NBA Model Accuracy: Every Projection Graded
NBA model accuracy: every Statz player projection graded against the real box score once the game is final. 5,866 projections have been graded from 28 March 2026 to 1 May 2026, with an average miss of 4.75 points, 1.84 rebounds and 1.26 assists. Over the last month of graded games (4,793 projections) the points miss was 4.84; over the final week it was 4.98 across 695.
Updated
Most recently graded
| Player | Points | Rebounds | Assists | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jarrett Allen 2026-05-01 | 14 proj 12.5 | 7 proj 7.6 | 1 proj 0.6 | 0.53 |
 Thomas Bryant 2026-05-01 | 0 proj 7.1 | 2 proj 5 | 0 proj 0.5 | 2.02 |
 James Harden 2026-05-01 | 16 proj 21.5 | 9 proj 3.3 | 9 proj 5.5 | 3.00 |
 Brandon Ingram 2026-05-01 | 0 proj 17.7 | 0 proj 4.5 | 0 proj 3.3 | 4.68 |
 Donovan Mitchell 2026-05-01 | 24 proj 25.4 | 5 proj 5 | 2 proj 4.2 | 0.97 |
 Larry Nance Jr. 2026-05-01 | 0 proj 4.2 | 0 proj 2.2 | 0 proj 0.8 | 1.42 |
 Jakob Poeltl 2026-05-01 | 2 proj 9 | 4 proj 4.9 | 1 proj 1.6 | 1.67 |
 Dennis Schroder 2026-05-01 | 7 proj 8.9 | 0 proj 2 | 1 proj 3.5 | 1.47 |
 Garrett Temple 2026-05-01 | 0 proj 1.3 | 0 proj 0.5 | 0 proj 0.6 | 0.47 |
 RJ Barrett 2026-05-01 | 24 proj 22.6 | 9 proj 6.1 | 3 proj 3.4 | 1.25 |
 Max Strus 2026-05-01 | 6 proj 10.2 | 5 proj 4.6 | 3 proj 1.9 | 0.98 |
 Dean Wade 2026-05-01 | 10 proj 4.7 | 5 proj 4.1 | 0 proj 1 | 1.42 |
 Immanuel Quickley 2026-05-01 | 0 proj 11.4 | 0 proj 3.3 | 0 proj 4.6 | 3.82 |
 Sam Merrill 2026-05-01 | 2 proj 8.7 | 1 proj 2 | 1 proj 2.2 | 1.80 |
AL AJ Lawson 2026-05-01 | 6 proj 1.9 | 1 proj 0.9 | 0 proj 0.5 | 1.12 |
 Scottie Barnes 2026-05-01 | 25 proj 20.1 | 7 proj 6.1 | 14 proj 7.2 | 2.92 |
 Sandro Mamukelashvili 2026-05-01 | 2 proj 7.9 | 4 proj 5.7 | 1 proj 1.8 | 1.80 |
 Evan Mobley 2026-05-01 | 26 proj 16.2 | 14 proj 8.4 | 3 proj 3.4 | 3.28 |
 Keon Ellis 2026-05-01 | 0 proj 5.3 | 0 proj 2.6 | 0 proj 1.2 | 1.82 |
 Trayce Jackson-Davis 2026-05-01 | 0 proj 1.7 | 0 proj 1 | 0 proj 0.3 | 0.58 |
A projection is only worth what its track record says it is. Every player and game projection is stored when it is made and graded against the real result once the game ends. This page reports the average error by stat and by confidence band, so you can see where the model is reliable and where it is not. Nothing is filtered out: the bad runs are on the page with the good ones, because a model you cannot audit is a model you should not trust.
Frequently asked
The average size of the miss, ignoring direction. An MAE of 4.1 on points means the projection was on average just over four points away from the real figure, whether high or low.
Low-count stats are harder in proportional terms. Being one block out on a projection of one is a bigger relative miss than being four points out on a projection of twenty-four, so blocks and steals will always look worse on a percentage basis.
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ViewHow accurate are Statz NBA player projections?
Across 5,866 graded projections the mean absolute error is 4.75 points, 1.84 rebounds and 1.26 assists, an overall figure of 1.59. The error is steady across windows: 4.84 points over the last month (4,793 projections), 4.98 over the last week (695) and 5.23 on the last graded day (180). Windows are anchored on the most recently graded game, 1 May 2026, so they do not drain to zero between seasons.
Which stat does the NBA model project most accurately?
In absolute terms assists, at 1.26, carries the smallest miss, but the scales differ. Points are the highest-count stat, so a 4.75-point miss on points is a smaller relative error than it looks beside 1.26 on assists. Low-count stats are harder in proportional terms. Being 1 block out on a projection of 1 is a bigger relative miss than being 4 points out on a projection of 24. That is why steals and blocks are not headline figures here. The per-stat errors are reported side by side so each can be judged against the lines it is used to price.
What was the most recently graded NBA projection?
The most recently graded row is Jarrett Allen on 1 May 2026. The projection was 12.5 points, 7.6 rebounds and 0.6 assists; the actual figures were 14.0, 7.0 and 1.0, a mean absolute error of 0.53. The page lists the 20 most recently graded rows with projected and actual figures and the error on each, misses included. Nothing is filtered out: a model you cannot audit is a model you should not trust.