NBA Line Watch: Closing Line Value Tracker
NBA Line Watch shows the best bookmaker price on 80 lines the Statz model has a side on, 17 game lines and 63 player props, compared across up to 13 books at the same number. Each row names the book with the best price, the next-best price it beat and how far it is clear of the other books' average; the board is ordered by that gain. The top row is Deni Avdija Under 23.5 at 2 with Paddy Power, 8.3% better than DraftKings at 1.85. Beneath it, every spread or total where the model disagrees with the market is recorded at the best line across 5 bookmakers and graded twice: against the closing line and against the result. 134 signals have been graded so far, winning 56% of the decided ones and beating the closing line 72.9% of the time; 35 are open now. 5 kinds of signal are tracked, from team-news moves of 1.5 points to opening lines 3.0 points from the model.
Best price on every line
The model's side at the line most books quote, priced across every book that posts it.
- The best price for the model's side on every game line and player prop, across up to 13 books
- The next-best price it beat and the gain over the rest of the field, so every row can be checked
- Every line's move since it opened, and each signal graded against the closing line
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Record by signal
| Signal | Bets | Hit rate | Line vs close | Beat the close | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model against the first line we saw | 37 | 54.1% | +1.49 pts | 75.7% | +2.8% |
| One book off the others | 57 | 54.4% | +1.86 pts | 84.2% | +1.6% |
| Our number moved on team news; the market had not | 22 | 63.6% | +1.03 pts | 81.8% | +22.1% |
| Over when a team is on a back-to-back | 18 | 55.6% | +0.03 pts | 50% | +5.7% |
Recently graded
| Game | Pick | Close | Line vs close | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
PHI @ IND 2026-10-28 · One book off the others | PHI -1.5 | +7.5 | +6 pts | Won +0.87u |
PHI @ IND 2026-10-28 · One book off the others | IND +4.5 | +7.5 | -3 pts | Lost -1u |
HOU @ MIL 2026-10-28 · One book off the others | MIL +8.5 | +8.4 | +0.07 pts | Lost -1u |
HOU @ MIL 2026-10-28 · One book off the others | HOU -6.5 | +8.4 | +1.93 pts | Won +0.87u |
MIA @ ATL 2026-10-28 · Model against the first line we saw | ATL -3.5 | -2.5 | -1 pts | Lost -1u |
CHA @ DET 2026-10-28 · Model against the first line we saw | Over 215.5 | 212.8 | -2.67 pts | Lost -1u |
CHA @ DET 2026-10-28 · Over when a team is on a back-to-back | Over 215.5 | 212.8 | -2.67 pts | Lost -1u |
GSW @ MIN 2026-10-28 · Model against the first line we saw | MIN -5.5 | -3.8 | -1.7 pts | Lost -1u |
DEN @ NOP 2026-10-28 · Model against the first line we saw | NOP +5.5 | +4.5 | +1 pts | Lost -1u |
GSW @ MIN 2026-10-28 · One book off the others | GSW +6.5 | -3.8 | +2.7 pts | Won +0.833u |
GSW @ MIN 2026-10-28 · One book off the others | MIN -3 | -3.8 | +0.8 pts | Lost -1u |
GSW @ MIN 2026-10-28 · One book off the others | Under 227.5 | 227.4 | +0.07 pts | Lost -1u |
NYK @ CHI 2026-10-28 · Over when a team is on a back-to-back | Over 234.5 | 232.6 | -1.93 pts | Won +0.935u |
SAS @ UTA 2026-10-28 · Over when a team is on a back-to-back | Over 233.5 | 233.6 | +0.08 pts | Lost -1u |
OKC @ DAL 2026-10-28 · Model against the first line we saw | OKC -5.5 | +5.6 | +0.08 pts | Lost -1u |
LAL @ LAC 2026-10-28 · Model against the first line we saw | LAC +5.5 | -1.4 | +6.88 pts | Lost -1u |
LAL @ LAC 2026-10-28 · Over when a team is on a back-to-back | Over 227.5 | 224.7 | -2.77 pts | Lost -1u |
GSW @ MIN 2026-10-28 · One book off the others | Over 225.5 | 227.4 | +1.93 pts | Won +0.909u |
ORL @ TOR 2026-10-28 · One book off the others | Over 220.5 | 224.5 | +3.97 pts | Won +0.87u |
NYK @ CHI 2026-10-28 · One book off the others | Under 234.5 | 232.6 | +1.93 pts | Lost -1u |
PHI @ IND 2026-10-28 · One book off the others | Under 237.5 | 234.3 | +3.17 pts | Won +0.85u |
CHA @ DET 2026-10-28 · One book off the others | Under 215.5 | 212.8 | +2.67 pts | Won +0.87u |
LAL @ LAC 2026-10-28 · Our number moved on team news; the market had not | LAL +1.5 | -1.4 | +0.12 pts | Won +0.909u |
LAL @ LAC 2026-10-28 · Our number moved on team news; the market had not | Over 224.5 | 224.7 | +0.23 pts | Lost -1u |
PHI @ IND 2026-10-28 · One book off the others | Over 232.5 | 234.3 | +1.83 pts | Lost -1u |
BKN @ BOS 2026-10-27 · Model against the first line we saw | BOS -11.5 | -12.8 | +1.33 pts | Lost -1u |
BKN @ BOS 2026-10-27 · Over when a team is on a back-to-back | Over 220.5 | 223.2 | +2.7 pts | Won +0.909u |
DET @ NYK 2026-10-27 · Model against the first line we saw | DET +4.5 | -4.2 | +0.33 pts | Lost -1u |
SAC @ SAS 2026-10-27 · One book off the others | Under 234.5 | 232.3 | +2.23 pts | Won +0.877u |
DET @ NYK 2026-10-27 · One book off the others | DET +6.5 | -4.2 | +2.33 pts | Lost -1u |
WAS @ CHA 2026-10-26 · Model against the first line we saw | CHA -1.5 | -2.8 | +1.3 pts | Won +0.87u |
DAL @ MIA 2026-10-26 · Model against the first line we saw | DAL +8.5 | -7.5 | +1 pts | Won +0.833u |
DAL @ MIA 2026-10-26 · Model against the first line we saw | Over 233.5 | 240.4 | +6.87 pts | Lost -1u |
MIN @ CLE 2026-10-26 · Model against the first line we saw | MIN +4.5 | -3.3 | +1.23 pts | Won +0.862u |
MIN @ CLE 2026-10-26 · Over when a team is on a back-to-back | Over 232.5 | 233.9 | +1.43 pts | Won +0.893u |
IND @ MIL 2026-10-26 · Model against the first line we saw | MIL +4.5 | +3.9 | +0.6 pts | Won +0.909u |
IND @ MIL 2026-10-26 · Over when a team is on a back-to-back | Over 239.5 | 238.7 | -0.77 pts | Lost -1u |
PHX @ OKC 2026-10-26 · Over when a team is on a back-to-back | Over 218.5 | 221.3 | +2.83 pts | Won +0.909u |
MEM @ UTA 2026-10-26 · Over when a team is on a back-to-back | Over 237.5 | 237.5 | -0.04 pts | Lost -1u |
IND @ MIL 2026-10-26 · Our number moved on team news; the market had not | IND -4.5 | +3.9 | -0.6 pts | Lost -1u |
Picking winners is not an edge: last season our model called 68% of games, exactly as often as the bookmakers' favourite, and betting it at closing prices broke even. What does show an edge is beating the closing line, getting a better number than the market settles on at tip-off. Line Watch records every time we think a spread or total is wrong, at the best line on offer across five bookmakers, and grades each one twice: against the closing line, and against the result. Four kinds of signal are tracked. Team news: a player is ruled in or out, our number moves, and the market's has not yet. A slow book: one bookmaker's line sits away from the others, which on last season's closing lines was worth betting at that book in the others' direction. The opener: the model's own number against the first line posted. And two situational totals leads from last season's closing lines, followed here to see whether they hold up in a season they were not found in. These are tracked for measurement, not published as tips.
Frequently asked
The difference between the line a signal was recorded at and the line at tip-off, in points. Bet a side at -3 that closes at -5 and the market has moved two points your way. Results are noisy over a few hundred bets; closing line value is not, which is why professionals judge a method by it first.
A change in who is available that moves our projected margin by at least 1.5 points (2 for totals) more than the consensus line has moved; one bookmaker's line at least 1.5 points (2 for totals) from the average of the others; a first posted line at least 3 points (5 for totals) from the model's own number; or a game matching one of the tracked totals leads, a team on the second night of a back-to-back, or March and April of the regular season.
The best line available for that side across Bet365, DraftKings, BetMGM, Caesars and BetRivers when it was recorded, at that book's price. The closing line is the average of each book's last line before tip-off.
Related projections
Quick answers4 questions
How is the best price on each line found?
Every book's price for a line is read at the same number, so a 2.05 and a 1.91 on the board are both for the same spread, total or prop line, never two different lines. The model picks the side: the team it has covering, the over or under its total implies, the side of a prop its projection clears.
What is closing line value and why does it matter?
Closing line value is the difference between the line a signal was recorded at and the line at tip-off, in points. Bet a side at -3 that closes at -5 and the market has moved 2 points your way. Over a season that is a better test of a method than wins and losses.
What sets off an NBA Line Watch signal?
A signal fires in one of 5 ways. Team news: a change in who is available moves our projected margin by at least 1.5 points (2.0 on a total) more than the consensus line has moved. A slow book: one bookmaker's line sits at least 1.5 points (2.0 on a total) from the average of the others.
What is the Line Watch record so far?
134 signals have been graded: 75 won, 59 lost, a 56% hit rate on the decided ones, and they beat the closing line 72.9% of the time. The best signal type against the close is "One book off the others", averaging 1.86 points of closing line value over 57 signals. 35 signals are open and waiting for tip-off.