No, Bradford have taken 33 points over their last 20 League One games, within 1.67 of the 31.33 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Bradford create 1.22 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 League One games, 24.47 in all, and have scored 21 goals from those chances, 3.47 fewer than that xG would expect.
Bradford allow 0.89 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 League One games, 17.87 in all, and have conceded 17 goals from those chances, 0.87 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Bobby Pointon has the most expected goals (xG) for Bradford over their last 20 League One games, 4.45 xG in 16 appearances, and has scored 4 goals; Will Swan is next with 2.32 xG.
Bradford's results and their chances agree, within 1.7 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 24.47 | 21 | -3.47 | 17.87 | 17 | +0.87 | 31.33 | 33 | +1.67 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 11.05 | 10 | -1.05 | 8.96 | 6 | +2.96 | 14.71 | 20 | +5.29 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.10 | 4 | -0.10 | 3.27 | 1 | +2.27 | 7.35 | 11 | +3.65 |
| Home | 9 | 12.79 | 8 | -4.79 | 7.63 | 6 | +1.63 | 15.76 | 13 | -2.76 |
| Away | 11 | 11.68 | 13 | +1.32 | 10.24 | 11 | -0.76 | 15.57 | 20 | +4.43 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League One | Orient (H) | 0-0 | 1.19 | 0.26 | 2.13 | 1 | W |
| 3 Oct | League One | Reading (A) | 1-1 | 1.02 | 0.77 | 1.54 | 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | League One | Luton (A) | 0-1 | 0.30 | 1.16 | 0.61 | 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | League One | Notts County (A) | 0-1 | 0.64 | 0.55 | 1.38 | 3 | D |
| 5 Sep | League One | Mansfield (H) | 1-0 | 0.95 | 0.53 | 1.69 | 3 | W |
| 1 Sep | League One | Cambridge (H) | 1-2 | 2.79 | 0.58 | 2.60 | 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | League One | Plymouth (A) | 2-0 | 0.59 | 1.38 | 0.76 | 0 | L |
| 20 Aug | League One | Sheff Wed (A) | 0-1 | 0.53 | 1.66 | 0.58 | 3 | L |
| 15 Aug | League One | Peterborough (H) | 2-0 | 1.84 | 1.37 | 1.68 | 3 | W |
| 2 May | League One | Exeter City (A) | 1-2 | 1.20 | 0.70 | 1.74 | 3 | W |
| 25 Apr | League One | Bolton (H) | 1-1 | 1.09 | 1.28 | 1.22 | 1 | L |
| 21 Apr | League One | Plymouth (H) | 1-1 | 1.34 | 1.23 | 1.44 | 1 | W |
| 18 Apr | League One | Barnsley (A) | 2-2 | 1.81 | 1.14 | 1.82 | 1 | W |
| 11 Apr | League One | Stevenage (H) | 0-1 | 0.92 | 0.26 | 1.92 | 0 | W |
| 6 Apr | League One | Wycombe (A) | 1-2 | 1.70 | 1.23 | 1.69 | 3 | W |
| 3 Apr | League One | Northampton (H) | 1-0 | 1.70 | 1.05 | 1.82 | 3 | W |
| 21 Mar | League One | Burton (A) | 2-1 | 0.73 | 0.66 | 1.37 | 0 | D |
| 17 Mar | League One | Mansfield (H) | 1-1 | 0.97 | 1.07 | 1.26 | 1 | L |
| 14 Mar | League One | Wigan (A) | 2-0 | 0.80 | 0.59 | 1.50 | 0 | D |
| 11 Mar | League One | Port Vale (A) | 0-2 | 2.36 | 0.40 | 2.58 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreik Wright | midfielder | 4 | 360 | 0.73 | 3 | +2.27 | 0.18 |
| Kayden Jackson | attacker | 15 | 889 | 0.88 | 2 | +1.12 | 0.09 |
| Aden Baldwin | defender | 17 | 1524 | 0.89 | 2 | +1.11 | 0.05 |
| Nick Powell | midfielder | 15 | 343 | 0.90 | 2 | +1.10 | 0.24 |
| George Pratt | defender | 5 | 450 | 0.03 | 1 | +0.97 | 0.01 |
| Macaulay Gillesphey | defender | 7 | 352 | 0.16 | 1 | +0.84 | 0.04 |
| Antoni Sarcevic | midfielder | 18 | 1386 | 2.15 | 2 | -0.15 | 0.14 |
| Bobby Pointon | midfielder | 16 | 1100 | 4.45 | 4 | -0.45 | 0.36 |
| J. Wright | defender | 7 | 354 | 0.51 | 0 | -0.51 | 0.13 |
| Jake Beesley | attacker | 9 | 633 | 1.61 | 1 | -0.61 | 0.23 |
| Josh Neufville | midfielder | 17 | 1387 | 0.66 | 0 | -0.66 | 0.04 |
| Matthew Pennington | defender | 17 | 1292 | 0.66 | 0 | -0.66 | 0.05 |
| Stephen Humphrys | attacker | 10 | 653 | 1.72 | 1 | -0.72 | 0.24 |
| George Lapslie | midfielder | 6 | 366 | 0.81 | 0 | -0.81 | 0.20 |
| Jenson Metcalfe | midfielder | 11 | 813 | 1.29 | 0 | -1.29 | 0.14 |
| Will Swan | attacker | 13 | 440 | 2.32 | 1 | -1.32 | 0.47 |
| A. Phillips | midfielder | 8 | 415 | 1.58 | 0 | -1.58 | 0.34 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oxford United | 7 | 8.7 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 8.8 | 14 | +5.2 |
| 2 | Bradford City | 9 | 9.8 | 8 | 8.3 | 5 | 13 | 17 | +4 |
| 3 | Cambridge United | 9 | 12.7 | 14 | 13.1 | 11 | 12.4 | 16 | +3.6 |
| 4 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 7.7 | 13 | 15.7 | 11 | 7.4 | 11 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Plymouth Argyle | 10 | 16.9 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 15.5 | 19 | +3.5 |
| 6 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 9.6 | 7 | 14.1 | 10 | 9.5 | 12 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Burton Albion | 10 | 8.3 | 14 | 15.4 | 16 | 9.9 | 12 | +2.1 |
| 8 | Bromley | 8 | 7.7 | 9 | 16.9 | 20 | 6.1 | 8 | +1.9 |
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 8 | 10.4 | 12 | 12.6 | 14 | 9.9 | 11 | +1.1 |
| 10 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | 17.1 | 15 | 10.1 | 8 | 14.5 | 15 | +0.5 |
| 11 | Stockport County | 9 | 17.3 | 20 | 11.5 | 11 | 15.8 | 16 | +0.2 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 8 | 9.8 | 12 | 7.7 | 8 | 12.1 | 12 | -0.1 |
| 13 | Huddersfield Town | 9 | 18.9 | 16 | 9.3 | 9 | 17.7 | 16 | -1.7 |
| 14 | Wycombe Wanderers | 9 | 13.9 | 14 | 15.5 | 20 | 11.9 | 10 | -1.9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 8 | 15.5 | 13 | 17.2 | 14 | 10.1 | 8 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Reading | 9 | 18.4 | 22 | 9.8 | 11 | 17.4 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 17 | Doncaster Rovers | 8 | 11.3 | 9 | 9.8 | 9 | 11.7 | 9 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Luton Town | 8 | 13.9 | 16 | 9.6 | 15 | 13.9 | 11 | -2.9 |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | 12 | 8 | 12.7 | 15 | 11 | 8 | -3 |
| 20 | Peterborough United | 9 | 13.5 | 7 | 17.1 | 14 | 11.1 | 8 | -3.1 |
| 21 | Notts County | 8 | 9.4 | 8 | 10.6 | 11 | 10.1 | 7 | -3.1 |
| 22 | Leicester City | 8 | 13.3 | 10 | 11.6 | 14 | 12.2 | 9 | -3.2 |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | 12.3 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 10.7 | 6 | -4.7 |
| 24 | Wigan Athletic | 8 | 11.3 | 5 | 13.1 | 13 | 9.8 | 4 | -5.8 |