Dallas MavericksMavericks
Wed, Nov 49:30 PMETSan Antonio
San Antonio SpursSpurs
DAL5.41SAS1.23SpreadSAS -12.5Total229.5via Polymarket

Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 4

Updated Nov 3, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

SAS

Statz pick

San Antonio Spurs to win

We give the San Antonio Spurs a 84% chance, against 16% for the Dallas Mavericks. See the full projection →

84%
SAS to win
Polymarket1.23

The model favours the San Antonio Spurs at 84% to beat the Dallas Mavericks, with a projected margin of 12.9 points against a market line of -12.5. The total is 229.9 against 229.5. The injury that matters most is Kyrie Irving, listed day-to-day for Dallas after a knee issue.

The Dallas Mavericks visit the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday 4 November, with tip at 9:30 PM ET. The model makes San Antonio the favourite at 84%, and the market agrees on the side with the Spurs at -12.5. The model line is -12.9, so the two are close.

How the teams arrive

San Antonio are 5-2 over their seven games this season and have won five in a row. They beat Utah 119-97 at home on 2 November and Minnesota 121-111 before that. They also beat Sacramento 130-103. The two losses came early, 110-114 to Houston and 104-116 to Oklahoma City. They average 117.6 points for and 108.3 against.

Dallas are 4-3 and have alternated results lately. They lost 100-115 at home to Sacramento in their latest game, after beating Houston 116-111 and Oklahoma City 120-96. They also won 113-109 at Miami. Their points for and against both average 112.3. The Mavericks lost 106-122 to San Antonio on 24 October, and this is a road game for them.

Team news and lineups

Dallas carry the longer list. Kyrie Irving (knee) is day-to-day after missing the Sacramento game. Max Christie (hip) is also day-to-day and left that game early, so he is questionable. If Irving sits, Marcus Sasser and Walter Clayton are candidates for more minutes, and Cooper Flagg would take on more playmaking.

Out for Dallas are Santi Aldama (knee), Dereck Lively II (foot, week-to-week), Tarik Biberovic (heel) and Sergio De Larrea (knee). With Lively out, Daniel Gafford and Moussa Cisse handle most of the work at the five.

San Antonio are without Jayden Quaintance, who has not been cleared for basketball activities, and Tobias Harris (calf), who has yet to debut for the Spurs. Neither absence looks likely to change the rotation much.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Victor Wembanyama

Victor Wembanyama is projected for 26.7 points, 12.1 rebounds and 3.4 assists. Dallas are thin up front, and he is the focal point of the model's 121.4 points for San Antonio.

De'Aaron Fox

De'Aaron Fox is projected for 17.3 points and 6.0 assists. His pace and playmaking drive the Spurs' scoring.

Stephon Castle

Stephon Castle is projected for 15.9 points, 5.9 rebounds and 6.8 assists. He is the highest assist projection on the Spurs.

Cooper Flagg

Cooper Flagg is projected for 21.6 points, 6.6 rebounds and 5.7 assists. He leads Dallas, and his workload grows if Irving is out.

Kyrie Irving

Kyrie Irving is projected for 19.1 points and 2.5 threes, though his knee status decides whether that holds. He is the Mavericks' second scorer.

Naji Marshall

Naji Marshall is projected for 14.0 points and 4.4 assists. He is a secondary creator for a Dallas side short on ball handlers.

Statz prediction

The model takes the San Antonio Spurs. Its 84% win probability and -12.9 line sit right beside the market's -12.5, a gap of 0.4 points, so it leans to neither side of the spread. San Antonio have beaten Dallas in all five recent head-to-head meetings, including 122-106 on 24 October.

The model total is 229.9 against a market total of 229.5, also a gap of 0.4 points, and again it leans to neither side. The model gives Dallas 108.5 points, which is below their season average of 112.3, and San Antonio 121.4. The total is a pass with no clear lean.

Statz pick: San Antonio Spurs -12.5 (1.95 at Betway), with a pass on the total at 229.5. Check Irving's status first. Lines move before tip, so check the latest NBA odds before you bet.

DAL @ SAS questions

Who is favoured in Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs?
The model favours the San Antonio Spurs at 84%, with the Dallas Mavericks at 16%. The market also has San Antonio as the favourite, at -12.5. The model's projected home margin is 12.9 points.
What is the spread for Mavericks vs Spurs?
Most books have San Antonio at -12.5 and Dallas at +12.5. The best home price is 1.95 at Betway and the best away price is 1.93 at FanDuel. The model line is -12.9, only 0.4 points from the market.
What is the over/under for Mavericks vs Spurs?
The market total is 229.5, with the best over price at 1.94 at FanDuel and the best under price at 1.91 at Ballybet. The model total is 229.9, so the model leans to neither side.
Is Kyrie Irving playing for Dallas against San Antonio?
Kyrie Irving is listed as day-to-day with a knee injury. He missed the Sacramento game on Monday. Max Christie is also day-to-day with a hip injury. Check the latest news before tip.
What time is Mavericks vs Spurs on 4 November?
Tip is at 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday 4 November. San Antonio are at home. Dallas are on the road.
How have the Spurs done against the Mavericks recently?
San Antonio have won all five recent head-to-head meetings. The latest was a 122-106 win on 24 October. Their next most recent meetings finished 139-120 and 138-125.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Dallas Mavericks or San Antonio Spurs?

The Statz model favours the San Antonio Spurs with a 84% win probability, leaving the Dallas Mavericks at 16%. Draftkings agrees, pricing the San Antonio Spurs as the favourite at -12.5 on the spread. The moneyline is -650 for the San Antonio Spurs and +474 for the Dallas Mavericks.

What is the spread and total for Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs?

Draftkings lists the San Antonio Spurs at -12.5 with the total at 229.5 for Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs?

For Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs, the model projects Victor Wembanyama for 25.5 points and De'Aaron Fox for 16.5 points for the San Antonio Spurs. For the Dallas Mavericks it projects Cooper Flagg for 20.6 points and Kyrie Irving for 18.2 points.