No, Bremen have taken 22 points over their last 20 Bundesliga games, within 2.63 of the 24.63 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Bremen create 1.24 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Bundesliga games, 24.70 in all, and have scored 26 goals from those chances, 1.30 more than that xG would expect.
Bremen allow 1.55 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Bundesliga games, 30.96 in all, and have conceded 33 goals from those chances, 2.04 more than that xGA would expect.
Romano Schmid has the most expected goals (xG) for Bremen over their last 20 Bundesliga games, 3.10 xG in 15 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Justin Njinmah is next with 2.96 xG.
Bremen's results and their chances agree, within 2.6 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 24.70 | 26 | +1.30 | 30.96 | 33 | -2.04 | 24.63 | 22 | -2.63 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 11.31 | 15 | +3.69 | 17.69 | 18 | -0.31 | 10.03 | 12 | +1.97 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.91 | 10 | +4.09 | 8.40 | 10 | -1.60 | 5.24 | 8 | +2.76 |
| Home | 10 | 13.69 | 14 | +0.31 | 14.36 | 17 | -2.64 | 13.73 | 13 | -0.73 |
| Away | 10 | 11.01 | 12 | +0.99 | 16.60 | 16 | +0.60 | 10.90 | 9 | -1.90 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Bundesliga | Dortmund (A) | 2-2 | 0.77 | 2.04 | 0.59 | 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | Bundesliga | Augsburg (H) | 3-2 | 2.39 | 0.84 | 2.32 | 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | Bundesliga | Koln (A) | 1-1 | 1.33 | 2.05 | 0.96 | 1 | L |
| 5 Sep | Bundesliga | RB Leipzig (H) | 3-1 | 0.71 | 1.52 | 0.78 | 3 | L |
| 30 Aug | Bundesliga | Freiburg (A) | 4-1 | 0.71 | 1.95 | 0.59 | 0 | L |
| 16 May | Bundesliga | Dortmund (H) | 0-2 | 0.70 | 2.66 | 0.36 | 0 | L |
| 9 May | Bundesliga | Hoffenheim (A) | 1-0 | 0.95 | 1.59 | 0.92 | 0 | L |
| 2 May | Bundesliga | Augsburg (H) | 1-3 | 1.04 | 2.36 | 0.64 | 0 | L |
| 26 Apr | Bundesliga | Stuttgart (A) | 1-1 | 1.03 | 2.04 | 0.76 | 1 | L |
| 18 Apr | Bundesliga | Hamburg (H) | 3-1 | 1.68 | 0.64 | 2.11 | 3 | W |
| 12 Apr | Bundesliga | Koln (A) | 3-1 | 0.98 | 3.79 | 0.24 | 0 | L |
| 4 Apr | Bundesliga | RB Leipzig (H) | 1-2 | 1.61 | 0.93 | 1.85 | 0 | W |
| 21 Mar | Bundesliga | Wolfsburg (A) | 0-1 | 0.38 | 0.94 | 0.81 | 3 | L |
| 15 Mar | Bundesliga | Mainz (H) | 0-2 | 1.33 | 1.49 | 1.27 | 0 | L |
| 8 Mar | Bundesliga | U Berlin (A) | 1-4 | 1.94 | 1.23 | 1.84 | 3 | W |
| 28 Feb | Bundesliga | Heidenheim (H) | 2-0 | 1.66 | 1.18 | 1.70 | 3 | W |
| 22 Feb | Bundesliga | St. Pauli (A) | 2-1 | 1.62 | 0.41 | 2.26 | 0 | W |
| 14 Feb | Bundesliga | Bayern (H) | 0-3 | 0.89 | 1.94 | 0.71 | 0 | L |
| 7 Feb | Bundesliga | Freiburg (A) | 1-0 | 1.30 | 0.56 | 1.93 | 0 | W |
| 31 Jan | Bundesliga | Gladbach (H) | 1-1 | 1.68 | 0.80 | 1.99 | 1 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niclas Füllkrug | attacker | 5 | 396 | 1.53 | 4 | +2.47 | 0.35 |
| Jens Stage | midfielder | 12 | 1005 | 2.52 | 4 | +1.48 | 0.23 |
| Dariusz Stalmach | midfielder | 4 | 96 | 0.16 | 1 | +0.84 | 0.15 |
| Marco Grüll | attacker | 19 | 1169 | 2.22 | 3 | +0.78 | 0.17 |
| Jovan Milosevic | attacker | 9 | 317 | 1.53 | 2 | +0.47 | 0.43 |
| Patrice Covic | midfielder | 6 | 117 | 0.55 | 1 | +0.45 | 0.42 |
| Ludovit Reis | midfielder | 5 | 413 | 0.81 | 1 | +0.19 | 0.18 |
| Olivier Deman | defender | 18 | 1592 | 0.85 | 1 | +0.15 | 0.05 |
| Eren Dinkçi | attacker | 5 | 304 | 0.85 | 1 | +0.15 | 0.25 |
| Cameron Puertas | midfielder | 13 | 1011 | 0.89 | 1 | +0.11 | 0.08 |
| Salim Musah | attacker | 11 | 243 | 1.00 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Keke Topp | attacker | 6 | 215 | 1.23 | 1 | -0.23 | 0.52 |
| Chuki | midfielder | 5 | 434 | 0.61 | 0 | -0.61 | 0.13 |
| Senne Lynen | midfielder | 14 | 1214 | 0.63 | 0 | -0.63 | 0.05 |
| Samuel Mbangula | attacker | 10 | 431 | 0.74 | 0 | -0.74 | 0.15 |
| Romano Schmid | midfielder | 15 | 1324 | 3.10 | 2 | -1.10 | 0.21 |
| Justin Njinmah | attacker | 16 | 1029 | 2.96 | 1 | -1.96 | 0.26 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 8.7 | 13 | 14.3 | 8 | 4.5 | 8 | +3.5 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 8.9 | 11 | 4.6 | 4 | 9.8 | 13 | +3.2 |
| 3 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 5.9 | 10 | 8.4 | 10 | 5.2 | 8 | +2.8 |
| 4 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 10.4 | 14 | 4.4 | 4 | 10.4 | 13 | +2.6 |
| 5 | Elversberg | 5 | 6.5 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4.7 | 7 | +2.3 |
| 6 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 4.8 | 5 | 9.7 | 15 | 4 | 6 | +2 |
| 7 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 6.1 | 4 | 10.4 | 6 | 4.5 | 5 | +0.5 |
| 8 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 12 | 14 | 6.3 | 8 | 10.1 | 10 | -0.1 |
| 9 | FC Köln | 5 | 9.5 | 8 | 9.7 | 10 | 7.1 | 7 | -0.1 |
| 10 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 9.7 | 8 | 10.4 | 9 | 6.3 | 6 | -0.3 |
| 12 | Paderborn | 5 | 5.1 | 3 | 8.3 | 7 | 4.7 | 4 | -0.7 |
| 13 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 12.2 | 15 | 5.8 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -1 |
| 14 | FC Bayern München | 5 | 15.1 | 16 | 4.2 | 4 | 12.3 | 11 | -1.3 |
| 15 | FC Union Berlin | 5 | 6.6 | 5 | 10.2 | 17 | 5.9 | 4 | -1.9 |
| 16 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 11.9 | 13 | 8.3 | 10 | 9.1 | 7 | -2.1 |
| 17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 8.6 | 7 | 14.2 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 | -4.5 |
| 18 | TSG Hoffenheim | 5 | 9.2 | 9 | 8.1 | 13 | 7.7 | 3 | -4.7 |