Cleveland CavaliersCavaliers
Wed, Nov 48:00 PMETOklahoma City
Oklahoma City ThunderThunder
CLE2.25OKC1.80SpreadOKC -1.5Total228.5via Polymarket

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 4

Updated Nov 3, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

OKC

Statz pick

Oklahoma City Thunder to win

We give the Oklahoma City Thunder a 59% chance, against 41% for the Cleveland Cavaliers. See the full projection →

59%
OKC to win
Polymarket1.80

The model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder at 59% against the Cleveland Cavaliers, with a model line of -2.9 against a market spread of -2.5. The model total of 229.0 sits just above the 228.5 market number. The injury that matters most is Chet Holmgren, out with a patellar tendon tear.

The Cleveland Cavaliers visit the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday 4 November 2026, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model favours the Thunder at 59%, and the market agrees on the side with Oklahoma City at -2.5. It is the second meeting in three days, and the model sees a tight game.

How the teams arrive

Oklahoma City is 5-2 over its last seven, with a run of W L L W W W W. The Thunder beat Cleveland 117-112 on Monday, but they also lost 98-119 at Houston and 96-120 at Dallas. They average 108.0 points for and 107.7 against. That is a thin margin for a team that is a favourite tonight. Tonight they are at home, where they beat Phoenix 125-114, the Clippers 108-101 and Denver 96-84.

Cleveland is 4-3 over the same stretch, with a sequence of L W L W W W L. The Cavaliers lost 112-117 at home to Oklahoma City on Monday. Before that they won 136-111 at Milwaukee, which stands out, and lost 111-114 at Atlanta. They average 119.7 points for and 116.1 against. That is a high-scoring profile, and it feeds the total lean. Cleveland now travels for the rematch.

Team news and lineups

Oklahoma City is badly short of bodies. Chet Holmgren is out with a small patellar tendon tear and will miss at least 8-10 weeks. Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace are both out and expected to miss most, if not all, of the season. Alex Caruso is out with an ankle sprain. Thomas Sorber and Nikola Topic are also out.

The effect is on minutes and roles. Jared McCain, Kenrich Williams and Jaylin Williams pick up more playing time, and McCain could be pushed into a big role. Holmgren's absence leaves the frontcourt thin. Aday Mara is also named as a candidate for more minutes.

Cleveland has two day-to-day names. Jaylon Tyson has an ankle sprain and missed Monday. Peyton Watson has a hamstring issue and also sat Monday. Both have Wednesday as their next chance to return. If they miss out, Mario Hezonja, Meleek Thomas and Sam Merrill soak up the minutes.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for 32.1 points, 4.4 rebounds and 6.1 assists. With so many rotation players out, the Thunder offence runs through him.

Ajay Mitchell

Ajay Mitchell is projected for 15.6 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists. He is the second creator on a short roster.

Jared McCain

Jared McCain is projected for 12.6 points and 2.3 threes. The injury news points to an expanded role for him.

Donovan Mitchell

Donovan Mitchell is projected for 21.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 2.8 threes. He is Cleveland's top scorer in the model.

James Harden

James Harden is projected for 17.8 points, 7.2 assists and 3.2 threes. His playmaking and shooting both matter against a depleted Oklahoma City side.

Evan Mobley

Evan Mobley is projected for 17.0 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists. With Holmgren out, his two-way work gives Cleveland an edge inside.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Oklahoma City Thunder. It gives them 59%, with a model line of -2.9 against a market spread of -2.5. The gap is 0.4 points, and the model leans to neither side on the spread. The edge is in the side, not the number.

The model total is 229.0 against a market total of 228.5. The gap is 0.5 points, and the model leans to the over. The best over price is 1.93 at Ballybet. Cleveland's scoring average of 119.7 supports the lean, and so does a Thunder side forced to play without its depth.

Statz pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5 at 1.89 with FanDuel, with a lean to the over 228.5 at 1.93 with Ballybet.

Lines move before tip, especially with Tyson and Watson still day-to-day, so check the latest NBA odds before you act.

CLE @ OKC questions

Who does the model favour, Cavaliers or Thunder?
The Statz model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder at 59%, which leaves the Cleveland Cavaliers at 41%. The model line is Thunder -2.9. The market also has Oklahoma City as the favourite.
What is the spread for Cavaliers at Thunder?
The market spread is Oklahoma City -2.5 and Cleveland +2.5. The best Thunder price is 1.89 at FanDuel and the best Cavaliers price is 1.95 at Caesars. The model line of -2.9 is 0.4 points from the market.
What is the total for Cavaliers vs Thunder?
The market total is 228.5, and the model total is 229.0. The gap is 0.5 points and the model leans to the over. The best over price is 1.93 at Ballybet, and the best under price is 1.91 at FanDuel.
Who is injured for the Thunder?
Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Thomas Sorber and Nikola Topic are all listed as out. Holmgren will miss at least 8-10 weeks. Jared McCain, Kenrich Williams and Jaylin Williams are in line for more minutes.
Who is day-to-day for the Cavaliers?
Jaylon Tyson (ankle) and Peyton Watson (hamstring) are both day-to-day. Both missed Monday's loss to Oklahoma City, and Wednesday is their next chance to play. Mario Hezonja, Meleek Thomas and Sam Merrill gain minutes if they sit.
What happened in the last Cavaliers and Thunder game?
Oklahoma City won 117-112 at Cleveland on Monday. The Thunder have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings. Tonight is the rematch, with Oklahoma City at home.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Cleveland Cavaliers or Oklahoma City Thunder?

The Statz model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder with a 59% win probability, leaving the Cleveland Cavaliers at 41%. Draftkings agrees, pricing the Oklahoma City Thunder as the favourite at -2.5 on the spread. The moneyline is -138 for the Oklahoma City Thunder and +117 for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

What is the spread and total for Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder?

Draftkings lists the Oklahoma City Thunder at -2.5 with the total at 228.5 for Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder?

For Cleveland Cavaliers at Oklahoma City Thunder, the board's headline props are Ajay Mitchell 9.5+ assists at 23.00, Aday Mara 9.5+ rebounds at 3.90 and Ajay Mitchell 3.5+ threes at 10.50. For the Oklahoma City Thunder the model projects Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for 30.7 points and Ajay Mitchell for 14.9 points.