taste.
The trick is to stop treating them as separate markets. A spread and a moneyline on the same team are two cuts of one picture: the range of final margins you expect. Whichever price pays more for the part of that range you believe in is the better bet.
Around a pick'em the two are almost the same bet. A one-point favourite at −1 and the same team on the moneyline settle differently only when they win by exactly one point, or in the rare tied game, so the choice comes down to price. The further the line moves from zero, the further apart the two bets drift, and the more the choice matters.
Favourites and the spread, 2026 season
Favourites won outright: 64.1% (41-23 straight up). Favourites covered: 45.8% (27-32-5 against the spread). Home teams covered: 50.8% (30-29-5, through Week 4).
From 2018 to 2025, favourites won 66.4% of regular-season games outright but covered the closing spread 48.0% of the time.
| Favoured by | Games | Won outright | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 2.5 | 497 | 53.0% | 48.8% |
| 3 | 309 | 59.9% | 47.7% |
| 3.5 to 6.5 | 748 | 66.2% | 47.7% |
| 7 | 121 | 74.8% | 48.7% |
| 7.5 to 9.5 | 234 | 75.1% | 44.4% |
| 10 to 13.5 | 199 | 84.4% | 51.0% |
| 14 or more | 83 | 90.4% | 46.3% |
| Team | W-L-P | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 4-0-0 | 100.0% |
| Buffalo Bills | 3-1-0 | 75.0% |
| Chicago Bears | 3-1-0 | 75.0% |
| Cleveland Browns | 3-1-0 | 75.0% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 3-1-0 | 75.0% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 3-1-0 | 75.0% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 3-1-0 | 75.0% |
| New York Giants | 3-1-0 | 75.0% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 3-1-0 | 75.0% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 2-1-1 | 66.7% |
| New England Patriots | 2-1-1 | 66.7% |
| New York Jets | 2-1-1 | 66.7% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 2-2-0 | 50.0% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 2-2-0 | 50.0% |
| Carolina Panthers | 2-2-0 | 50.0% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 2-2-0 | 50.0% |
| Denver Broncos | 2-2-0 | 50.0% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 2-2-0 | 50.0% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 2-2-0 | 50.0% |
| New Orleans Saints | 2-2-0 | 50.0% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 2-2-0 | 50.0% |
| Tennessee Titans | 2-2-0 | 50.0% |
| Washington Commanders | 2-2-0 | 50.0% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 1-1-2 | 50.0% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 1-2-1 | 33.3% |
| Miami Dolphins | 1-3-0 | 25.0% |
| Detroit Lions | 0-3-1 | 0.0% |
| Green Bay Packers | 0-3-1 | 0.0% |
| Houston Texans | 0-4-0 | 0.0% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-3-1 | 0.0% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0-4-0 | 0.0% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0-3-1 | 0.0% |
Regular season, settled against the closing line. Pushes and ties are left out of the percentages.
Converting a spread into a win probability
Every spread implies a rough chance of winning outright. A pick'em is a coin flip. A three-point favourite wins somewhere around six games in ten, a seven-point favourite roughly three in four, and even a ten-point favourite loses something like one game in six. The relationship is not a straight line, because final margins bunch on 3 and 7: moving a favourite from −2.5 to −3.5 shifts its fair moneyline far more than moving it from −4.5 to −5.5.
To compare the two bets properly, convert both prices to implied probability — the method is in our guide to reading NFL odds — and set each against your own view. A −160 moneyline needs the team to win 160 ÷ 260, about 61.5% of the time, just to break even; the spread at −110 needs it to cover 52.4% of the time. If you think the team wins seven times in ten, the moneyline carries value; if you think it covers 58% of the time, the spread does. Often both prices are fair, and then neither is a bet.
When the moneyline is the better bet
Short underdogs are the moneyline's natural home. If your view is that a team getting two and a half or three points is genuinely the better side, the moneyline — something like +130 — pays much more for being right than the spread's near-even money does. The extra points only matter when your team loses narrowly, and that is not the outcome you are backing.
The moneyline also suits a favourite you trust to win but not to win comfortably — the side that keeps games close by design, with a slow offence and a defence that bends without breaking. Laying −3.5 asks for a margin your own read says is unlikely; the moneyline pays only for the result you actually believe in.
When the spread is the better bet
Big favourites are the spread's territory. A −400 moneyline risks four units to win one, so a single upset wipes out the profit from four winners, and whatever edge you have is squeezed into a very short price. The spread lets you back the same team at roughly even money and asks a different question — not whether they win, but whether they win by enough. If you think the market has underrated a strong team, that is where the difference shows up.
Spreads also give you the key-number tools that moneylines lack. You can shop the half point across books, and around 3 and 7 that half point is worth more than a few cents of price. A favourite at −2.5 at one book and −3 at another is two genuinely different bets.
The comfort is priced in
Both bets come with a reassuring story. Taking an underdog with points feels like insurance — they can lose and you still win — and backing a favourite on the moneyline feels safe because all they have to do is win. Neither feeling is worth anything on its own. The points are priced into the spread and the safety is priced into the moneyline, so the comfort you buy is exactly what the book charges for.
A bet type is not a strategy. The useful question is always the same — which price pays more than your estimate says it should — and on most weeks, for most games, the honest answer is neither.
Ties, pushes and parlays
A whole-number spread can push and refund your stake. A moneyline cannot push on the margin, and NFL ties are rare, but settlement in a tied game depends on the market: a two-way moneyline is usually refunded, while a three-way market treats the tie as its own outcome. Check the rules at your book before relying on either.
In parlays, moneyline favourites are the classic trap. Stringing together four heavy favourites feels safe, but the bookmaker's margin multiplies with every leg and one upset loses the lot. Four −300 favourites each need to win 75% of the time to justify their prices; all four together land only about a third of the time. If you parlay at all, each leg's price matters as much as its probability.
The cleanest way to decide is to start from a forecast of the margin. Our game projections publish a projected margin and win probability for every game, which turns the choice into a straight comparison: which market pays more for what the model expects?
Put it to work
- Odds Board Spreads and moneylines side by side at every book, best price highlighted.
- Game Projections Projected margin and win probability for every game this week.
- Best Bets Where the model disagrees with the de-vigged market, on either bet.