New Orleans PelicansPelicans
Mon, Nov 910:00 PMETGolden State
Golden State WarriorsWarriors
NOP4.08GSW1.32via Polymarket

New Orleans Pelicans vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 9

Updated Nov 8, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

GSW

Statz pick

Golden State Warriors to win

We give the Golden State Warriors a 65% chance, against 35% for the New Orleans Pelicans. See the full projection →

65%
GSW to win
Polymarket1.32

The Statz model favours the Golden State Warriors at home, giving them a 65% win probability and a model line of -5.3 against the New Orleans Pelicans. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters most is Yves Missi, who is out for the Pelicans.

The New Orleans Pelicans visit the Golden State Warriors on Monday 9 November, with tip at 10:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Golden State the favourite with a 65% win probability and a model line of -5.3. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so the market side of the comparison is blank for now.

How the teams arrive

Golden State arrive in strong form at 7-3 over their last 10. They have won seven straight, and the run includes a 126-119 win over ORL, a 120-100 win over MIA and a 134-114 win at DEN. The three losses all came earlier, including 105-127 at LAL. They average 118.6 points for and 113.6 against, and tonight is a home game.

New Orleans are 4-5 over nine games and travel on the back of a 109-115 home loss to MIN. They have shown they can score, with a 135-134 win at MEM, a 121-99 win over ATL and a 132-120 win over SAC. They also lost 91-104 to DEN. They average 120.2 points for and 118.8 against, so the defence is the soft spot.

Team news and lineups

Golden State are without three players. Kristaps Porzingis is out after announcing he is stepping away from basketball. Jimmy Butler is out recovering from a torn right ACL, with a return pencilled in for January or February. Moses Moody is out with a knee injury and is progressing toward a return between December and January.

The effect lands on the wings. With Butler and Moody both out, Golden State's wing minutes go to the depth players, and the model leans on the guards and on Yaxel Lendeborg for scoring. The Warriors have been winning anyway, which says the rotation is holding.

New Orleans list Yves Missi as out with a left knee bone bruise. His listed return date is 9 November, the day of the game, but he has no confirmed timetable, so treat him as out. His absence thins the frontcourt and lifts the minutes for the bigs behind him. Malik Dia and Jaron Pierre Jr. are on two-way deals in the G League and are listed out, so they change nothing in the main rotation.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Stephen Curry

Stephen Curry is projected for 24.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 3.6 threes. He is the engine of the Warriors offence, and the three-point number is the one to watch against a Pelicans defence that has conceded plenty.

Yaxel Lendeborg

Yaxel Lendeborg is projected for 19.4 points, 7.0 rebounds and 3.4 assists. With the wings depleted, his scoring and rebounding give Golden State a second option inside and out.

Brandin Podziemski

Brandin Podziemski is projected for 16.1 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists. His rebounding from the guard spot helps the Warriors in a game where New Orleans are short of size without Missi.

Zion Williamson

Zion Williamson is projected for 19.1 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.8 assists. He is the Pelicans' top scorer in the model, and his drives are their clearest route to points against the Golden State defence.

Trey Murphy III

Trey Murphy III is projected for 16.5 points and 3.2 threes. That is the best three-point number on the New Orleans side, and the spacing he gives Williamson matters.

Dejounte Murray

Dejounte Murray is projected for 15.8 points, 4.9 rebounds and 5.8 assists. He is the Pelicans' main playmaker, and his assist figure is the highest on the roster in this projection.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Golden State Warriors. They have a 65% win probability and a projected home margin that produces a model line of -5.3. The projected score is Golden State 119.0 and New Orleans 113.7, a model total of 232.7.

There is no market to compare against. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline yet, so the model-versus-market comparison cannot be made, and there is no total lean to give. Check NBA odds once lines go up and measure them against -5.3 and 232.7.

Statz pick: Golden State Warriors, model line -5.3. The case rests on home court, a seven-game winning run and a Pelicans defence that has been leaky. Lines move before tip, so confirm the price and the injury news before you act. See the full preview for the model, form and recent meetings.

NOP @ GSW questions

Who does the model favour, Pelicans or Warriors?
The Statz model favours the Golden State Warriors. They have a 65% win probability at home, with a model line of -5.3. The New Orleans Pelicans are the underdog at 35%, and the model projects a final score of 119.0 to 113.7.
What is the model total for Pelicans at Warriors?
The model total is 232.7 points, built from 119.0 for the Golden State Warriors and 113.7 for the New Orleans Pelicans. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it against.
What time is Pelicans at Warriors on 9 November?
The game tips off on Monday 9 November at 10:00 PM ET, with the Golden State Warriors at home against the New Orleans Pelicans. Lines have not been posted yet, so check the odds page nearer tip.
Which injuries matter for this game?
For the Pelicans, Yves Missi is out with a knee bone bruise. The Warriors are without Kristaps Porzingis, Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody, which thins their wing rotation. Malik Dia and Jaron Pierre Jr. are on two-way deals in the G League.
How have the Warriors played lately?
Golden State are 7-3 over their last 10 and have won seven straight. Recent results include 126-119 over ORL, 120-100 over MIA and 134-114 at DEN. They average 118.6 points for and 113.6 against.
Which Pelicans and Warriors players does the model rate highest?
Stephen Curry leads the Warriors with a projected 24.9 points, with Yaxel Lendeborg at 19.4. For the Pelicans, Zion Williamson is projected for 19.1 points and Trey Murphy III for 16.5, including 3.2 threes.

More NBA previews

18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds are subject to change.

Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, New Orleans Pelicans or Golden State Warriors?

The Statz model favours the Golden State Warriors with a 65% win probability, leaving the New Orleans Pelicans at 35%. Over their last five games the Golden State Warriors are 5-0 and the New Orleans Pelicans are 4-1. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors?

No spread or total is posted yet for New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors?

For New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors, the model projects Stephen Curry for 24.9 points and Yaxel Lendeborg for 19.4 points for the Golden State Warriors. For the New Orleans Pelicans it projects Zion Williamson for 19.1 points and Trey Murphy III for 16.5 points.