The Statz NFL game simulator plays the Miami Dolphins at the Indianapolis Colts 10,000 times: Week 10 of the 2026 season, Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts win 59% of the games and the projected score is Dolphins 22, Colts 25, a total of 46.8 points.
The likeliest pairing of scores is the Dolphins 21-27 and the Colts 21-27, 8.1% of games on its own. The Colts win by 7 or more 40% of the time and the Dolphins 24%; 46% of games are decided by one score and 2.9% go to overtime.
At the market's IND −4 the Colts cover in 47% of simulations; at its total of 38.5 the game goes over 74% of the time.
Score bands: Dolphins points down the side, Colts points across| MIA / IND | 0–6 | 7–13 | 14–20 | 21–27 | 28–34 | 35+ |
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| 0–6 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
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| 7–13 | 0.3% | 1.1% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.2% |
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| 14–20 | 0.6% | 2.2% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.0% |
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| 21–27 | 0.7% | 2.5% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 4.3% |
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| 28–34 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 2.8% |
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| 35+ | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
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Winning margin| Margin | Dolphins | Colts |
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| 1–6 | 17.1% | 19.0% |
| 7–12 | 11.5% | 15.7% |
| 13–18 | 7.0% | 11.5% |
| 19–24 | 3.5% | 7.0% |
| 25–30 | 1.4% | 3.5% |
| 31+ | 0.6% | 2.1% |
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Dolphins vs Colts?
The Statz NFL game simulator makes the Indianapolis Colts 59% favourites: they win 59 of every 100 simulations of this game, the Miami Dolphins 41.
What is the predicted score for Dolphins vs Colts?
The projected score is Miami Dolphins 22, Indianapolis Colts 25, a total of 46.8 points. The likeliest score range is the Dolphins 21-27 and the Colts 21-27.
Will the Colts cover the spread against the Dolphins?
At IND −4, the Colts cover in 47% of simulations and the Dolphins in 53%.
Will Dolphins vs Colts go over 38.5 points?
The simulator has the game over 38.5 points in 74% of games and under in 26%, around a projected total of 46.8.
How many points will the Dolphins score against the Colts?
The Miami Dolphins are projected to score 22 points, and they score 20 or more in 60% of simulations.
How many points will the Colts score against the Dolphins?
The Indianapolis Colts are projected to score 25 points, and they score 20 or more in 72% of simulations.
Will Dolphins vs Colts go to overtime?
2.9% of the simulations are level after 60 minutes and go to overtime.
Will Dolphins vs Colts be a close game?
46% of the simulations are decided by one score (8 points or fewer), and 20% by a field goal or less.
How does the Statz NFL game simulator work?
It plays the game 10,000 times from the Statz projection model's spread and total for it, and counts the results: the winner, the score, the margin and every line. Each run is drawn fresh, and the model's figures are what the runs settle on.
Is the NFL game simulator free?
Yes. Every game of the week can be simulated free, with no account needed.