The Statz NFL game simulator plays the New England Patriots at the Detroit Lions 10,000 times: Week 10 of the 2026 season, Sunday, November 15 at 9:30 AM ET at FC Bayern Munich Stadium. The Lions win 51% of the games and the projected score is Patriots 27, Lions 27, a total of 53.6 points.
The likeliest pairing of scores is the Patriots 21-27 and the Lions 21-27, 7.7% of games on its own. The Lions win by 7 or more 33% of the time and the Patriots 30%; 47% of games are decided by one score and 3.0% go to overtime.
At the market's DET −2.5 the Lions cover in 44% of simulations; at its total of 50.5 the game goes over 59% of the time.
Score bands: Patriots points down the side, Lions points across| NE / DET | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35+ |
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| 0–6 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
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| 7–13 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
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| 14–20 | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% |
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| 21–27 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 6.1% |
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| 28–34 | 0.4% | 1.6% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.5% |
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| 35+ | 0.3% | 1.3% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.1% |
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Winning margin| Margin | Patriots | Lions |
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| 1–6 | 18.3% | 18.7% |
| 7–12 | 13.4% | 14.1% |
| 13–18 | 8.8% | 9.6% |
| 19–24 | 4.8% | 5.4% |
| 25–30 | 2.1% | 2.5% |
| 31+ | 1.1% | 1.3% |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Patriots vs Lions?
The Statz NFL game simulator makes the Detroit Lions 51% favourites: they win 51 of every 100 simulations of this game, the New England Patriots 49.
What is the predicted score for Patriots vs Lions?
The projected score is New England Patriots 27, Detroit Lions 27, a total of 53.6 points. The likeliest score range is the Patriots 21-27 and the Lions 21-27.
Will the Lions cover the spread against the Patriots?
At DET −2.5, the Lions cover in 44% of simulations and the Patriots in 56%.
Will Patriots vs Lions go over 50.5 points?
The simulator has the game over 50.5 points in 59% of games and under in 41%, around a projected total of 53.6.
How many points will the Patriots score against the Lions?
The New England Patriots are projected to score 27 points, and they score 20 or more in 77% of simulations.
How many points will the Lions score against the Patriots?
The Detroit Lions are projected to score 27 points, and they score 20 or more in 79% of simulations.
Will Patriots vs Lions go to overtime?
3.0% of the simulations are level after 60 minutes and go to overtime.
Will Patriots vs Lions be a close game?
47% of the simulations are decided by one score (8 points or fewer), and 20% by a field goal or less.
How does the Statz NFL game simulator work?
It plays the game 10,000 times from the Statz projection model's spread and total for it, and counts the results: the winner, the score, the margin and every line. Each run is drawn fresh, and the model's figures are what the runs settle on.
Is the NFL game simulator free?
Yes. Every game of the week can be simulated free, with no account needed.