NBA Best Bets Results: Hit Rate and Return
NBA best bets results: every pick logged at the price it was published at and graded once the game was final. 350 picks have been graded: 156 won and 192 lost, a 44.8% hit rate. The return is +0.6% at one unit a pick, +2.2 units. That is every pick since the relaunch from 20 October 2026 to 6 November 2026; nothing from before it is counted.
Best Bets (5%+ value) since 14 October 2026
Every priced pick since 14 October 2026: 2,154 graded, 1027 won, 1070 lost, +17.6 units, +0.8% return, +0.5% against the close.
By market
| Market | Picks | Hit rate | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rebounds | 110 | 38.2% | -15.8% |
| 3-Pointers | 96 | 45.7% | +9.3% |
| Points | 78 | 52.6% | +13.5% |
| Assists | 66 | 45.5% | +0.1% |
Most recent picks
| Player | Pick | Projected | Actual | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 A.J. Green TOR @ MIL | Under 1.5 Rebounds | 2 | 1 | 2.44 closed 2.40 FanDuel | Won |
 Kasparas Jakučionis TOR @ MIL | Under 2.5 Assists | 2.3 | 2 | 2.34 closed 2.00 FanDuel | Won |
 Bilal Coulibaly WAS @ ATL | Under 0.5 3-Pointers | 0.8 | 1 | 2.60 closed 2.40 DraftKings | Lost |
 Coby White BOS @ CHA | Over 3.5 Assists | 4 | 1 | 2.62 closed 2.44 FanDuel | Lost |
 Sam Hauser BOS @ CHA | Under 1.5 3-Pointers | 1.5 | 3 | 2.41 closed 2.00 DraftKings | Lost |
Sam Hauser BOS @ CHA | Under 2.5 Rebounds | 2.3 | 3 | 2.21 closed 2.10 DraftKings | Lost |
 Max Christie UTA @ DAL | Under 8.5 Points | 6.3 | 0 | 1.98 closed 1.91 FanDuel | Won |
 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope PHI @ CLE | Under 1.5 Rebounds | 1.8 | 2 | 2.48 closed 2.26 FanDuel | Lost |
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope PHI @ CLE | Under 0.5 3-Pointers | 0.8 | 1 | 2.76 closed 2.65 DraftKings | Lost |
 Alexandre Sarr WAS @ ATL | Under 0.5 3-Pointers | 0.8 | 1 | 2.50 closed 2.38 Paddy Power | Lost |
 Jayson Tatum BOS @ CHA | Under 6.5 Assists | 5.5 | 9 | 2.10 closed 1.73 Paddy Power | Lost |
 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR @ MIL | Under 1.5 Assists | 1.5 | 2 | 2.25 closed 2.40 Paddy Power | Lost |
Collin Murray-Boyles TOR @ MIL | Under 5.5 Rebounds | 4.8 | 7 | 2.20 closed 1.89 Paddy Power | Lost |
 Caleb Martin DAL @ SAS | Under 2.5 Rebounds | 2.4 | 3 | 2.34 FanDuel | Lost |
 Baylor Scheierman MIL @ BOS | Under 1.5 Assists | 1.6 | 1 | 2.39 DraftKings | Won |
 Zaccharie Risacher DAL @ SAS | Under 4.5 Rebounds | 3.9 | 1 | 2.20 FanDuel | Won |
 Saddiq Bey UTA @ NOP | Over 1.5 3-Pointers | 2.4 | 2 | 2.06 closed 1.87 FanDuel | Won |
 Isaiah Stewart IND @ MEM | Under 4.5 Rebounds | 3.3 | 1 | 1.83 closed 1.88 FanDuel | Won |
 Scoot Henderson POR @ PHX | Under 2.5 Assists | 2 | 1 | 2.00 closed 2.10 FanDuel | Won |
Baylor Scheierman MIL @ BOS | Under 3.5 Rebounds | 3 | 11 | 2.10 closed 2.23 BetParx | Lost |
Baylor Scheierman MIL @ BOS | Under 9.5 Points | 6.6 | 9 | 1.89 closed 1.87 DraftKings | Won |
Baylor Scheierman MIL @ BOS | Under 1.5 3-Pointers | 1.3 | 3 | 2.25 closed 2.33 BetMGM | Lost |
 Herbert Jones UTA @ NOP | Under 2.5 Rebounds | 2.2 | 5 | 2.12 closed 2.20 FanDuel | Lost |
 Jalen Smith CHI @ NYK | Under 10.5 Points | 7.3 | 3 | 1.87 closed 1.94 DraftKings | Won |
 Scottie Barnes TOR @ DEN | Under 0.5 3-Pointers | 0.7 | 1 | 2.28 closed 2.45 DraftKings | Lost |
 Daniss Jenkins PHI @ DET | Under 0.5 3-Pointers | 0.8 | 1 | 2.65 closed 2.60 BetParx | Lost |
 Jake LaRavia LAL @ SAC | Under 0.5 3-Pointers | 0.6 | 2 | 2.02 closed 2.10 BetRivers | Lost |
 Jeremiah Fears UTA @ NOP | Under 3.5 Rebounds | 2.9 | 6 | 2.05 closed 2.25 BetMGM | Lost |
 OG Anunoby CHI @ NYK | Over 2 3-Pointers | 2.5 | 1 | 2.45 Bally Bet | Lost |
 Jamal Shead TOR @ DEN | Under 4.5 Assists | 3.8 | 6 | 2.10 Paddy Power | Lost |
The ledger. Every selection the board publishes is recorded at the price it carried when it went up, and that price is never changed; the last price before tip-off is kept beside it, so you can see whether picks beat the closing line. Picks are settled against the real result, wins and losses alike. A pick on a player who did not play is voided, as a bookmaker would void it, and counts as neither. The record starts at 0-0 from the relaunch in October 2026; nothing older is counted.
Frequently asked
One unit staked on every graded pick at the price it was published at. Voided picks return the stake and are left out. A return of -5% means a hundred units staked would have come back as ninety-five.
The pick is voided, exactly as a bookmaker voids a player prop when the player takes no part. Picks on games that never happened, such as playoff games a series did not need, are voided too.
Yes, all of them. The ledger is written when a pick publishes and graded when the game ends; nothing is removed or re-priced afterwards.
Quick answers3 questions
What is the Statz NBA best bets hit rate?
The hit rate is 44.8%: 156 of the 350 graded picks won and 192 lost, with 2 pushed and 8 voided. Every pick since the relaunch counts, from 20 October 2026 to 6 November 2026, graded at the published price. The return is +0.6%, which at one unit a pick is +2.2 units.
Which NBA prop market has performed best for best bets?
By market, Points has been the best: 41 of 78 won, a 52.6% hit rate and a +13.5% return. Rebounds has been the worst: 42 of 110 won, 38.2% and -15.8%. The rest: Assists 30/66 (+0.1%) and 3-Pointers 43/96 (+9.3%).
How is the return on best bets calculated?
One unit is staked on every graded pick at the price it was published at. A winner at decimal odds of 2.10 returns +1.10 units, a loser -1 unit, and a push returns the stake; voided picks are left out. On this record that is +2.2 units across 350 picks, a return of +0.6%.