No, Elche have taken 23 points over their last 20 La Liga games, within 2.19 of the 25.19 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Elche create 1.16 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 La Liga games, 23.16 in all, and have scored 26 goals from those chances, 2.84 more than that xG would expect.
Elche allow 1.35 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 La Liga games, 26.92 in all, and have conceded 35 goals from those chances, 8.08 more than that xGA would expect.
André Silva has the most expected goals (xG) for Elche over their last 20 La Liga games, 3.90 xG in 11 appearances, and has scored 4 goals; Álvaro Rodríguez is next with 3.01 xG.
Elche's results and their chances agree, within 2.2 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 23.16 | 26 | +2.84 | 26.92 | 35 | -8.08 | 25.19 | 23 | -2.19 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 11.40 | 13 | +1.60 | 13.07 | 18 | -4.93 | 13.09 | 10 | -3.09 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.41 | 8 | +0.59 | 7.07 | 8 | -0.93 | 7.24 | 5 | -2.24 |
| Home | 9 | 12.54 | 12 | -0.54 | 13.32 | 15 | -1.68 | 12.60 | 14 | +1.40 |
| Away | 11 | 10.62 | 14 | +3.38 | 13.60 | 20 | -6.40 | 12.59 | 9 | -3.59 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Oct | La Liga | Celta (H) | 0-0 | 0.88 | 0.30 | 1.85 | 1 | W |
| 18 Sep | La Liga | Espanyol (A) | 1-3 | 0.71 | 1.13 | 1.00 | 3 | L |
| 15 Sep | La Liga | Real Madrid (H) | 2-3 | 1.49 | 2.90 | 0.68 | 0 | L |
| 12 Sep | La Liga | Athletic Club (A) | 1-1 | 1.79 | 2.05 | 1.24 | 1 | L |
| 7 Sep | La Liga | Sociedad (H) | 2-3 | 2.54 | 0.69 | 2.47 | 0 | W |
| 28 Aug | La Liga | Racing (A) | 3-2 | 1.30 | 1.60 | 1.17 | 0 | L |
| 23 Aug | La Liga | Barcelona (H) | 0-5 | 0.64 | 3.03 | 0.25 | 0 | L |
| 17 Aug | La Liga | Deportivo (A) | 1-1 | 1.25 | 0.53 | 1.93 | 1 | W |
| 23 May | La Liga | Girona (A) | 1-1 | 0.24 | 0.68 | 0.82 | 1 | D |
| 17 May | La Liga | Getafe (H) | 1-0 | 0.56 | 0.16 | 1.68 | 3 | D |
| 12 May | La Liga | Betis (A) | 2-1 | 0.47 | 1.62 | 0.55 | 0 | L |
| 9 May | La Liga | Alaves (H) | 1-1 | 1.70 | 1.79 | 1.34 | 1 | L |
| 3 May | La Liga | Celta (A) | 3-1 | 1.69 | 0.69 | 2.08 | 0 | W |
| 26 Apr | La Liga | Oviedo (A) | 1-2 | 0.41 | 1.05 | 0.77 | 3 | L |
| 22 Apr | La Liga | Atlético (H) | 3-2 | 2.41 | 0.76 | 2.38 | 3 | W |
| 11 Apr | La Liga | Valencia (H) | 1-0 | 0.67 | 2.18 | 0.48 | 3 | L |
| 3 Apr | La Liga | Rayo (A) | 1-0 | 0.49 | 1.38 | 0.68 | 0 | L |
| 21 Mar | La Liga | Mallorca (H) | 2-1 | 1.65 | 1.51 | 1.47 | 3 | W |
| 14 Mar | La Liga | Real Madrid (A) | 4-1 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.35 | 0 | W |
| 8 Mar | La Liga | Villarreal (A) | 2-1 | 1.27 | 1.87 | 1.00 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fer Niño | attacker | 8 | 541 | 2.40 | 5 | +2.60 | 0.40 |
| Héctor Fort | defender | 5 | 154 | 0.08 | 1 | +0.92 | 0.05 |
| Pedro Bigas | defender | 13 | 794 | 0.15 | 1 | +0.85 | 0.02 |
| Buba Sangaré | defender | 18 | 1067 | 0.27 | 1 | +0.73 | 0.02 |
| Thomas Lemar | midfielder | 5 | 252 | 0.29 | 1 | +0.71 | 0.10 |
| Marc Aguado | midfielder | 15 | 1093 | 0.42 | 1 | +0.58 | 0.03 |
| Germán Valera | attacker | 19 | 1574 | 0.53 | 1 | +0.47 | 0.03 |
| Víctor Chust | defender | 19 | 1361 | 0.55 | 1 | +0.45 | 0.04 |
| Gonzalo Villar | midfielder | 19 | 1351 | 0.59 | 1 | +0.41 | 0.04 |
| David Affengruber | defender | 15 | 1302 | 0.73 | 1 | +0.27 | 0.05 |
| Tete Morente | attacker | 18 | 1163 | 0.80 | 1 | +0.20 | 0.06 |
| André Silva | attacker | 11 | 664 | 3.90 | 4 | +0.10 | 0.53 |
| Lucas Cepeda | attacker | 13 | 370 | 0.95 | 1 | +0.05 | 0.23 |
| Rafa Mir | attacker | 6 | 386 | 1.25 | 1 | -0.25 | 0.29 |
| Facundo Buonanotte | midfielder | 5 | 222 | 1.33 | 1 | -0.33 | 0.54 |
| Abiel Osorio | attacker | 5 | 206 | 1.57 | 1 | -0.57 | 0.68 |
| Aleix Febas | midfielder | 11 | 926 | 0.58 | 0 | -0.58 | 0.06 |
| Grady Diangana | attacker | 6 | 303 | 0.64 | 0 | -0.64 | 0.19 |
| Ali Houary | attacker | 3 | 191 | 0.92 | 0 | -0.92 | 0.43 |
| Álvaro Rodríguez | attacker | 11 | 763 | 3.01 | 2 | -1.01 | 0.36 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis | 8 | 14 | 14 | 12.9 | 9 | 11.9 | 19 | +7.1 |
| 2 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 9.4 | 12 | 14.4 | 15 | 8.3 | 13 | +4.7 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 8 | 14.1 | 18 | 8.5 | 8 | 14.4 | 19 | +4.6 |
| 4 | FC Barcelona | 8 | 27.9 | 34 | 7.1 | 7 | 19.7 | 24 | +4.3 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 10.3 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 10.6 | 14 | +3.4 |
| 6 | Real Madrid | 8 | 18 | 19 | 9.2 | 8 | 16 | 18 | +2 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés | 8 | 9.1 | 12 | 10.6 | 8 | 10.3 | 11 | +0.7 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 9.2 | 11 | 13.3 | 16 | 7.6 | 8 | +0.4 |
| 9 | Getafe | 8 | 6.8 | 4 | 11.8 | 10 | 7.9 | 8 | +0.1 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 8 | 10.6 | 13 | 17 | 23 | 8.7 | 8 | -0.7 |
| 11 | Levante | 7 | 9.1 | 11 | 14.5 | 15 | 6.8 | 6 | -0.8 |
| 12 | Deportivo La Coruña | 8 | 10.2 | 12 | 9.6 | 11 | 10.9 | 10 | -0.9 |
| 13 | Celta de Vigo | 8 | 7.3 | 8 | 9.6 | 6 | 9.4 | 8 | -1.4 |
| 14 | Osasuna | 8 | 9.8 | 8 | 12.2 | 18 | 10 | 8 | -2 |
| 15 | Athletic Club | 6 | 9.4 | 7 | 7.8 | 6 | 10.1 | 8 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Málaga | 8 | 7 | 4 | 14.2 | 13 | 7 | 4 | -3 |
| 17 | Valencia | 8 | 7.9 | 6 | 12.3 | 15 | 8.8 | 5 | -3.8 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 10.6 | 11 | 12.2 | 17 | 10.6 | 6 | -4.6 |
| 19 | Espanyol | 8 | 11.4 | 11 | 9.3 | 11 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |
| 20 | Villarreal | 8 | 17.1 | 13 | 10.5 | 13 | 14.4 | 8 | -6.4 |