Toronto RaptorsRaptors
Wed, Nov 49:00 PMETDenver
Denver NuggetsNuggets
TOR2.74DEN1.57via Polymarket

Toronto Raptors vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 4

Updated Nov 3, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

DEN

Statz pick

Denver Nuggets to win

We give the Denver Nuggets a 60% chance, against 40% for the Toronto Raptors. See the full projection →

60%
DEN to win
Polymarket1.57

The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets at 60% to beat the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday 4 November, with a model line of -3.3 and a projected total of 232.3. No bookmaker has posted a line yet. The injury that matters most is Kawhi Leonard, out for the Raptors for at least three to four weeks.

The Toronto Raptors visit the Denver Nuggets in Denver on Wednesday 4 November, with tip at 9:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Nuggets the favourite at 60% to win, with a model line of -3.3. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to set against it. Check the NBA odds page as books open.

How the teams arrive

Denver sit at 3-3 across six games, with a run of L W W L W L. The scoring swings are wide. The Nuggets beat NOP 141-135 at home and PHX 127-120 on the road, but they also lost 114-134 to GSW at home and 84-96 at OKC. Their latest game was a 110-118 home loss to POR. They average 113.3 points for and concede 115.7, so the defence has been the weaker side of the ledger.

Toronto arrive at 4-3 across seven games, with a run of W L L W L W W. The Raptors have been the better two-way side on paper, averaging 119.1 points for and 111.4 against. The big wins stand out: 135-92 over CHI and 129-99 over ORL, both at home. On the road the picture is mixed. They won 125-118 at LAC in their latest game, lost 125-131 at LAL, and were beaten 94-117 at MIN. Wednesday is another road game.

Team news and lineups

Denver have two names on the injury report. Spencer Jones is listed out. He has yet to play this season after a preseason hamstring injury, and Wednesday is his next chance to return. Julian Strawther is out with a left knee sprain and is set to be re-evaluated in six weeks. His minutes should go to Tyus Jones and possibly Ryan Nembhard in the meantime. Neither absence changes the core of the Nuggets rotation, but it thins the guard depth behind it.

Toronto's list is longer and the stakes are higher. Kawhi Leonard is out and expected to miss at least three to four weeks. His absence pushes more offensive usage onto the remaining rotation players. Nate Bittle is out with a foot injury, has no return timetable and is not expected to crack the rotation. Jakob Poeltl is day-to-day with left shoulder bursitis and has missed his last two games. If he sits again, Collin Murray-Boyles and Tracye Jackson-Davis stand to see more playing time in the frontcourt. Poeltl's status is the one to watch before tip.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic is projected for 25.3 points, 12.3 rebounds and 8.6 assists. With Toronto's rotation short of size if Poeltl is out, he is the biggest mismatch on the floor and the hub of everything Denver do.

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray is projected for 25.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 3.9 threes. The model has him as the top scorer on the Denver side. His shot volume from deep is the swing factor in a game with a high projected total.

Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon is projected for 14.7 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.6 assists. His job is defence and finishing around Jokic. A steady line from him usually means the Nuggets offence is flowing.

RJ Barrett

RJ Barrett leads Toronto in the projection at 21.6 points, 5.9 rebounds and 3.5 assists, with 2.0 threes. With Leonard out, the Raptors need him to carry the scoring load on the wing.

Scottie Barnes

Scottie Barnes is projected for 20.4 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.2 assists. He is the Raptors' best playmaker in the frontcourt and the player most likely to create for others when Denver send help at Barrett.

Immanuel Quickley

Immanuel Quickley is projected for 17.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 3.0 threes. He supplies the perimeter spacing and the pace. If Toronto stay within range, his shooting is usually why.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Denver Nuggets. It gives them a 60% win probability and projects a home margin that produces a model line of -3.3, with Toronto at +3.3. Team scoring projections are 117.8 for Denver and 114.5 for Toronto, which makes the model total 232.3.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make yet because the market is missing. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so we cannot say whether -3.3 or 232.3 offers value, and we are not taking a total lean until a number is posted. The edge is clear in direction: Denver at home, Toronto without Leonard and possibly without Poeltl. The price decides whether it is worth backing.

Statz pick: Denver Nuggets on the model line of -3.3, with a 60% win probability.

Lines move before tip, so check the number once books post it and again close to 9:00 PM ET, especially for news on Poeltl. See the full preview for the model, form and recent meetings.

TOR @ DEN questions

Who does the model favour in Raptors at Nuggets?
The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets with a 60% win probability. The Toronto Raptors sit at 40%. The model line is Denver -3.3 and Toronto +3.3, and the game is in Denver on Wednesday 4 November.
What time is Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets?
Tip is at 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday 4 November 2026 in Denver. Lineups and injury news can change before the game, so check the latest status on Jakob Poeltl, who is listed as day-to-day for Toronto.
What is the projected total for Raptors vs Nuggets?
The Statz model projects a total of 232.3 points, with Denver at 117.8 and Toronto at 114.5. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare against the model.
Is Kawhi Leonard playing for the Raptors?
No. Kawhi Leonard is out with a knee injury and is expected to miss at least three to four weeks. The reported window is a minimum rather than a firm return date, and it leaves more usage for Toronto's remaining rotation players.
Who is injured for the Denver Nuggets?
Spencer Jones is out with a hamstring injury and has yet to play this season, though Wednesday is his next opportunity to return. Julian Strawther is out with a left knee sprain and will be re-evaluated in six weeks.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Toronto Raptors or Denver Nuggets?

The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets with a 60% win probability, leaving the Toronto Raptors at 40%. Over their last five games the Denver Nuggets are 3-2 and the Toronto Raptors are 2-3. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets?

No spread or total is posted yet for Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets?

For Toronto Raptors at Denver Nuggets, the model projects Jamal Murray for 24.5 points and Nikola Jokic for 24.2 points for the Denver Nuggets. For the Toronto Raptors it projects RJ Barrett for 20.6 points and Scottie Barnes for 19.5 points.