No, Mainz have taken 32 points over their last 20 Bundesliga games, within 1.17 of the 33.17 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Mainz create 2.01 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Bundesliga games, 40.24 in all, and have scored 36 goals from those chances, 4.24 fewer than that xG would expect.
Mainz allow 1.57 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Bundesliga games, 31.37 in all, and have conceded 31 goals from those chances, 0.37 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Phillip Tietz has the most expected goals (xG) for Mainz over their last 20 Bundesliga games, 8.64 xG in 20 appearances, and has scored 8 goals; Nadiem Amiri is next with 6.97 xG.
Mainz's results and their chances agree, within 1.2 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 40.24 | 36 | -4.24 | 31.37 | 31 | +0.37 | 33.17 | 32 | -1.17 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 23.60 | 22 | -1.60 | 17.14 | 19 | -1.86 | 17.79 | 14 | -3.79 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 11.93 | 13 | +1.07 | 8.28 | 10 | -1.72 | 9.11 | 7 | -2.11 |
| Home | 10 | 19.99 | 15 | -4.99 | 14.48 | 19 | -4.52 | 17.17 | 9 | -8.17 |
| Away | 10 | 20.25 | 21 | +0.75 | 16.89 | 12 | +4.89 | 16.00 | 23 | +7.00 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Bundesliga | Leverkusen (H) | 3-4 | 2.73 | 2.02 | 1.77 | 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | Bundesliga | Gladbach (A) | 3-4 | 2.81 | 3.13 | 1.26 | 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | Bundesliga | Frankfurt (H) | 1-3 | 2.54 | 1.91 | 1.74 | 0 | W |
| 6 Sep | Bundesliga | Hamburg (A) | 0-5 | 2.52 | 0.27 | 2.70 | 3 | W |
| 29 Aug | Bundesliga | Paderborn (H) | 0-0 | 1.33 | 0.95 | 1.64 | 1 | W |
| 16 May | Bundesliga | Heidenheim (A) | 0-2 | 3.15 | 2.18 | 1.88 | 3 | W |
| 10 May | Bundesliga | U Berlin (H) | 1-3 | 1.50 | 2.75 | 0.75 | 0 | L |
| 3 May | Bundesliga | St. Pauli (A) | 1-2 | 2.02 | 0.99 | 2.04 | 3 | W |
| 25 Apr | Bundesliga | Bayern (H) | 3-4 | 2.70 | 2.17 | 1.68 | 0 | W |
| 19 Apr | Bundesliga | Gladbach (A) | 1-1 | 2.30 | 0.77 | 2.33 | 1 | W |
| 12 Apr | Bundesliga | Freiburg (H) | 0-1 | 0.74 | 0.61 | 1.42 | 0 | D |
| 4 Apr | Bundesliga | Hoffenheim (A) | 1-2 | 1.67 | 1.43 | 1.54 | 3 | W |
| 22 Mar | Bundesliga | Frankfurt (H) | 2-1 | 1.43 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 3 | W |
| 15 Mar | Bundesliga | Bremen (A) | 0-2 | 1.49 | 1.33 | 1.48 | 3 | W |
| 7 Mar | Bundesliga | Stuttgart (H) | 2-2 | 2.91 | 1.17 | 2.33 | 1 | W |
| 28 Feb | Bundesliga | Leverkusen (A) | 1-1 | 0.88 | 2.28 | 0.57 | 1 | L |
| 20 Feb | Bundesliga | Hamburg (H) | 1-1 | 1.88 | 0.73 | 2.15 | 1 | W |
| 13 Feb | Bundesliga | Dortmund (A) | 4-0 | 1.41 | 2.59 | 0.76 | 0 | L |
| 7 Feb | Bundesliga | Augsburg (H) | 2-0 | 2.23 | 0.77 | 2.30 | 3 | W |
| 31 Jan | Bundesliga | RB Leipzig (A) | 1-2 | 2.00 | 1.92 | 1.44 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Nebel | midfielder | 15 | 982 | 3.01 | 4 | +0.99 | 0.28 |
| Anthony Caci | defender | 11 | 558 | 1.40 | 2 | +0.60 | 0.23 |
| Danny da Costa | defender | 20 | 1305 | 1.48 | 2 | +0.52 | 0.10 |
| Jae-sung Lee | midfielder | 16 | 1075 | 1.65 | 2 | +0.35 | 0.14 |
| Dominik Kohr | defender | 15 | 1166 | 0.68 | 1 | +0.32 | 0.05 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer | attacker | 5 | 122 | 0.69 | 1 | +0.31 | 0.51 |
| Silas | attacker | 6 | 274 | 0.81 | 1 | +0.19 | 0.27 |
| Sheraldo Becker | attacker | 19 | 1316 | 4.91 | 5 | +0.09 | 0.34 |
| Phillipp Mwene | defender | 20 | 1439 | 2.46 | 2 | -0.46 | 0.15 |
| Stefan Posch | defender | 19 | 1664 | 0.54 | 0 | -0.54 | 0.03 |
| Phillip Tietz | attacker | 20 | 1715 | 8.64 | 8 | -0.64 | 0.45 |
| Kaishu Sano | midfielder | 20 | 1789 | 0.73 | 0 | -0.73 | 0.04 |
| Nadiem Amiri | midfielder | 15 | 1217 | 6.97 | 6 | -0.97 | 0.52 |
| Nelson Weiper | attacker | 11 | 116 | 1.57 | 0 | -1.57 | 1.22 |
| Kacper Potulski | defender | 15 | 994 | 1.73 | 0 | -1.73 | 0.16 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 8.7 | 13 | 14.3 | 8 | 4.5 | 8 | +3.5 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 8.9 | 11 | 4.6 | 4 | 9.8 | 13 | +3.2 |
| 3 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 5.9 | 10 | 8.4 | 10 | 5.2 | 8 | +2.8 |
| 4 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 10.4 | 14 | 4.4 | 4 | 10.4 | 13 | +2.6 |
| 5 | Elversberg | 5 | 6.5 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4.7 | 7 | +2.3 |
| 6 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 4.8 | 5 | 9.7 | 15 | 4 | 6 | +2 |
| 7 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 6.1 | 4 | 10.4 | 6 | 4.5 | 5 | +0.5 |
| 8 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 12 | 14 | 6.3 | 8 | 10.1 | 10 | -0.1 |
| 9 | FC Köln | 5 | 9.5 | 8 | 9.7 | 10 | 7.1 | 7 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 9.7 | 8 | 10.4 | 9 | 6.3 | 6 | -0.3 |
| 12 | Paderborn | 5 | 5.1 | 3 | 8.3 | 7 | 4.7 | 4 | -0.7 |
| 13 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 12.2 | 15 | 5.8 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -1 |
| 14 | FC Bayern München | 5 | 15.1 | 16 | 4.2 | 4 | 12.3 | 11 | -1.3 |
| 15 | FC Union Berlin | 5 | 6.6 | 5 | 10.2 | 17 | 5.9 | 4 | -1.9 |
| 16 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 11.9 | 13 | 8.3 | 10 | 9.1 | 7 | -2.1 |
| 17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 8.6 | 7 | 14.2 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | -4.5 |
| 18 | TSG Hoffenheim | 5 | 9.2 | 9 | 8.1 | 13 | 7.7 | 3 | -4.7 |