No, Crawley have taken 17 points over their last 20 League Two games, 6.75 fewer than the 23.75 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Crawley create 1.38 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 League Two games, 27.50 in all, and have scored 19 goals from those chances, 8.50 fewer than that xG would expect.
Crawley allow 1.81 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 League Two games, 36.21 in all, and have conceded 29 goals from those chances, 7.21 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Danilo Orsi has the most expected goals (xG) for Crawley over their last 20 League Two games, 2.71 xG in 13 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Tobi Adeyemo is next with 2.41 xG.
Crawley have taken 6.8 points fewer than their chances warranted over 20 games: -8.5 goals against their xG, and +7.2 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 27.50 | 19 | -8.50 | 36.21 | 29 | +7.21 | 23.75 | 17 | -6.75 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 15.65 | 11 | -4.65 | 19.92 | 18 | +1.92 | 12.28 | 7 | -5.28 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 8.55 | 6 | -2.55 | 10.42 | 11 | -0.58 | 6.27 | 2 | -4.27 |
| Home | 10 | 11.93 | 8 | -3.93 | 18.99 | 13 | +5.99 | 10.13 | 8 | -2.13 |
| Away | 10 | 15.57 | 11 | -4.57 | 17.22 | 16 | +1.22 | 13.62 | 9 | -4.62 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League Two | Chesterfield (H) | 2-2 | 1.81 | 1.87 | 1.36 | 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | League Two | Grimsby (A) | 2-0 | 1.26 | 3.73 | 0.35 | 0 | L |
| 12 Sep | League Two | Cheltenham (H) | 1-3 | 1.66 | 2.11 | 1.13 | 0 | L |
| 5 Sep | League Two | Accrington (A) | 3-2 | 1.41 | 1.97 | 1.04 | 0 | L |
| 1 Sep | League Two | Northampton (A) | 1-1 | 2.41 | 0.74 | 2.39 | 1 | W |
| 29 Aug | League Two | Bristol Rovers (H) | 0-2 | 0.81 | 2.88 | 0.36 | 0 | L |
| 22 Aug | League Two | Rochdale (A) | 1-2 | 2.10 | 0.88 | 2.16 | 3 | W |
| 15 Aug | League Two | Crewe (H) | 0-1 | 1.14 | 2.41 | 0.68 | 0 | L |
| 2 May | League Two | Salford (H) | 0-0 | 0.77 | 2.75 | 0.37 | 1 | L |
| 25 Apr | League Two | Accrington (A) | 3-3 | 2.28 | 0.58 | 2.44 | 1 | W |
| 18 Apr | League Two | Shrewsbury (H) | 0-0 | 1.51 | 0.44 | 2.17 | 1 | W |
| 11 Apr | League Two | Bristol Rovers (A) | 3-1 | 2.10 | 2.07 | 1.41 | 0 | W |
| 6 Apr | League Two | Grimsby (H) | 0-2 | 0.65 | 1.69 | 0.65 | 0 | L |
| 3 Apr | League Two | Newport (A) | 0-2 | 1.29 | 0.94 | 1.62 | 3 | W |
| 28 Mar | League Two | Gillingham (H) | 2-0 | 0.74 | 1.10 | 1.05 | 3 | L |
| 21 Mar | League Two | Fleetwood (A) | 1-0 | 1.16 | 1.94 | 0.90 | 0 | L |
| 17 Mar | League Two | Barnet (H) | 1-1 | 1.90 | 1.16 | 1.86 | 1 | W |
| 13 Mar | League Two | Colchester (A) | 0-0 | 0.94 | 1.34 | 1.06 | 1 | L |
| 7 Mar | League Two | Swindon (H) | 2-2 | 0.94 | 2.58 | 0.50 | 1 | L |
| 28 Feb | League Two | Oldham (A) | 2-0 | 0.62 | 3.03 | 0.25 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Richards | midfielder | 11 | 627 | 0.99 | 2 | +1.01 | 0.14 |
| Pemi Aderoju | attacker | 7 | 352 | 1.23 | 2 | +0.77 | 0.32 |
| Gianmarco Di Biase | attacker | 6 | 132 | 1.47 | 2 | +0.53 | 1.00 |
| Kellan Gordon | midfielder | 11 | 759 | 0.64 | 1 | +0.36 | 0.08 |
| Harry McKirdy | attacker | 6 | 371 | 1.73 | 2 | +0.27 | 0.42 |
| Louie Watson | midfielder | 13 | 862 | 1.73 | 2 | +0.27 | 0.18 |
| Klaidi Lolos | attacker | 6 | 373 | 0.98 | 1 | +0.02 | 0.24 |
| Jay Williams | midfielder | 12 | 1024 | 1.02 | 1 | -0.02 | 0.09 |
| Dylan Morgan | midfielder | 6 | 403 | 1.27 | 1 | -0.27 | 0.28 |
| Harry Forster | midfielder | 11 | 661 | 1.54 | 1 | -0.54 | 0.21 |
| Ade Adeyemo | attacker | 17 | 1263 | 0.62 | 0 | -0.62 | 0.04 |
| Charlie Barker | - | 19 | 1696 | 0.67 | 0 | -0.67 | 0.04 |
| Scott Malone | defender | 11 | 919 | 0.70 | 0 | -0.70 | 0.07 |
| Danilo Orsi | attacker | 13 | 842 | 2.71 | 2 | -0.71 | 0.29 |
| Osman Kamara | attacker | 8 | 543 | 0.73 | 0 | -0.73 | 0.12 |
| J. Arthurs | midfielder | 8 | 720 | 1.20 | 0 | -1.20 | 0.15 |
| Dion Pereira | attacker | 16 | 881 | 2.36 | 1 | -1.36 | 0.24 |
| Tobi Adeyemo | attacker | 11 | 575 | 2.41 | 1 | -1.41 | 0.38 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barnet | 8 | 15.1 | 20 | 11.9 | 11 | 12.9 | 18 | +5.1 |
| 2 | Rochdale | 10 | 9.1 | 11 | 15.7 | 12 | 9.4 | 14 | +4.6 |
| 3 | Cheltenham Town | 10 | 11.5 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 10.5 | 15 | +4.5 |
| 4 | Crewe Alexandra | 10 | 13.2 | 12 | 12.8 | 7 | 13.8 | 18 | +4.2 |
| 5 | Salford City | 10 | 12.9 | 15 | 11.1 | 10 | 14.9 | 19 | +4.1 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 10 | 12.3 | 15 | 14.4 | 10 | 12.8 | 16 | +3.2 |
| 7 | Swindon Town | 10 | 9.9 | 9 | 18 | 14 | 9 | 11 | +2 |
| 8 | Walsall | 9 | 15.2 | 12 | 13.6 | 6 | 13.5 | 15 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 10 | 12 | 10 | 16.8 | 11 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Tranmere Rovers | 10 | 13.2 | 13 | 16 | 13 | 12.2 | 12 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Newport County | 10 | 12.3 | 13 | 12.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 13 | -1.1 |
| 12 | York City | 9 | 17.3 | 17 | 11.7 | 11 | 16.2 | 15 | -1.2 |
| 13 | Colchester United | 9 | 12.8 | 10 | 15.2 | 13 | 11.2 | 10 | -1.2 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 10 | 18.4 | 15 | 12.9 | 17 | 16.4 | 15 | -1.4 |
| 15 | Exeter City | 10 | 11.7 | 6 | 12.2 | 6 | 13.4 | 12 | -1.4 |
| 16 | Northampton Town | 8 | 6.1 | 4 | 8.7 | 7 | 9.2 | 7 | -2.2 |
| 17 | Shrewsbury Town | 10 | 11.7 | 9 | 11.2 | 15 | 14.1 | 11 | -3.1 |
| 18 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 15.4 | 13 | 14.9 | 14 | 14.4 | 11 | -3.4 |
| 19 | Grimsby Town | 10 | 18.2 | 13 | 13.1 | 11 | 17.2 | 13 | -4.2 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 8 | 10.7 | 4 | 7.7 | 9 | 12.4 | 8 | -4.4 |
| 21 | Crawley Town | 8 | 12.6 | 8 | 16.6 | 15 | 9.5 | 5 | -4.5 |
| 22 | Chesterfield | 10 | 22 | 17 | 12.2 | 14 | 19.6 | 15 | -4.6 |
| 23 | Rotherham United | 10 | 14.6 | 12 | 12.8 | 16 | 14.6 | 10 | -4.6 |
| 24 | Oldham Athletic | 9 | 12.5 | 9 | 11.5 | 13 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |