Yes, Burton have taken 12 points over 10 League One games in 2026/2027, 2.08 more than the 9.92 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Burton create 0.83 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 League One games in 2026/2027, 8.33 in all, and have scored 14 goals from those chances, 5.67 more than that xG would expect.
Burton allow 1.54 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 League One games in 2026/2027, 15.37 in all, and have conceded 16 goals from those chances, 0.63 more than that xGA would expect.
C. Webster has the most expected goals (xG) for Burton over 10 League One games in 2026/2027, 1.17 xG in 10 appearances, and has scored 1 goal; Matthew Dennis is next with 1.08 xG.
Burton have taken 2.1 points more than their chances warranted over 10 games: +5.7 goals against their xG, and -0.6 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 8.33 | 14 | +5.67 | 15.37 | 16 | -0.63 | 9.92 | 12 | +2.08 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 3.44 | 4 | +0.56 | 8.61 | 9 | -0.39 | 3.92 | 4 | +0.08 |
| Home | 5 | 4.48 | 10 | +5.52 | 7.61 | 9 | -1.39 | 5.33 | 6 | +0.67 |
| Away | 5 | 3.85 | 4 | +0.15 | 7.76 | 7 | +0.76 | 4.59 | 6 | +1.41 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League One | Doncaster (A) | 1-0 | 1.11 | 0.70 | 1.67 | 0 | W |
| 3 Oct | League One | Huddersfield (H) | 1-3 | 0.17 | 2.85 | 0.11 | 0 | L |
| 26 Sep | League One | Plymouth (A) | 0-1 | 0.99 | 1.97 | 0.77 | 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | League One | Mansfield (H) | 2-2 | 0.63 | 1.86 | 0.57 | 1 | L |
| 12 Sep | League One | Oxford Utd (A) | 3-0 | 0.54 | 1.23 | 0.80 | 0 | L |
| 5 Sep | League One | Cambridge (H) | 2-2 | 1.70 | 0.90 | 1.92 | 1 | W |
| 2 Sep | League One | Wimbledon (H) | 4-1 | 0.96 | 1.38 | 1.06 | 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | League One | Notts County (A) | 2-1 | 0.17 | 2.62 | 0.13 | 0 | L |
| 22 Aug | League One | Leicester (A) | 1-2 | 1.04 | 1.24 | 1.22 | 3 | L |
| 15 Aug | League One | Stevenage (H) | 1-1 | 1.02 | 0.62 | 1.67 | 1 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Delap | defender | 8 | 703 | 0.34 | 3 | +2.66 | 0.04 |
| J. Armer | defender | 10 | 846 | 0.73 | 3 | +2.27 | 0.08 |
| George Evans | midfielder | 7 | 602 | 0.18 | 1 | +0.82 | 0.03 |
| K. Chauke | midfielder | 10 | 892 | 0.40 | 1 | +0.60 | 0.04 |
| C. Vickers | midfielder | 7 | 550 | 0.87 | 1 | +0.13 | 0.14 |
| Curtis Tilt | defender | 9 | 803 | 0.99 | 1 | +0.01 | 0.11 |
| Matthew Dennis | attacker | 6 | 346 | 1.08 | 1 | -0.08 | 0.28 |
| C. Webster | midfielder | 10 | 863 | 1.17 | 1 | -0.17 | 0.12 |
| Raphael Borges Rodrigues | attacker | 6 | 502 | 0.58 | 0 | -0.58 | 0.10 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oxford United | 7 | 8.7 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 8.8 | 14 | +5.2 |
| 2 | Bradford City | 9 | 9.8 | 8 | 8.3 | 5 | 13 | 17 | +4 |
| 3 | Cambridge United | 9 | 12.7 | 14 | 13.1 | 11 | 12.4 | 16 | +3.6 |
| 4 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 7.7 | 13 | 15.7 | 11 | 7.4 | 11 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Plymouth Argyle | 10 | 16.9 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 15.5 | 19 | +3.5 |
| 6 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 9.6 | 7 | 14.1 | 10 | 9.5 | 12 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Burton Albion | 10 | 8.3 | 14 | 15.4 | 16 | 9.9 | 12 | +2.1 |
| 8 | Bromley | 8 | 7.7 | 9 | 16.9 | 20 | 6.1 | 8 | +1.9 |
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 8 | 10.4 | 12 | 12.6 | 14 | 9.9 | 11 | +1.1 |
| 10 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | 17.1 | 15 | 10.1 | 8 | 14.5 | 15 | +0.5 |
| 11 | Stockport County | 9 | 17.3 | 20 | 11.5 | 11 | 15.8 | 16 | +0.2 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 8 | 9.8 | 12 | 7.7 | 8 | 12.1 | 12 | -0.1 |
| 13 | Huddersfield Town | 9 | 18.9 | 16 | 9.3 | 9 | 17.7 | 16 | -1.7 |
| 14 | Wycombe Wanderers | 9 | 13.9 | 14 | 15.5 | 20 | 11.9 | 10 | -1.9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 8 | 15.5 | 13 | 17.2 | 14 | 10.1 | 8 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Reading | 9 | 18.4 | 22 | 9.8 | 11 | 17.4 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 17 | Doncaster Rovers | 8 | 11.3 | 9 | 9.8 | 9 | 11.7 | 9 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Luton Town | 8 | 13.9 | 16 | 9.6 | 15 | 13.9 | 11 | -2.9 |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | 12 | 8 | 12.7 | 15 | 11 | 8 | -3 |
| 20 | Peterborough United | 9 | 13.5 | 7 | 17.1 | 14 | 11.1 | 8 | -3.1 |
| 21 | Notts County | 8 | 9.4 | 8 | 10.6 | 11 | 10.1 | 7 | -3.1 |
| 22 | Leicester City | 8 | 13.3 | 10 | 11.6 | 14 | 12.2 | 9 | -3.2 |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | 12.3 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 10.7 | 6 | -4.7 |
| 24 | Wigan Athletic | 8 | 11.3 | 5 | 13.1 | 13 | 9.8 | 4 | -5.8 |