NBA Prop Picks
Every priced player prop, with our chance, the market's chance and the value in the price.
The whole player prop board, priced. For each player and stat, every line, both sides and every book are weighed, and the row shows the one with the most value: the projection turned into a chance of winning, the bookmaker's price turned into a chance once its margin is stripped out, and what that price is worth. Our chance leans heavily on the market, because last season's record showed it was the better guide. Beside each price is how often the player's last ten games would have won the same pick. Props with a reason not to bet them — an injury tag, a recently missed game, a thin projection, or a model that disagrees with the market implausibly — are flagged rather than hidden. Best Bets is the part of this board with no flags and enough value to publish, and only Best Bets are tracked on the results page.
Frequently asked
Our chance of the pick winning, multiplied by the decimal price, minus one. Our chance starts from the market's probability with the bookmaker's margin removed, and moves part of the way towards the model's projected probability. A 50% chance at 2.10 is worth +5%; a negative number means the price is too short to be worth it.
Best Bets is a shortlist of this board: props with no flags, a price between 1.40 and 3.00, and value of +2% or more. Everything else stays here for context, including the props the model rates as poor value, and only Best Bets are recorded and graded.
How many of the player's last ten games played would have won this exact pick, at this line and on this side. It is context beside the price, not a probability: ten games is a small sample, and a role can change faster than a hit rate does.
Because they carry a reason not to bet them that the price alone does not show: an injury tag, a game missed recently, a projection the model has little confidence in, or a gap between model and market so wide it is more likely the model is wrong. Those were where last season lost most.