Yes, Vélez Sarsfield have taken 52 points over 29 Liga Profesional de Fútbol games in 2026, 11.63 more than the 40.37 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Vélez Sarsfield create 1.12 expected goals (xG) per game over 29 Liga Profesional de Fútbol games in 2026, 32.42 in all, and have scored 36 goals from those chances, 3.58 more than that xG would expect.
Vélez Sarsfield allow 1.08 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 29 Liga Profesional de Fútbol games in 2026, 31.30 in all, and have conceded 25 goals from those chances, 6.30 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Florián Monzón has the most expected goals (xG) for Vélez Sarsfield over 29 Liga Profesional de Fútbol games in 2026, 4.56 xG in 15 appearances, and has scored 6 goals; Dilan Godoy is next with 3.42 xG.
Vélez Sarsfield have taken 11.6 points more than their chances warranted over 29 games: +3.6 goals against their xG, and +6.3 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/ | 29 | 32.42 | 36 | +3.58 | 31.30 | 25 | +6.30 | 40.37 | 52 | +11.63 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 10.44 | 13 | +2.56 | 12.94 | 12 | +0.94 | 12.17 | 15 | +2.83 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.83 | 7 | +1.17 | 7.49 | 7 | +0.49 | 5.74 | 8 | +2.26 |
| Home | 15 | 19.59 | 19 | -0.59 | 16.80 | 11 | +5.80 | 22.45 | 32 | +9.55 |
| Away | 14 | 12.83 | 17 | +4.17 | 14.50 | 14 | +0.50 | 17.92 | 20 | +2.08 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (H) | 1-0 | 1.71 | 0.85 | 1.97 | 3 | W |
| 12 Oct | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Lanús (A) | 2-0 | 0.56 | 1.54 | 0.65 | 0 | L |
| 5 Oct | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Platense (H) | 2-2 | 1.14 | 2.01 | 0.85 | 1 | L |
| 21 Sep | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Tigre (H) | 3-2 | 2.00 | 1.30 | 1.82 | 3 | W |
| 11 Sep | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Newell's Old Boys (A) | 1-1 | 0.42 | 1.79 | 0.45 | 1 | L |
| 6 Sep | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Estudiantes (H) | 1-0 | 1.56 | 0.42 | 2.23 | 3 | W |
| 29 Aug | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Deportivo Riestra (A) | 1-1 | 0.69 | 0.58 | 1.40 | 1 | D |
| 23 Aug | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | River Plate (A) | 2-2 | 0.98 | 0.79 | 1.49 | 1 | W |
| 17 Aug | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Defensa y Justicia (H) | 1-1 | 0.86 | 1.48 | 0.92 | 1 | L |
| 8 Aug | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Boca Juniors (A) | 1-1 | 0.52 | 2.18 | 0.39 | 1 | L |
| 3 Aug | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Independiente (H) | 1-0 | 1.14 | 0.41 | 1.95 | 3 | W |
| 30 Jul | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Talleres Córdoba (A) | 1-3 | 1.17 | 1.56 | 1.11 | 3 | L |
| 24 Jul | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Instituto (H) | 1-0 | 0.61 | 2.56 | 0.34 | 3 | L |
| 4 May | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Newell's Old Boys (H) | 1-1 | 1.27 | 1.22 | 1.40 | 1 | W |
| 27 Apr | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Unión Santa Fe (H) | 2-2 | 2.68 | 1.42 | 2.09 | 1 | W |
| 20 Apr | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | San Lorenzo (A) | 0-0 | 0.62 | 0.66 | 1.26 | 1 | D |
| 14 Apr | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Central Cordoba SdE (H) | 1-0 | 2.88 | 1.03 | 2.39 | 3 | W |
| 3 Apr | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (A) | 3-2 | 1.36 | 0.99 | 1.63 | 0 | W |
| 21 Mar | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Lanús (H) | 0-1 | 0.52 | 1.15 | 0.82 | 0 | L |
| 14 Mar | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Platense (A) | 0-2 | 1.00 | 1.01 | 1.34 | 3 | L |
| 10 Mar | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Tigre (A) | 1-1 | 1.26 | 1.08 | 1.49 | 1 | W |
| 2 Mar | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Estudiantes (A) | 0-1 | 0.79 | 0.54 | 1.53 | 3 | D |
| 25 Feb | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Deportivo Riestra (H) | 0-0 | 0.64 | 0.49 | 1.44 | 1 | D |
| 22 Feb | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | River Plate (H) | 1-0 | 0.79 | 0.59 | 1.49 | 3 | D |
| 14 Feb | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Defensa y Justicia (A) | 1-1 | 1.36 | 0.34 | 2.17 | 1 | W |
| 9 Feb | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Boca Juniors (H) | 2-1 | 1.21 | 0.35 | 2.06 | 3 | W |
| 31 Jan | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Independiente (A) | 1-1 | 1.76 | 0.86 | 1.99 | 1 | W |
| 27 Jan | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Talleres Córdoba (H) | 2-1 | 0.58 | 1.52 | 0.68 | 3 | L |
| 23 Jan | Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Instituto (A) | 0-1 | 0.34 | 0.58 | 1.02 | 3 | D |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manuel Lanzini | midfielder | 28 | 2061 | 2.80 | 6 | +3.20 | 0.12 |
| Ronaldo Martínez | attacker | 6 | 514 | 2.80 | 6 | +3.20 | 0.49 |
| Joaquín García | defender | 25 | 2158 | 0.51 | 2 | +1.49 | 0.02 |
| Florián Monzón | attacker | 15 | 1141 | 4.56 | 6 | +1.44 | 0.36 |
| Thiago Silvero | defender | 17 | 1364 | 0.80 | 2 | +1.20 | 0.05 |
| Thiago Aguirre | attacker | 10 | 353 | 0.12 | 1 | +0.88 | 0.03 |
| Jano Gordon | defender | 3 | 259 | 0.19 | 1 | +0.81 | 0.07 |
| Matías Pellegrini | attacker | 20 | 1464 | 2.84 | 3 | +0.16 | 0.17 |
| Lucas Robertone | midfielder | 27 | 1684 | 0.88 | 1 | +0.12 | 0.05 |
| Diego Valdés | midfielder | 22 | 1003 | 2.96 | 3 | +0.04 | 0.27 |
| Juan Cruz Policella | attacker | 7 | 367 | 1.26 | 1 | -0.26 | 0.31 |
| Tobías Andrada | midfielder | 16 | 1437 | 1.38 | 1 | -0.38 | 0.09 |
| Lisandro Magallán | defender | 24 | 2038 | 0.50 | 0 | -0.50 | 0.02 |
| Simón Valentín Escobar | left-back | 11 | 611 | 0.62 | 0 | -0.62 | 0.09 |
| Rodrigo Aliendro | midfielder | 29 | 1871 | 1.74 | 1 | -0.74 | 0.08 |
| Braian Romero | attacker | 10 | 293 | 2.31 | 1 | -1.31 | 0.71 |
| Dilan Godoy | attacker | 22 | 870 | 3.42 | 0 | -3.42 | 0.35 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vélez Sarsfield | 29 | 32.4 | 36 | 31.3 | 25 | 40.4 | 52 | +11.6 |
| 2 | Argentinos Juniors | 29 | 37.2 | 34 | 27 | 24 | 44.5 | 54 | +9.5 |
| 3 | Belgrano | 29 | 35.3 | 31 | 35.5 | 23 | 39.1 | 48 | +8.9 |
| 4 | Independiente Rivadavia | 29 | 40.2 | 46 | 31.2 | 36 | 45.2 | 53 | +7.8 |
| 5 | Gimnasia La Plata | 29 | 39.2 | 38 | 35.1 | 37 | 40.7 | 48 | +7.3 |
| 6 | Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza | 29 | 28.7 | 29 | 41 | 35 | 31.7 | 39 | +7.3 |
| 7 | Rosario Central | 29 | 42.2 | 40 | 31.9 | 27 | 45.8 | 53 | +7.2 |
| 8 | Sarmiento | 28 | 28.9 | 34 | 39.3 | 38 | 32.7 | 39 | +6.3 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 29 | 26.2 | 21 | 34.9 | 26 | 33.4 | 39 | +5.6 |
| 10 | Barracas Central | 28 | 22.9 | 25 | 30.1 | 24 | 33.7 | 39 | +5.3 |
| 11 | Independiente | 29 | 30.9 | 36 | 34.1 | 33 | 38.1 | 43 | +4.9 |
| 12 | Huracán | 29 | 32.1 | 29 | 33 | 25 | 39 | 41 | +2 |
| 13 | Estudiantes | 29 | 38.4 | 35 | 31.3 | 22 | 43.2 | 45 | +1.8 |
| 14 | Defensa y Justicia | 29 | 35.6 | 36 | 33.1 | 33 | 41.4 | 43 | +1.6 |
| 15 | Lanús | 29 | 37.7 | 34 | 30 | 24 | 45.9 | 47 | +1.1 |
| 16 | Boca Juniors | 29 | 41.7 | 43 | 21.7 | 23 | 53.2 | 54 | +0.8 |
| 17 | Newell's Old Boys | 28 | 26 | 26 | 37.1 | 36 | 32 | 32 | -0 |
| 18 | Instituto | 29 | 39.8 | 37 | 22.9 | 27 | 50.6 | 50 | -0.6 |
| 19 | Central Cordoba SdE | 28 | 26.2 | 21 | 42.4 | 37 | 27.7 | 26 | -1.7 |
| 20 | Banfield | 29 | 33.1 | 31 | 46.7 | 38 | 32.8 | 31 | -1.8 |
| 21 | Talleres Córdoba | 29 | 31.8 | 29 | 35.1 | 33 | 37.3 | 35 | -2.3 |
| 22 | River Plate | 29 | 48.3 | 40 | 22.8 | 25 | 54.5 | 49 | -5.5 |
| 23 | Unión Santa Fe | 28 | 37.3 | 41 | 34.5 | 41 | 40.8 | 34 | -6.8 |
| 24 | Racing Club | 29 | 35.8 | 31 | 35.1 | 35 | 40.2 | 33 | -7.2 |
| 25 | Platense | 29 | 31.2 | 22 | 33.8 | 34 | 37 | 27 | -10 |
| 26 | Atlético Tucumán | 29 | 31.1 | 27 | 31.9 | 33 | 38.1 | 28 | -10.1 |
| 27 | Tigre | 29 | 37.5 | 31 | 29.7 | 30 | 44.8 | 33 | -11.8 |
| 28 | Aldosivi | 29 | 26.3 | 20 | 41.8 | 41 | 29.5 | 16 | -13.5 |
| 29 | Deportivo Riestra | 28 | 24.3 | 14 | 26 | 24 | 36.2 | 22 | -14.2 |
| 30 | Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 29 | 24.8 | 13 | 42.8 | 41 | 29.1 | 14 | -15.1 |