A big chance is a chance a player would reasonably be expected to score: usually one on one with the goalkeeper, or a shot or header from a few yards out. It is marked by the people logging the match rather than worked out by a formula, which is what sets it apart from xG.
Big chances are rare and they decide games. In the 2025/2026 Premier League they were fewer than one shot in five, yet 60% of all goals came from them.
The clearest examples are one on ones with the goalkeeper, tap ins and headers from close range, and shots into an open goal. What they share is position and time: the player is close to goal, facing it, with nobody in the way.
A shot from outside the box is almost never a big chance, however well it is struck, and neither is a snatched effort under heavy pressure. Because a person makes the call, providers do not always agree on the borderline ones.
A big chance created is the pass that sets one up, credited to the passer whether or not it is scored: the best kind of chance created. A big chance missed is one that does not end in a goal, whether the shot is saved, blocked or off target.
In the 2025/2026 Premier League, Bruno Fernandes created 32 big chances, 14 more than anyone else, and Erling Haaland missed 30, the most in the league, while still scoring 27 goals.
Missing plenty is not a bad sign on its own: a striker has to get into the right places to miss big chances at all.
Just over a third of the time. Premier League sides scored 629 of their 1,723 big chances in 2025/2026, a conversion rate of 36.5%. Chelsea and Nottingham Forest converted the most, 44.1%, and Wolverhampton Wanderers the fewest, 24.1%.
Making them matters more than finishing them. Arsenal won the title converting only 32.5%, below the league's rate, because they created 117, second only to Manchester City, and conceded the fewest, 51.
Updated 8 November 2026, after the last game
| Rank | Club | Played | Big chances created | Big chances scored | Big chances missed | Conversion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 10 | 38 | 12 | 26 | 31.6% |
| 2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 10 | 37 | 15 | 22 | 40.5% |
| 3 | AFC Bournemouth | 10 | 35 | 11 | 24 | 31.4% |
| 4 | Everton | 10 | 34 | 7 | 27 | 20.6% |
| 5 | Crystal Palace | 10 | 29 | 7 | 22 | 24.1% |
| 6 | Manchester United | 10 | 28 | 9 | 19 | 32.1% |
| 7 | Sunderland | 10 | 28 | 7 | 21 | 25.0% |
| 8 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 27 | 6 | 21 | 22.2% |
| 9 | Brentford | 10 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 52.0% |
| 10 | Chelsea | 10 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 44.0% |
| 11 | Arsenal | 10 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 37.5% |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 10 | 23 | 10 | 13 | 43.5% |
| 13 | Tottenham Hotspur | 10 | 23 | 5 | 18 | 21.7% |
| 14 | Ipswich Town | 10 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 50.0% |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 21 | 2 | 19 | 9.5% |
| 16 | Leeds United | 10 | 21 | 6 | 15 | 28.6% |
| 17 | Newcastle United | 10 | 19 | 3 | 16 | 15.8% |
| 18 | Liverpool | 10 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 35.3% |
| 19 | Hull City | 10 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 40.0% |
| 20 | Coventry City | 10 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 35.7% |
Premier League big chances created by club
xG gives every shot a value, and big chances flag the ones that should have been goals. The two overlap heavily: a big chance is worth far more xG than an ordinary shot, so a team's big chances make up much of its xG.
The difference is the judgement. xG comes from a model built on past shots, while a big chance is a call made by the person logging the game, so the two can disagree on a rushed shot or a chance under pressure. How xG is calculated
A big chance created is a pass that sets up a teammate for a chance they would reasonably be expected to score, credited to the passer whether or not it goes in. Bruno Fernandes created 32 in the 2025/2026 Premier League.
A big chance missed is a big chance that does not end in a goal, whether the shot is saved, blocked or misses the target. Erling Haaland missed 30 in the 2025/2026 Premier League, the most of anyone, and still scored 27 goals.
Anything above 40% is good: Premier League sides scored 36.5% of their big chances in 2025/2026, and Chelsea and Nottingham Forest led the league on 44.1%. Below 30% usually means a team is wasting the chances it works hard to make.
Every Premier League player and club on big chances: players' big chances missed, players' big chances created and clubs' big chances created.