Our model makes the San Francisco 49ers the favourite at the Dallas Cowboys, with a 64% win chance and a 29-25 projected score. The market has the 49ers at -4 with a total of 56.
The San Francisco 49ers (7-1, 1st in the NFC West) visit the Dallas Cowboys (4-5, 2nd in the NFC East) on Sunday 15 November at 4:25 PM ET at AT&T Stadium. Our model makes the 49ers the favourite, with a 64% win chance and a projected score of 29-25. The market has the 49ers at -4 on the spread.
How the teams arrive
The 49ers are 4-1 in the last five. They beat the Raiders 38-17 at home on 8 November, after a 20-29 loss at the Falcons. Before that came wins over the Commanders (23-17), the Seahawks (32-29) and the Broncos (24-14). San Francisco score 29.4 points a game, 3rd of 32, and gain 382.8 yards a game, 7th of 32. They convert 51.7% on third down, 2nd of 32. The defence is the headline: 19.5 points allowed a game ranks 6th of 32, and 303.8 yards allowed a game ranks 2nd of 32. Turnover margin is +1, 13th of 32.
The Cowboys are 2-3 in the last five. They won 27-23 at the Colts on 8 November after a 30-33 home loss to the Cardinals. A 38-21 win at the Eagles sits between losses to the Packers (13-23) and the Buccaneers (16-24). Dallas score 27.3 points a game, 6th of 32, and throw for 264.6 yards a game, 8th of 32. Third-down conversion is 45.3%, 5th of 32. The Cowboys allow 26.2 points a game, 26th of 32, and 384.4 yards a game, 29th of 32. Their turnover margin is -1, 21st of 32.
Injuries and starters
Dallas carry the longer list. Running back Tyler Goodson (ankle) is Out. Tight end Jake Ferguson (knee) is Out, and he heads the depth chart at the position. Safety P.J. Locke (concussion) and cornerback Josh Butler are also Out. Wide receivers George Pickens (hamstring) and Jonathan Mingo (ankle) are Questionable.
For San Francisco, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (personal) is Out, along with defensive tackle Naquan Jones and defensive end Mykel Williams. Wide receivers Mike Evans (achilles) and Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring) are Questionable. Tackle Trent Williams is Questionable for a reason listed as not injury related, a resting player.
The projected quarterbacks are Brock Purdy for the 49ers and Dak Prescott for the Cowboys. Christian McCaffrey leads the San Francisco backfield, with Keenan Allen at WR1, George Kittle at tight end, Colton McKivitz at tackle and Bryce Huff on the edge. Dallas list Javonte Williams at running back, Pickens at WR1, Tyler Guyton at tackle and Elijah Garcia on the edge.
Where the game is won
The ground game is where San Francisco hold the clearest edge. The 49ers run for 135.3 yards a game, 7th of 32, against a Dallas rush defence that allows 147.4 a game, 31st of 32. Over the last 8 games the Cowboys have given up the 4th most rush yards to running backs, 112.8 a game. They also allow the 3rd most rush yards to quarterbacks, 26.9 yards a game.
Through the air, the 49ers pass offence (247.5 a game, 14th of 32) meets a Dallas pass defence giving up 237 a game, 16th of 32. That edge also goes to San Francisco.
The Cowboys' best route is the pass. Their offence throws for 264.6 a game, 8th of 32, against a 49ers pass defence allowing 222.9 a game, 9th of 32, the one unit edge Dallas hold. On the ground it is the reverse: Dallas run for 103.6 a game, 21st of 32, into a San Francisco rush defence that allows 80.9 a game, 2nd of 32.
One soft spot for the 49ers defence is backs catching the ball. Over the last 8 games San Francisco have allowed the most receptions to running backs, 6.8 a game, the 2nd most targets at 7.8 a game and the 4th most receiving yards at 43.6 a game.
The head-to-head is SF 4-1 over the last five meetings, most recently a 30-24 49ers win in Week 8 2024.
Players to watch
San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey has 457 rushing yards in 8 games, 57.1 a game. He has scored in 7 games in a row. His receiving yards line is 35.5 at 1.86 either way with bet365.
Brock Purdy has thrown for 1980 yards in 8 games, 247.5 a game. His passing yards line is 265.5, at 1.86 on both sides with bet365.
George Kittle has 483 receiving yards in 8 games, 60.4 a game. His receiving yards line is 62.5 at 1.86 for the over and the under.
Mike Evans has 420 receiving yards in 6 games, 70 a game, and has 3 games in a row with 60+ receiving yards. He is Questionable with an achilles injury.
Dallas Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb leads Dallas with 904 receiving yards in 9 games, 100.4 a game. He has 4 games in a row with 5+ receptions. His receptions line is 7.5, with the over at 2.05 and the under at 1.74.
Dak Prescott has 2381 passing yards in 9 games, 264.6 a game.
Javonte Williams has 629 rushing yards in 9 games, 69.9 a game. His rush attempts line is 16.5, with the over at 1.83 and the under at 1.9.
49ers vs Cowboys odds
- Moneyline: 49ers 1.53, Cowboys 2.9 (Kalshi)
- Spread: 49ers -4 at 1.8, Cowboys +4 at 1.86 (bet365)
- Total: 56, over 1.86, under 1.8 (bet365)
49ers vs Cowboys prediction
Our model projects a 29-25 49ers win. It gives San Francisco a 64% win chance and Dallas 36%. Our line is 49ers -4.7 against the market's 49ers -4, and the Statz model gives the 49ers a 52% chance to cover -4. Our total is 53.8 against a market total of 56, which makes the lean Under 56.0. It rates a one-score game at 45% and a 49ers win by 14+ at 26%.
Statz prediction: 49ers 29-25
Lines move before kickoff, so check the prices close to game time.