Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 4

Phoenix come home in poor form. The Suns are 1-4 over their five games this season, with a run of L L L W L. They average 112.2 points for and concede 122.8. Their last outing was a 113-116 loss at Golden State. Before that came a 120-127 home loss to Denver and a 114-125 defeat at Oklahoma City. Their one win was a 131-122 home result over Golden State. The outlier is the 83-124 loss at Portland on 21 October, a heavy defeat that shapes how the model sees this meeting.

Portland arrive in much better shape. The Trail Blazers are 5-1 over six games, running W W L W W W. They score 120.2 and allow 109.3. They won 118-110 at Denver in their last game and 112-90 at Utah before that. The one blemish was a 103-124 home loss to Memphis. They also won 136-129 at the Lakers and 128-120 at Sacramento. They are on the road again here, but their results away from home this season have been strong.

Portland's biggest absence is Ja Morant. He has a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to miss four weeks, with a return pencilled in for 1 December. That leaves a hole in the backcourt, and Jrue Holiday is the player expected to absorb the extra work. Expect more ball-handling and more minutes for him. Shaedon Sharpe is also out with a torn meniscus and is not expected back until 2 March 2027. His absence thins the wing rotation, and Vit Krejci and Jeremy Sochan are the names in line for bench minutes.

Phoenix have two concerns of their own. Jordan Goodwin is day-to-day with a left calf injury. He left Monday's game against the Warriors after 10 minutes, and the severity is unclear. If he cannot go, Rasheer Fleming and Ryan Dunn are the players named to pick up work. Mark Williams is out after shoulder surgery on a torn labrum, with a return date of 3 February 2027. That puts the centre minutes on Oso Ighodaro and Khaman Maluach.

Both teams are short on the perimeter. Portland's loss is the bigger one on paper, since Morant is a star. Phoenix's is a front-court loss, in a team that already concedes 122.8 per game.

The model takes the Portland Trail Blazers. It gives them a 55% win probability and a projected margin that makes them 1.7-point favourites on the model line (-1.7), with the Phoenix Suns at +1.7. Team points project at 114.7 for Portland and 112.9 for Phoenix, for a total of 227.6.

There is no market to measure that against. The market side is missing: no bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so we cannot say whether the model line is better or worse than the price, and we cannot make a total lean. Without a market total, 227.6 is only the model's number.

The case for Portland is simple. They are 5-1 this season, they scored 124-83 in the earlier meeting at home, and Phoenix are 1-4 and conceding 122.8 per game. Morant's absence tempers that, and the edge is small. Check the NBA odds page once lines are up.

Statz pick: Portland Trail Blazers, 55% win probability, model line -1.7.

Lines move before tip, so check the price and the injury news before you act.