No, Valencia have taken 25 points over their last 20 La Liga games, within 2.17 of the 27.17 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Valencia create 1.27 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 La Liga games, 25.45 in all, and have scored 25 goals from those chances, 0.45 fewer than that xG would expect.
Valencia allow 1.34 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 La Liga games, 26.77 in all, and have conceded 31 goals from those chances, 4.23 more than that xGA would expect.
Umar Sadiq has the most expected goals (xG) for Valencia over their last 20 La Liga games, 4.36 xG in 15 appearances, and has scored 4 goals; Hugo Duro is next with 4.31 xG.
Valencia's results and their chances agree, within 2.2 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 25.45 | 25 | -0.45 | 26.77 | 31 | -4.23 | 27.17 | 25 | -2.17 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 10.68 | 13 | +2.32 | 14.02 | 19 | -4.98 | 12.32 | 11 | -1.32 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.71 | 5 | +0.29 | 9.55 | 11 | -1.45 | 4.40 | 4 | -0.40 |
| Home | 10 | 14.08 | 13 | -1.08 | 16.29 | 19 | -2.71 | 13.23 | 11 | -2.23 |
| Away | 10 | 11.37 | 12 | +0.63 | 10.48 | 12 | -1.52 | 13.94 | 14 | +0.06 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | La Liga | Racing (A) | 2-2 | 1.58 | 1.15 | 1.67 | 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | La Liga | Sociedad (H) | 2-3 | 1.93 | 2.54 | 1.07 | 0 | L |
| 15 Sep | La Liga | Alaves (A) | 0-1 | 0.71 | 0.99 | 1.10 | 3 | L |
| 11 Sep | La Liga | Sevilla (A) | 1-0 | 0.09 | 0.99 | 0.48 | 0 | L |
| 6 Sep | La Liga | Barcelona (H) | 0-5 | 0.40 | 3.88 | 0.08 | 0 | L |
| 30 Aug | La Liga | Deportivo (A) | 3-1 | 1.26 | 1.46 | 1.23 | 0 | L |
| 25 Aug | La Liga | Betis (H) | 0-1 | 1.13 | 0.83 | 1.59 | 0 | W |
| 22 Aug | La Liga | Celta (H) | 0-0 | 0.77 | 0.49 | 1.56 | 1 | D |
| 23 May | La Liga | Barcelona (H) | 3-1 | 1.67 | 1.02 | 1.82 | 3 | W |
| 17 May | La Liga | Sociedad (A) | 3-4 | 1.14 | 0.67 | 1.72 | 3 | W |
| 14 May | La Liga | Rayo (H) | 1-1 | 0.79 | 1.23 | 1.02 | 1 | L |
| 10 May | La Liga | Athletic Club (A) | 0-1 | 1.26 | 1.19 | 1.42 | 3 | W |
| 2 May | La Liga | Atlético (H) | 0-2 | 1.67 | 1.50 | 1.49 | 0 | W |
| 25 Apr | La Liga | Girona (H) | 2-1 | 1.95 | 1.76 | 1.51 | 3 | W |
| 21 Apr | La Liga | Mallorca (A) | 1-1 | 1.23 | 1.82 | 1.00 | 1 | L |
| 11 Apr | La Liga | Elche (A) | 1-0 | 2.18 | 0.67 | 2.34 | 0 | W |
| 5 Apr | La Liga | Celta (H) | 2-3 | 1.03 | 1.52 | 1.03 | 0 | L |
| 21 Mar | La Liga | Sevilla (A) | 0-2 | 1.05 | 0.63 | 1.68 | 3 | W |
| 14 Mar | La Liga | Oviedo (A) | 1-0 | 0.87 | 0.91 | 1.30 | 0 | L |
| 8 Mar | La Liga | Alaves (H) | 3-2 | 2.74 | 1.52 | 2.06 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido RodrÃguez | midfielder | 17 | 1487 | 1.05 | 4 | +2.95 | 0.06 |
| Javi Guerra | midfielder | 19 | 1463 | 2.62 | 4 | +1.38 | 0.16 |
| Luis Rioja | attacker | 16 | 984 | 0.91 | 2 | +1.09 | 0.08 |
| Diego López | attacker | 11 | 469 | 0.61 | 1 | +0.39 | 0.12 |
| David Otorbi | attacker | 7 | 294 | 0.75 | 1 | +0.25 | 0.23 |
| Eray Cömert | defender | 8 | 685 | 0.82 | 1 | +0.18 | 0.11 |
| Umar Sadiq | attacker | 15 | 741 | 4.36 | 4 | -0.36 | 0.53 |
| Filip Ugrinic | midfielder | 19 | 1171 | 0.85 | 0 | -0.85 | 0.07 |
| Largie Ramazani | attacker | 12 | 768 | 3.10 | 2 | -1.10 | 0.36 |
| Lucas Beltrán | attacker | 6 | 267 | 1.16 | 0 | -1.16 | 0.39 |
| Hugo Duro | attacker | 19 | 892 | 4.31 | 3 | -1.31 | 0.44 |
| Arnaut Danjuma | attacker | 14 | 714 | 1.43 | 0 | -1.43 | 0.18 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis | 8 | 14 | 14 | 12.9 | 9 | 11.9 | 19 | +7.1 |
| 2 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 9.4 | 12 | 14.4 | 15 | 8.3 | 13 | +4.7 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 8 | 14.1 | 18 | 8.5 | 8 | 14.4 | 19 | +4.6 |
| 4 | FC Barcelona | 8 | 27.9 | 34 | 7.1 | 7 | 19.7 | 24 | +4.3 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 10.3 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 10.6 | 14 | +3.4 |
| 6 | Real Madrid | 8 | 18 | 19 | 9.2 | 8 | 16 | 18 | +2 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés | 8 | 9.1 | 12 | 10.6 | 8 | 10.3 | 11 | +0.7 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 9.2 | 11 | 13.3 | 16 | 7.6 | 8 | +0.4 |
| 9 | Getafe | 8 | 6.8 | 4 | 11.8 | 10 | 7.9 | 8 | +0.1 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 8 | 10.6 | 13 | 17 | 23 | 8.7 | 8 | -0.7 |
| 11 | Levante | 7 | 9.1 | 11 | 14.5 | 15 | 6.8 | 6 | -0.8 |
| 12 | Deportivo La Coruña | 8 | 10.2 | 12 | 9.6 | 11 | 10.9 | 10 | -0.9 |
| 13 | Celta de Vigo | 8 | 7.3 | 8 | 9.6 | 6 | 9.4 | 8 | -1.4 |
| 14 | Osasuna | 8 | 9.8 | 8 | 12.2 | 18 | 10 | 8 | -2 |
| 15 | Athletic Club | 6 | 9.4 | 7 | 7.8 | 6 | 10.1 | 8 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Málaga | 8 | 7 | 4 | 14.2 | 13 | 7 | 4 | -3 |
| 17 | Valencia | 8 | 7.9 | 6 | 12.3 | 15 | 8.8 | 5 | -3.8 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 10.6 | 11 | 12.2 | 17 | 10.6 | 6 | -4.6 |
| 19 | Espanyol | 8 | 11.4 | 11 | 9.3 | 11 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |
| 20 | Villarreal | 8 | 17.1 | 13 | 10.5 | 13 | 14.4 | 8 | -6.4 |