Our model makes the Lions 51% favourites over the Patriots, with a projected score of 27-26. The market has Detroit at -2.5 with a total of 49.5.
The New England Patriots (5-4, 2nd in the AFC East) face the Detroit Lions (6-2, 2nd in the NFC North) on Sunday 15 November at 9:30 AM ET at FC Bayern Munich Stadium. Our model makes the Lions the narrowest of favourites, with a 51% win chance and a projected score of Lions 27, Patriots 26. The market has Lions -2.5, priced at 1.83 at bet365.
How the teams arrive
The Patriots are 3-2 in the last five. The latest was a 27-45 home loss in the Packers game on 8 November, a week after a 24-19 road win in the Dolphins game. Before that, New England lost 24-30 to the Bears and beat the Jets 26-19 and the Raiders 45-17. The offence scores 23.4 points a game (14th of 32) and gains 380.9 yards a game (9th of 32), and it converts 40.4% on third down (11th of 32). The weak spot is the ball: a turnover margin of -11 ranks 31st of 32. The defence allows 23 points a game (15th of 32) and 347.3 yards a game (16th of 32).
The Lions are 4-1 in the last five. The one loss was 26-32 at the Panthers on 5 October. Since then Detroit beat the Cardinals 45-21, the Packers 20-17 and the Vikings 19-15, then won 19-9 in the Dolphins game on 8 November. The offence is among the best in the league: 27.8 points a game (5th of 32), 395.9 yards a game (3rd of 32) and a turnover margin of +3 (10th of 32). Third down is softer at 37.2% (21st of 32). The defence allows 23.6 points a game (17th of 32) and 377.3 yards a game, 28th of 32.
Injuries and starters
Detroit list Amon-Ra St. Brown (rib), Sione Vaki (ankle) and Penei Sewell as questionable. Cade Mays (ankle), D.J. Reed (hip) and Mason Miller are out.
New England list Hunter Henry (foot), Rhamondre Stevenson (knee) and A.J. Brown (ankle) as questionable. Ben Brown (knee) and Carlton Davis III (knee) are out, and Romeo Doubs is on injured reserve with a shoulder injury.
Drake Maye and Jared Goff are the projected starting quarterbacks. The Patriots' depth chart has Stevenson at running back, A.J. Brown at WR1, Henry at tight end, Matt Pryor at tackle and Dre'Mont Jones on the edge. The Lions have Jahmyr Gibbs at running back, Jameson Williams at WR1, Sam LaPorta at tight end, Sewell at tackle and Aidan Hutchinson on the edge.
Where the game is won
The one clear New England edge is through the air. The Patriots throw for 261 yards a game (9th of 32), and Detroit's pass defence gives up 283.1 a game, 32nd of 32. Over the last 9 games the Lions have allowed the most pass yards to quarterbacks, 276.5 a game, and the most pass touchdowns to quarterbacks, 2.3 a game. They have also allowed the most receiving yards to tight ends, 88 a game.
The other three matchups favour Detroit. The Lions' rush defence allows 94.1 yards a game (8th of 32) against a Patriots ground game gaining 119.9 (10th of 32). Detroit's pass offence, at 268.1 a game and 5th of 32, meets a New England pass defence allowing 250.7, 26th of 32. The Lions run for 127.8 a game (8th of 32) into a Patriots run defence allowing 96.7 (9th of 32).
Wide receivers are the Patriots' problem position. Over the last 9 games New England have given up the 3rd most receiving touchdowns to receivers, 1.3 a game, and the 4th most receiving yards, 175.2 a game. They are tied 5th for most receptions allowed to the position, at 12.9 a game.
Players to watch
Drake Maye averages 253.6 passing yards a game across 9 games. He has 6 games in a row with 2+ passing touchdowns. His passing yards line is 262.5, at 1.86 on both sides at bet365.
Hunter Henry averages 40.1 receiving yards a game, against a defence that allows the most receiving yards to tight ends. He is questionable with a foot injury. His receptions line is 3.5, with the over at 2.05 and the under at 1.74 at bet365.
DeMario Douglas has 48.2 receiving yards a game over 9 games and faces a Lions pass defence ranked 32nd of 32.
Jahmyr Gibbs runs for 105.9 yards a game across 8 games, and he has 4 games in a row with 60+ rush yards. His receiving yards line is 33.5, at 1.86 either way at bet365.
Amon-Ra St. Brown averages 82.1 receiving yards a game and has 5 games in a row with 5+ receptions. He is questionable with a rib injury. His receiving yards line is 80.5, at 1.86 on both sides at bet365.
Jameson Williams adds 58.5 receiving yards a game. His receiving yards line is 54.5, at 1.86 either way at bet365.
Patriots vs Lions odds
- Moneyline: Patriots 2.41, Lions 1.74 (Kalshi)
- Spread: Patriots +2.5 at 2.00, Lions -2.5 at 1.83 (bet365)
- Total: 49.5, over 1.87, under 1.94 (bet365)
Patriots vs Lions prediction
Our model projects Lions 27, Patriots 26. It gives Detroit a 51% win chance and New England 49%. Our line is Lions -0.5 against the market's Lions -2.5, and our total is 53.6 against a market total of 49.5.
The Statz model gives DET -2.5 a 44% chance to cover. It puts a one-score game at 47% and a Lions win by 14+ at 17%. On the spread it leans Patriots +3.0. On the total it leans Over 49.5, which it gives a 62% chance.
Statz prediction: Lions 27-26
Lines can move before kickoff.