No, Portsmouth have taken 26 points over their last 20 Championship games, within 1.79 of the 27.79 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Portsmouth create 1.34 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Championship games, 26.73 in all, and have scored 26 goals from those chances, 0.73 fewer than that xG would expect.
Portsmouth allow 1.32 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Championship games, 26.47 in all, and have conceded 32 goals from those chances, 5.53 more than that xGA would expect.
Adrian Segecic has the most expected goals (xG) for Portsmouth over their last 20 Championship games, 4.74 xG in 18 appearances, and has scored 7 goals; Marko Milovanović is next with 3.01 xG.
Portsmouth's results and their chances agree, within 1.8 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 26.73 | 26 | -0.73 | 26.47 | 32 | -5.53 | 27.79 | 26 | -1.79 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 15.21 | 13 | -2.21 | 13.91 | 14 | -0.09 | 14.62 | 12 | -2.62 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 8.02 | 7 | -1.02 | 6.05 | 5 | +1.05 | 8.05 | 8 | -0.05 |
| Home | 11 | 17.46 | 15 | -2.46 | 13.64 | 15 | -1.36 | 17.57 | 15 | -2.57 |
| Away | 9 | 9.27 | 11 | +1.73 | 12.83 | 17 | -4.17 | 10.22 | 11 | +0.78 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct | Championship | Sheff Utd (H) | 3-2 | 2.33 | 1.57 | 1.84 | 3 | W |
| 11 Oct | Championship | S'oton (A) | 1-0 | 1.37 | 0.93 | 1.69 | 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | Championship | Blackburn (H) | 2-2 | 1.97 | 0.88 | 2.10 | 1 | W |
| 12 Sep | Championship | Charlton (A) | 0-0 | 0.57 | 0.86 | 1.05 | 1 | L |
| 5 Sep | Championship | Cardiff (H) | 2-0 | 1.78 | 1.81 | 1.37 | 3 | L |
| 1 Sep | Championship | Derby (H) | 0-2 | 1.04 | 0.90 | 1.45 | 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | Championship | Bristol City (A) | 2-1 | 1.53 | 0.83 | 1.87 | 0 | W |
| 22 Aug | Championship | Lincoln (A) | 1-3 | 1.39 | 2.44 | 0.81 | 3 | L |
| 15 Aug | Championship | QPR (H) | 1-3 | 2.26 | 2.06 | 1.51 | 0 | W |
| 2 May | Championship | Birmingham (H) | 1-1 | 0.97 | 1.63 | 0.93 | 1 | L |
| 25 Apr | Championship | Stoke (A) | 1-3 | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.33 | 3 | L |
| 21 Apr | Championship | Coventry (A) | 5-1 | 0.09 | 2.47 | 0.12 | 0 | L |
| 18 Apr | Championship | Leicester (H) | 1-0 | 1.06 | 1.08 | 1.34 | 3 | L |
| 14 Apr | Championship | Ipswich (H) | 2-0 | 1.88 | 0.97 | 1.98 | 3 | W |
| 11 Apr | Championship | M'Boro (A) | 0-1 | 0.66 | 1.53 | 0.74 | 3 | L |
| 6 Apr | Championship | Oxford Utd (H) | 2-2 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 1.40 | 1 | W |
| 3 Apr | Championship | Norwich (A) | 1-1 | 0.47 | 0.54 | 1.20 | 1 | D |
| 21 Mar | Championship | QPR (A) | 6-1 | 1.49 | 1.43 | 1.41 | 0 | W |
| 16 Mar | Championship | Derby (H) | 0-1 | 2.18 | 1.29 | 1.93 | 0 | W |
| 10 Mar | Championship | Swansea (H) | 1-2 | 1.02 | 0.56 | 1.72 | 0 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Segecic | attacker | 18 | 1267 | 4.74 | 7 | +2.27 | 0.34 |
| Zak Swanson | defender | 12 | 797 | 0.49 | 2 | +1.51 | 0.06 |
| Conor Shaughnessy | defender | 15 | 942 | 1.24 | 2 | +0.76 | 0.12 |
| Andre Dozzell | midfielder | 8 | 655 | 0.29 | 1 | +0.71 | 0.04 |
| Keshi Anderson | attacker | 7 | 240 | 0.30 | 1 | +0.70 | 0.11 |
| Terry Devlin | defender | 16 | 1228 | 0.41 | 1 | +0.59 | 0.03 |
| Ibane Bowat | defender | 5 | 207 | 0.44 | 1 | +0.56 | 0.19 |
| Ebou Adams | midfielder | 14 | 737 | 1.46 | 2 | +0.54 | 0.18 |
| John Swift | midfielder | 7 | 279 | 0.78 | 1 | +0.22 | 0.25 |
| Conor Chaplin | attacker | 9 | 549 | 0.79 | 1 | +0.21 | 0.13 |
| Jacob Brown | attacker | 9 | 357 | 1.21 | 1 | -0.21 | 0.30 |
| Regan Poole | defender | 14 | 1048 | 0.78 | 0 | -0.78 | 0.07 |
| Ryan Kavuma-McQueen | attacker | 9 | 490 | 1.87 | 1 | -0.87 | 0.34 |
| Colby Bishop | attacker | 19 | 1250 | 2.92 | 2 | -0.92 | 0.21 |
| Marko Milovanović | attacker | 7 | 280 | 3.01 | 2 | -1.01 | 0.97 |
| Marlon Pack | midfielder | 17 | 1356 | 1.05 | 0 | -1.05 | 0.07 |
| Abu Kamara | attacker | 9 | 759 | 1.11 | 0 | -1.11 | 0.13 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City | 10 | 16 | 16 | 12.3 | 7 | 15.7 | 23 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Stoke City | 10 | 9.8 | 17 | 16.8 | 16 | 10.2 | 16 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 9.7 | 15 | 15.8 | 13 | 9.7 | 15 | +5.3 |
| 4 | Southampton | 10 | 17.8 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 15.6 | 20 | +4.4 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 14.5 | 10 | 12.7 | 17 | +4.3 |
| 6 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 11.1 | 10 | 16.1 | 13 | 11 | 14 | +3 |
| 7 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 18.5 | 20 | 11.1 | 14 | 18.3 | 21 | +2.7 |
| 8 | Sheffield United | 10 | 10.9 | 14 | 17.3 | 14 | 9.6 | 12 | +2.4 |
| 9 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 14.5 | 15 | 18.3 | 18 | 11.5 | 13 | +1.5 |
| 10 | Queens Park Rangers | 10 | 17.8 | 15 | 12.9 | 9 | 16.6 | 17 | +0.4 |
| 11 | Birmingham City | 10 | 18.1 | 17 | 12.6 | 11 | 17.2 | 17 | -0.2 |
| 12 | West Ham United | 10 | 24.6 | 29 | 12.9 | 12 | 19.3 | 19 | -0.3 |
| 13 | Bristol City | 10 | 13.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 14 | 14.7 | 14 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Watford | 10 | 11.2 | 8 | 19.3 | 19 | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| 15 | Millwall | 10 | 19.3 | 16 | 14.4 | 16 | 16.2 | 14 | -2.2 |
| 16 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 15.7 | 16 | 9.7 | 14 | 16.3 | 14 | -2.3 |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 9 | 14.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 13 | 13.7 | 11 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 10 | 12.2 | 11 | 11.9 | 15 | 14.2 | 11 | -3.2 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 10 | 15 | 17 | 17.7 | 20 | 12.5 | 9 | -3.5 |
| 20 | Lincoln City | 10 | 14.6 | 7 | 14.9 | 17 | 14.6 | 11 | -3.6 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 13.4 | 15 | 16.3 | 19 | 11.8 | 8 | -3.8 |
| 22 | Derby County | 10 | 11.1 | 9 | 19.1 | 19 | 10.1 | 6 | -4.1 |
| 23 | Cardiff City | 10 | 21.3 | 16 | 14.2 | 15 | 17.6 | 10 | -7.6 |
| 24 | Preston North End | 10 | 12 | 8 | 15.3 | 20 | 12.1 | 4 | -8.1 |