Our model makes the Jaguars 79% favourites and projects a 27-16 win over the Titans. The market has Jacksonville -10.5 on the spread.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2, 1st in the AFC South) visit the Tennessee Titans (1-7, 4th in the AFC South) on Sunday 15 November, with kickoff at 1:00 PM ET at Nissan Stadium. Our model makes the Jaguars the favourite with a 79% win chance and projects a 27-16 Jacksonville win. The market has the Jaguars at -10.5 on the spread.
How the teams arrive
The Jaguars are 4-1 in the last five. They won 33-10 away to the Ravens in the Ravens game on 6 November, after a 42-7 home win in the Colts game. The only loss in that run was 31-34 at home to the Texans. Jacksonville score 28.6 points a game, 4th of 32, and allow 15.1, 2nd of 32. They convert 46.4% on third down, 3rd of 32, and their turnover margin of +9 is 1st of 32. They gain 359.6 yards a game, 12th of 32.
The Titans are 1-4 in the last five. Their last outing was a 36-43 loss away to the Bengals in the Bengals game, and before that they fell 24-27 at home to the Browns. Their win in that stretch came 26-20 away to the Colts. Tennessee score 18 points a game, 28th of 32, and gain 284.9 yards a game, 30th of 32. The defence allows 24.9 points a game, 23rd of 32, and 396.9 yards, 31st of 32. Their turnover margin is -1, 20th of 32, and they convert 36.2% on third down, 24th of 32.
Injuries and starters
Jacksonville list three players as Questionable: wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (ankle) and running backs Chris Rodriguez Jr. (hand) and Bhayshul Tuten (ankle). Safety Cam'Ron Silmon-Craig is Out (inactive), as are tackle Cooper Hodges and linebacker Jamal Hill.
Tennessee have running backs Tyjae Spears (knee) and Tony Pollard (finger), wide receiver Carnell Tate (shoulder) and safety Kevin Winston Jr. (shoulder) as Questionable. Defensive tackle Jordan Elliott and guard Drew Moss are Out.
Trevor Lawrence is the projected starter at quarterback for the Jaguars, with Ameer Abdullah at running back, Meyers at WR1, Brenton Strange at tight end, Cole Van Lanen at tackle and Josh Hines-Allen on the edge. Cam Ward is the projected quarterback for the Titans, with Pollard at running back, Calvin Ridley at WR1, Gunnar Helm at tight end, JC Latham at tackle and Jermaine Johnson II on the edge.
Where the game is won
Every unit matchup leans to Jacksonville. The Jaguars pass offence averages 242.5 yards a game, 16th of 32, against a Titans pass defence that allows 272.8, 31st of 32. On the ground, Jacksonville run for 117.1 yards a game, 13th of 32, into a Tennessee rush defence that gives up 124.1, 22nd of 32.
The Titans have a harder path. Their pass offence averages 185.4 yards a game, 29th of 32, against a Jaguars pass defence allowing 238.4, 18th of 32. Their run game, at 99.5 yards a game and 24th of 32, meets a Jacksonville rush defence that allows 89.3, 5th of 32.
Over the last 8 games, the Titans have given up the most receiving yards to wide receivers, at 194.9 a game, and the most receptions to wide receivers, at 15.3 a game. They are also tied for the most rush touchdowns allowed to quarterbacks, at 0.4 a game. The Jaguars defence gives up the 5th most receiving yards to wide receivers, at 174.5 a game, and the 7th most receptions to running backs, at 5 a game.
Players to watch
Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence has 1932 passing yards in 8 games, 241.5 a game. His rush attempts line is 3.5, with the over at 2.2 and the under at 1.66 at bet365.
Parker Washington leads the Jaguars with 493 receiving yards, 61.6 a game. He faces the defence that gives up the most receiving yards to wide receivers.
Bhayshul Tuten has 521 rushing yards, 65.1 a game, and has scored in 3 games in a row. He is listed as Questionable.
Titans
Tony Pollard has 595 rushing yards, 74.4 a game, and has 3 games in a row with 60+ rush yards. His rush attempts line is 14.5, over 1.8 and under 1.95 at bet365.
Cam Ward has 1483 passing yards, 185.4 a game. His passing yards line is 193.5, with both sides at 1.86 at bet365.
Carnell Tate has 413 receiving yards in 7 games, 59 a game. His receiving yards line is 57.5, both sides at 1.86 at bet365.
Jaguars vs Titans odds
- Moneyline: Jaguars 1.2, Titans 6.06 (Kalshi)
- Spread: Jaguars -10.5 at 1.9, Titans +10.5 at 1.91 (bet365)
- Total: 46.5, over 1.94, under 1.87 (bet365)
Jaguars vs Titans prediction
Our model projects a 27-16 Jaguars win. It gives Jacksonville a 79% win chance and Tennessee 21%. Our line is Jaguars -11.1 against the market's -10.5, and our model gives JAX -10.5 a 52% chance to cover. Our total is 43.4 against the market's 46.5, so the lean is Under 46.5, with the Over 46.5 given a 41% chance.
Our model rates a one-score game at 35% and a Jaguars win by 14+ at 43%. The Jaguars have taken 5 of the last 6 meetings, including 41-7 in Week 18 2025 and 25-3 in Week 13 2025, with an average total of 36.8.
Statz prediction: Jaguars 27-16
Lines move before kickoff, so check the prices on the day.