Yes, Atlético have taken 37 points over their last 20 La Liga games, 6.90 more than the 30.10 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Atlético create 1.62 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 La Liga games, 32.38 in all, and have scored 37 goals from those chances, 4.62 more than that xG would expect.
Atlético allow 1.46 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 La Liga games, 29.11 in all, and have conceded 29 goals from those chances, 0.11 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Ademola Lookman has the most expected goals (xG) for Atlético over their last 20 La Liga games, 4.80 xG in 16 appearances, and has scored 4 goals; Alexander Sørloth is next with 4.32 xG.
Atlético have taken 6.9 points more than their chances warranted over 20 games: +4.6 goals against their xG, and +0.1 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 32.38 | 37 | +4.62 | 29.11 | 29 | +0.11 | 30.10 | 37 | +6.90 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 17.56 | 20 | +2.44 | 13.34 | 13 | +0.34 | 16.50 | 22 | +5.50 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 10.75 | 11 | +0.25 | 3.56 | 5 | -1.44 | 10.93 | 12 | +1.07 |
| Home | 10 | 19.31 | 19 | -0.31 | 11.11 | 10 | +1.11 | 18.89 | 22 | +3.11 |
| Away | 10 | 13.07 | 18 | +4.93 | 18.00 | 19 | -1.00 | 11.21 | 15 | +3.79 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | La Liga | Alaves (A) | 1-2 | 2.05 | 1.16 | 1.95 | 3 | W |
| 20 Sep | La Liga | Real Madrid (H) | 2-1 | 2.41 | 0.33 | 2.64 | 3 | W |
| 16 Sep | La Liga | Osasuna (H) | 4-0 | 3.38 | 0.42 | 2.78 | 3 | W |
| 13 Sep | La Liga | Sociedad (A) | 0-3 | 1.98 | 0.41 | 2.44 | 3 | W |
| 5 Sep | La Liga | Athletic Club (A) | 3-0 | 0.93 | 1.24 | 1.12 | 0 | L |
| 29 Aug | La Liga | Sevilla (A) | 1-3 | 1.20 | 1.46 | 1.19 | 3 | L |
| 23 Aug | La Liga | Villarreal (H) | 2-2 | 1.14 | 3.16 | 0.44 | 1 | L |
| 19 Aug | La Liga | Málaga (H) | 2-0 | 0.97 | 0.35 | 1.88 | 3 | W |
| 24 May | La Liga | Villarreal (A) | 5-1 | 1.01 | 2.47 | 0.58 | 0 | L |
| 17 May | La Liga | Girona (H) | 1-0 | 2.49 | 2.34 | 1.48 | 3 | W |
| 12 May | La Liga | Osasuna (A) | 1-2 | 1.47 | 2.18 | 0.98 | 3 | L |
| 9 May | La Liga | Celta (H) | 0-1 | 2.37 | 0.16 | 2.72 | 0 | W |
| 2 May | La Liga | Valencia (A) | 0-2 | 1.50 | 1.67 | 1.28 | 3 | L |
| 25 Apr | La Liga | Athletic Club (H) | 3-2 | 1.57 | 0.73 | 1.98 | 3 | W |
| 22 Apr | La Liga | Elche (A) | 3-2 | 0.76 | 2.41 | 0.46 | 0 | L |
| 11 Apr | La Liga | Sevilla (A) | 2-1 | 0.85 | 2.18 | 0.59 | 0 | L |
| 4 Apr | La Liga | Barcelona (H) | 1-2 | 0.69 | 2.31 | 0.45 | 0 | L |
| 22 Mar | La Liga | Real Madrid (A) | 3-2 | 1.32 | 2.82 | 0.62 | 0 | L |
| 14 Mar | La Liga | Getafe (H) | 1-0 | 1.61 | 0.89 | 1.87 | 3 | W |
| 7 Mar | La Liga | Sociedad (H) | 3-2 | 2.68 | 0.42 | 2.65 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico González | attacker | 6 | 321 | 1.58 | 4 | +2.42 | 0.44 |
| Álex Baena | attacker | 17 | 1084 | 1.70 | 4 | +2.30 | 0.14 |
| Nahuel Molina | defender | 8 | 494 | 0.34 | 2 | +1.66 | 0.06 |
| Giuliano Simeone | attacker | 16 | 948 | 1.35 | 3 | +1.65 | 0.13 |
| Marc Pubill | defender | 14 | 1010 | 1.04 | 2 | +0.96 | 0.09 |
| Alejandro Grimaldo | defender | 7 | 625 | 2.15 | 3 | +0.85 | 0.31 |
| Javier Boñar | defender | 4 | 299 | 0.20 | 1 | +0.80 | 0.06 |
| Robin Le Normand | defender | 13 | 820 | 0.28 | 1 | +0.72 | 0.03 |
| Jonathan David | attacker | 4 | 206 | 2.33 | 3 | +0.67 | 1.02 |
| Kang-in Lee | midfielder | 8 | 502 | 1.50 | 2 | +0.50 | 0.27 |
| Cristian Romero | defender | 5 | 368 | 0.90 | 1 | +0.10 | 0.22 |
| Alexander Sørloth | attacker | 11 | 622 | 4.32 | 4 | -0.32 | 0.62 |
| Koke | midfielder | 18 | 1183 | 0.58 | 0 | -0.58 | 0.04 |
| Marcos Llorente | defender | 15 | 1027 | 0.70 | 0 | -0.70 | 0.06 |
| Rodrigo Mendoza | midfielder | 8 | 378 | 0.78 | 0 | -0.78 | 0.19 |
| Ademola Lookman | attacker | 16 | 925 | 4.80 | 4 | -0.80 | 0.47 |
| Dávid Hancko | defender | 14 | 1069 | 0.95 | 0 | -0.95 | 0.08 |
| Julián Alvarez | attacker | 7 | 278 | 1.39 | 0 | -1.39 | 0.45 |
| Antoine Griezmann | attacker | 11 | 611 | 2.40 | 1 | -1.40 | 0.35 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis | 8 | 14 | 14 | 12.9 | 9 | 11.9 | 19 | +7.1 |
| 2 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 9.4 | 12 | 14.4 | 15 | 8.3 | 13 | +4.7 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 8 | 14.1 | 18 | 8.5 | 8 | 14.4 | 19 | +4.6 |
| 4 | FC Barcelona | 8 | 27.9 | 34 | 7.1 | 7 | 19.7 | 24 | +4.3 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 10.3 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 10.6 | 14 | +3.4 |
| 6 | Real Madrid | 8 | 18 | 19 | 9.2 | 8 | 16 | 18 | +2 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés | 8 | 9.1 | 12 | 10.6 | 8 | 10.3 | 11 | +0.7 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 9.2 | 11 | 13.3 | 16 | 7.6 | 8 | +0.4 |
| 9 | Getafe | 8 | 6.8 | 4 | 11.8 | 10 | 7.9 | 8 | +0.1 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 8 | 10.6 | 13 | 17 | 23 | 8.7 | 8 | -0.7 |
| 11 | Levante | 7 | 9.1 | 11 | 14.5 | 15 | 6.8 | 6 | -0.8 |
| 12 | Deportivo La Coruña | 8 | 10.2 | 12 | 9.6 | 11 | 10.9 | 10 | -0.9 |
| 13 | Celta de Vigo | 8 | 7.3 | 8 | 9.6 | 6 | 9.4 | 8 | -1.4 |
| 14 | Osasuna | 8 | 9.8 | 8 | 12.2 | 18 | 10 | 8 | -2 |
| 15 | Athletic Club | 6 | 9.4 | 7 | 7.8 | 6 | 10.1 | 8 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Málaga | 8 | 7 | 4 | 14.2 | 13 | 7 | 4 | -3 |
| 17 | Valencia | 8 | 7.9 | 6 | 12.3 | 15 | 8.8 | 5 | -3.8 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 10.6 | 11 | 12.2 | 17 | 10.6 | 6 | -4.6 |
| 19 | Espanyol | 8 | 11.4 | 11 | 9.3 | 11 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |
| 20 | Villarreal | 8 | 17.1 | 13 | 10.5 | 13 | 14.4 | 8 | -6.4 |