Our model makes the Panthers 51% favourites at the Caesars Superdome, projecting a 25-24 win. The market has the Saints as 2.5-point favourites, and our spread lean is Panthers +2.5.
The Carolina Panthers (3-5, 1st in the NFC South) visit the New Orleans Saints (3-5, 2nd in the NFC South) on Sunday 15 November at 1:00 PM ET at the Caesars Superdome. Our model makes the Panthers a narrow favourite, giving them a 51% win chance against 49% for the Saints, with a projected score of Panthers 25, Saints 24. The market has it the other way: the Saints are 2.5-point favourites at bet365, and our model leans Panthers +2.5.
How the teams arrive
The Panthers are 2-3 in their last five. They lost the Broncos game 21-26 at home on 8 November, after falling 19-27 on the road in the Packers game and 13-43 at home in the Buccaneers game. Before that they won 25-14 at the Eagles and 32-26 at home to the Lions. Carolina score 24.9 points a game (11th of 32) and gain 381.8 yards a game (8th of 32), built on 280.5 passing yards a game (4th of 32). The run game sits 23rd of 32 at 101.3 yards a game, and the third-down rate is 37.7% (19th of 32). The defence allows 27.4 points a game (29th of 32) and 355.1 yards a game (20th of 32). See the Panthers stats.
The Saints are also 2-3 in their last five. They edged the Browns 23-22 at home on 8 November in the Browns game, after a 10-16 home loss to the Steelers. They won 34-27 at the Giants, then lost 13-23 to the Vikings and 24-45 to the Falcons, both at home. New Orleans score 23.1 points a game (15th of 32) and gain 343.5 yards a game (16th of 32), with 248.3 passing yards a game (13th of 32) and 95.3 rushing yards a game (26th of 32). They convert 43.5% on third down, 7th of 32. The defence gives up 27 points a game (27th of 32) and 389.5 yards a game (30th of 32), and the turnover margin of -6 ranks 28th of 32.
Injuries and starters
Saints defensive tackles Keeshawn Silver and Zxavian Harris are out. Offensive tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. is questionable with an ankle injury, running back CJ Donaldson is questionable with a shoulder injury, and quarterback Taysom Hill and wide receiver Jordyn Tyson are both questionable.
For Carolina, linebacker Bobby Okereke is questionable with a foot injury.
Bryce Young is the projected starting quarterback for the Panthers, with Trevor Etienne at running back, Jimmy Horn Jr. as the lead receiver, Tommy Tremble at tight end, Monroe Freeling at tackle and LaBryan Ray on the edge. Tyler Shough is projected to start at quarterback for the Saints, with Alvin Kamara at running back, Tyson as the lead receiver, Juwan Johnson at tight end, Banks at tackle and Cameron Jordan on the edge.
Where the game is won
The Panthers throw for 280.5 yards a game (4th of 32), and the Saints pass defence allows 255.6 a game (28th of 32). Over the last 8 games New Orleans have given up the 5th most pass yards to quarterbacks, at 255.6 yards a game.
The run game edge also goes to Carolina. The Panthers run for 101.3 yards a game (23rd of 32), but the Saints run defence allows 133.9 a game (29th of 32). Over the last 8 games New Orleans have given up the 3rd most rush yards to running backs, 113.4 yards a game, and are tied for the most rush touchdowns to running backs, at 1.4 a game.
New Orleans pass for 248.3 yards a game (13th of 32) into a Panthers pass defence that allows 221.8 a game (8th of 32). Carolina have still given up the 7th most targets to wide receivers over the last 8 games.
The one Saints edge is on the ground. New Orleans run for 95.3 yards a game (26th of 32), but the Panthers run defence allows 133.4 a game (28th of 32). Carolina have given up the 6th most rush yards to running backs over the last 8 games, 110.5 yards a game.
The head-to-head leans New Orleans. The Saints lead the recent series 5-1 and are unbeaten at home in it, and 3 of the 6 meetings landed inside a score. The Week 15 2025 meeting went to the Saints 20-17.
Players to watch
Panthers
Bryce Young has 2197 passing yards in 8 games, 274.6 a game. His passing yards line at bet365 is 253.5, with 1.86 on both the over and the under.
Chuba Hubbard has 619 rushing yards in 8 games, 77.4 a game. His rushing yards line is 75.5 at bet365, 1.86 either way.
Tetairoa McMillan leads Carolina with 625 receiving yards in 8 games, 78.1 a game. His receptions line is 5.5 at bet365, with the over at 2.1 and the under at 1.71.
Saints
Tyler Shough has 1986 passing yards in 8 games, 248.3 a game. His passing yards line is 254.5 at bet365, 1.86 either way.
Chris Olave has 734 receiving yards in 8 games, 91.8 a game. His receiving yards line at bet365 is 74.5, with 1.86 on the over and the under.
Carl Granderson has recorded 1+ sacks in 4 games in a row, and Chase Young has 1+ sacks in 3 games in a row.
Panthers vs Saints odds
- Moneyline: Panthers 2.25, Saints 1.8 (Kalshi)
- Spread: Panthers +2.5 at 1.9, Saints -2.5 at 1.9 (bet365)
- Total: 48.5, over 1.9, under 1.91 (bet365)
Panthers vs Saints prediction
Our model projects a 25-24 Panthers win and gives Carolina a 51% win chance against 49% for New Orleans. Our line is Panthers -0.5 against the market's Saints -2.5, and our total of 48.8 sits next to the market's 48.5.
Our model gives the Saints only a 41% chance to cover -2.5, so the spread lean is Panthers +2.5. It puts the over 48.5 at 51% and a one-score game at 47%.
Statz prediction: Panthers 25-24
Lines move before kickoff.