Our model makes the Rams 68% favourites with a projected score of Rams 27, Cardinals 20. The market spread is Rams -9.5 for Sunday's NFC West game at State Farm Stadium.
The Los Angeles Rams (5-4, 3rd in the NFC West) visit the Arizona Cardinals (3-6, 4th in the NFC West) on Sunday 15 November, with kickoff at 4:05 PM ET at State Farm Stadium. Our model makes the Rams the favourite with a 68% win chance and a projected score of Rams 27, Cardinals 20. The market has the Rams at -9.5 on the spread.
How the teams arrive
The Rams are 3-2 in the last five. They won 20-13 at the Commanders on 8 November, 24-9 at home to the Chargers on 1 November and 35-21 at the Raiders on 25 October. Before that they lost 16-18 at home to the Cardinals on 18 October and 34-37 at home to the Bills on 13 October. The offence scores 23.8 points a game (13th of 32) and gains 390.6 yards a game (5th of 32), with 265.2 passing yards (7th of 32) and 125.3 rushing yards (9th of 32). The defence allows 20.1 points a game (8th of 32) and 312.9 yards a game (5th of 32). The weak spot is a turnover margin of -4, 25th of 32.
The Cardinals are 2-3 in the last five. They lost 3-17 at the Seahawks on 8 November after winning 33-30 at the Cowboys on 1 November. A 16-30 home loss to the Broncos on 25 October followed an 18-16 win at the Rams on 18 October, and they lost 21-45 at home to the Lions on 11 October. Arizona scores 19.8 points a game (26th of 32) and gains 333.8 yards a game (22nd of 32), with 231.1 passing yards (20th of 32) and 102.7 rushing yards (22nd of 32). The defence gives up 28.3 points a game, 31st of 32, and 352.6 yards a game, 19th of 32.
Injuries and starters
The Rams have three tight ends listed as questionable: Davis Allen (oblique), Colby Parkinson (ribs) and Tyler Higbee (not injury related - resting player). Wide receivers Puka Nacua (knee) and Davante Adams (not injury related - resting player) are on injured reserve, as is quarterback Matthew Caldwell.
For the Cardinals, running back Bam Knight (concussion) and defensive end Darius Robinson (wrist) are questionable. Quarterback Gardner Minshew II (elbow) is on injured reserve, along with wide receivers Michael Wilson (not injury related - resting player) and Kendrick Bourne (tibia) and running back Jeremiyah Love (ankle).
Matthew Stafford is the projected starting quarterback for the Rams, with Kyren Williams at running back, Konata Mumpfield at WR1, Higbee at tight end, Warren McClendon Jr. at tackle and Jared Verse on the edge. The Cardinals are without Minshew, who heads their depth chart at quarterback, and Wilson, who heads it at WR1. Tyler Allgeier is the projected starter at running back, Trey McBride at tight end, Elijah Wilkinson at tackle and Robinson on the edge.
Where the game is won
All four unit battles favour the Rams. Their pass offence gains 265.2 yards a game (7th of 32) against an Arizona pass defence that allows 230.7 (13th of 32). On the ground, the Rams run for 125.3 yards a game (9th of 32) against a Cardinals rush defence that gives up 121.9 (20th of 32).
The other way, the Arizona pass offence manages 231.1 yards a game (20th of 32) into a Rams pass defence that allows 209.1, 4th of 32. The Cardinals run for 102.7 yards a game (22nd of 32) against a Rams rush defence that allows 103.8 (13th of 32).
Over the last 9 games, the Cardinals defence has given up the 3rd most pass TDs to QBs, at 2.1 TD a game. It also gives up the t-3rd most rush TDs to QBs (0.3 TD a game) and the t-4th most receiving TDs to WRs (1.2 TD a game). The Rams defence has given up the most field goals in that window, at 2.6 FG a game, along with the 2nd most receiving yards to RBs (45 yds a game) and the 4th most rush yards to QBs (23.9 yds a game).
Players to watch
Matthew Stafford has thrown for 2374 yards in 9 games, 263.8 a game. His passing yards line is 212.5 at bet365, with 1.86 on the over and 1.86 on the under.
Blake Corum has 447 rushing yards in 9 games, 49.7 a game, and has 5 games in a row with 1+ Anytime TD. His rushing yards line is 58.5 at bet365, at 1.86 either way.
Kyren Williams leads the Rams backs with 593 rushing yards in 9 games, 65.9 a game. Mumpfield, the projected WR1, has a receiving yards line of 28.5 at bet365, at 1.86 on both sides.
Trey McBride has 598 receiving yards in 9 games, 66.4 a game, and has 11 games in a row with 5+ Receptions. His receiving yards line is 59.5 at bet365, with 1.86 on the over and the under.
Tyler Allgeier has 369 rushing yards in 9 games, 41 a game. His rushing yards line is 36.5 at bet365, at 1.86 either way.
Rams vs Cardinals odds
- Moneyline: Rams 1.24, Cardinals 5.13 (Kalshi)
- Spread: Rams -9.5 at 1.9, Cardinals +9.5 at 1.91 (bet365)
- Total: 39.5, over 1.9, under 1.9 (bet365)
Rams vs Cardinals prediction
Our model projects Rams 27, Cardinals 20, and gives the Rams a 68% win chance against 32% for the Cardinals. Our line is Rams -6.3 against the market's Rams -9.5, and our total is 47 against the market's 39.5.
The Statz model gives LAR -9.5 a 41% chance to cover, which points the spread lean to Cardinals +9.5. It gives Over 39.5 a 72% chance, and the total lean is Over 38.5. It rates a one-score game at 43% and LAR by 14+ at 30%. In the head-to-head, LAR have taken 4 of the last 6, and the Cardinals won the last meeting 18-16 on 18 October.
Statz prediction: Rams 27-20
Lines can move before kickoff, so check the latest prices.