Minnesota TimberwolvesTimberwolves
Wed, Nov 48:30 PMETHouston
Houston RocketsRockets
MIN3.77HOU1.36SpreadHOU -8.5Total222.5via Polymarket

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 4

Updated Nov 3, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

HOU

Statz pick

Houston Rockets to win

We give the Houston Rockets a 74% chance, against 26% for the Minnesota Timberwolves. See the full projection →

74%
HOU to win
Polymarket1.36

The Statz model favours the Houston Rockets at 74% to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves, with a projected line of -8.3 against a market spread of -9.5. That gap points to the Timberwolves side. Anthony Edwards is the injury that matters for Minnesota, and the model total of 224.3 sits almost on the market 224.5.

The Minnesota Timberwolves visit the Houston Rockets on Wednesday 4 November, with tip at 8:30 PM ET. The Statz model makes Houston the favourite at 74%, and the market agrees on the side, laying -9.5. The model line is -8.3, so the number is a little steep. Our full numbers are on the NBA odds page.

How the teams arrive

Houston is 7-1 across its eight games this season and has scored 119.3 points a game while allowing 106.4. The wins have been emphatic: 132-100 at Milwaukee, 119-98 against Oklahoma City and 109-93 against Boston in its latest outing at home. The one defeat was 111-116 at Dallas. The defence is the story here, because those margins come from stops as much as shot-making.

Minnesota is 5-3 and has been less steady. The Timberwolves average 119.0 points and concede 107.6, close to Houston's numbers, but the results swing more. They beat the Clippers 127-101 and Miami 131-106 away from home, then lost 111-121 at San Antonio and 125-127 at Cleveland. A 112-100 home win over Milwaukee on 2 November ended a patchy run. This is their road game after a home date, and Houston is a tougher test than most of the schedule so far.

Team news and lineups

The injury list is lopsided in effect, even if both sides are thin. For Minnesota, Anthony Edwards is out after knee surgery, with the team giving no timetable and reporting pointing to up to two months. He was averaging 33.3 points across four appearances, so the offence has lost its main source of shot creation. Donte DiVincenzo is also out with an Achilles injury and the club has set no return date.

Terrence Shannon Jr. is day-to-day with a hip contusion, and Wednesday is his next chance to play. If he sits, more minutes go to Ayo Dosunmu, Isaiah Evans and Jaylen Clark. Without Edwards, the Timberwolves lean on ball handling from the guards and a lot more shooting from the wings. That is the main reason the model sees them as underdogs.

Houston has its own gaps in the frontcourt. Steven Adams is out with a right soleus strain and is considered week-to-week, with a return date of 9 November. Clint Capela is also listed out with an ankle problem. That leaves Alperen Sengun to soak up the big-man minutes, and Oscar Tshiebwe could enter the rotation behind him. It matters on the glass, but Houston's depth elsewhere softens the blow.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant is projected for 22.7 points, 5.6 rebounds and 4.0 assists, with 1.9 threes. He is the top scorer on either side in our projection. With Edwards out, Durant is the best individual scorer on the floor.

Alperen Sengun

Alperen Sengun is projected for 20.9 points, 9.6 rebounds and 6.0 assists. With both Adams and Capela out, he carries the interior load, and his passing from the post drives much of Houston's offence.

Jabari Smith Jr.

Jabari Smith Jr. is projected for 16.4 points, 7.1 rebounds and 2.4 threes. His spacing keeps the floor open for Durant and Sengun, and his rebounds help cover the thin frontcourt.

LaMelo Ball

LaMelo Ball is Minnesota's top projected scorer at 18.6 points, with 3.8 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 3.7 threes. With Edwards out, he is the main creator and the one who can keep Minnesota close with volume from deep.

Jaden McDaniels

Jaden McDaniels is projected for 15.4 points, 4.5 rebounds and 2.8 assists. His job is two-way: score in the gaps and take the toughest wing assignment against Durant.

Ayo Dosunmu

Ayo Dosunmu is projected for 15.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 1.8 threes. He is one of the guards in line for extra minutes with the injuries, which makes his line worth watching.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Houston Rockets to win, at 74%, with a projected margin that makes them -8.3 favourites. The market has them at -9.5 at most books, with some at -8.5. That is a gap of 1.2 points, and it leans to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Houston is the likelier winner, but the price on the spread asks a lot of a team that has to cover a number near double digits.

On the total, the model projects 224.3 against a market line of 224.5. The gap is 0.2 points and the model leans to neither side. We have no edge on the over or under here, so the total is a pass. The best over price is 1.95 at Caesars and the best under price is 1.91 at Betway.

Moneyline prices reflect the same view: the best Houston price is 1.29 at DraftKings and the best Minnesota price is 3.85 at FanDuel.

Statz pick: Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5 at 1.89 (Betparx), model line -8.3 against market -9.5.

Lines move before tip, so check the latest prices and injury news, especially Shannon's status, before you act.

MIN @ HOU questions

Who does the model favour in Timberwolves at Rockets?
The Statz model favours the Houston Rockets at 74%, with the Minnesota Timberwolves at 26%. The model projects Houston to win by 8.3 points at home on Wednesday 4 November, with tip at 8:30 PM ET.
What is the market spread for Timberwolves at Rockets?
Most books have the Houston Rockets at -9.5, with a few at -8.5. The best Rockets price is 1.95 at Boylesports and the best Timberwolves price at +9.5 is 1.89 at Betparx. The model line is -8.3.
What is the total for this game?
The market total is 224.5 at most books, with a few at 223.5. The Statz model projects 224.3, a gap of 0.2 points, so the model leans to neither side. The best over price is 1.95 at Caesars.
Is Anthony Edwards playing for the Timberwolves?
No. Anthony Edwards is out after a knee procedure, and the team has given no timetable. Reporting points to up to two months. He averaged 33.3 points across four appearances this season before the injury.
Who is out for the Houston Rockets?
Steven Adams is out with a right soleus strain and is week-to-week, with a return date of 9 November. Clint Capela is also listed out with an ankle injury, which leaves Alperen Sengun with more frontcourt minutes.
How have the two teams started the season?
The Houston Rockets are 7-1 across eight games, averaging 119.3 points and allowing 106.4. The Minnesota Timberwolves are 5-3, averaging 119.0 points and allowing 107.6. Houston's one defeat was 111-116 at Dallas.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Minnesota Timberwolves or Houston Rockets?

The Statz model favours the Houston Rockets with a 74% win probability, leaving the Minnesota Timberwolves at 26%. Draftkings agrees, pricing the Houston Rockets as the favourite at -8.5 on the spread. The moneyline is -345 for the Houston Rockets and +276 for the Minnesota Timberwolves.

What is the spread and total for Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets?

Draftkings lists the Houston Rockets at -8.5 with the total at 223.5 for Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets?

For Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets, the model projects Kevin Durant for 21.7 points and Alperen Sengun for 19.9 points for the Houston Rockets. For the Minnesota Timberwolves it projects LaMelo Ball for 17.7 points and Jaden McDaniels for 14.7 points.